Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellezza
So, here's a theory question: If we decide to call on the turn, should we always jam the river?
I'd say no. If we rivered a flush, would we jam? Would the flush card matter? Like, what if it's the 2, versus the A? I'd think that matters.
If we miss, should we jam? I'd say no, because we might catch a J or T for some showdown value, though either card might also complete a straight, possibly giving us even less reason to turn 2nd pair into a bluff.
If we want to bluff, should we jam? I'd say no, because we don't always need to go huge with our bluffs. I'd rather bluff huge with the nut blocker when the flush comes in, instead of bluffing huge with JTcc when the flush misses.
Our bluff size should match our value bet size. What value hands would you have on the river that would bet huge, the way this was played?
There will be better cards / board textures to bluff, and worse cards / board textures to bluff. We should bluff the better cards / textures, not the worse ones.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bellezza
And if we plan to check back the river, should we have just folded on the turn then? I have a lot of turn decisions like this, and it seems like if we don't plan to bluff the river, some draws must be mucked earlier. That's my perception, but I could be wrong.
If we're only going to bet the river when we make our hand, and NEVER bluff, then, yes, we should just fold turn.
If we're ALWAYS going to bluff, we're calling too much, and bluffing WAY too much.
I'd expect theory to say we should figure out which cards and how many of them we'll be bluffing before we call the turn, and make sure the total range is justified by the pot odds and implied odds.
Like, here, we might decide that we're going to rep a straight on any T or 5, and we might rep QX if hero checks to us on a Q. So we have 9 clubs that will make our flush, plus 9 non-club Q's, T's, and 5's, giving us 9 bluff outs, for a total of 18 cards we plan to bet if V checks to us.
That seems perfectly balanced, at least so far.
If we think we can get stacks in when we make our flush, we'll get there around 18% of the time, which is 1 in 5.5, and we're getting 4.5 to 1 implied odds on the turn, so we're getting the correct implied odds to chase. Things start to fall apart if we DON'T think he'll be calling a river jam when we hit our flush. The less often we think he'll call a jam with a worse hand, the more this becomes a fold.
It's also worth noting that V could bet river when we make our flush, possibly with a bigger flush, and we'll lose. Hard to build that into our calcs, but in game, I think it's reasonable to adjust by decreasing our implied odds. If we did that here, we'd probably decide the implied odds aren't good enough, making this a fold.
The only way to offset the risk of NOT getting stacks in when we have the best hand is by making some assumptions about winning the pot when we bluff. Those are harder calcs to do in game.
We have to figure out what size bet we'll use to make him fold on the river with our bluffs, and how often he'll fold. This also assumes V is going to check to us if we catch one of those 9 bluff cards, which he may not do.
Judging by the line he's taken so far, I think it's fair to assume he'll be checking to us on most rivers. Whatever bet size we plan to use, we need to figure that out before we call the turn, if we're going to do the math.
If we plan to bet $400, there will be $1110 in the pot, so I think that means our bluff only needs to work something like 26.5% of the time to break even, which isn't very often. The larger we go with our bet size, the more often V should fold, and the more often we need him to fold, which is why our default bluff size isn't just all-in. The more often we think V will fold, the smaller we can go.
We'll catch one of those bluff cards 18% of the time, and....honestly, I'm not even sure where to go with the math here. I think we're supposed to figure out what total percentage of the time we'll catch one of our bluff outs AND he folds to our bet, then figure out the implied odds we're getting on the turn, but I can't even do that sitting in front of my computer, much less in my head while sitting at the table. I have no idea how to figure out how often he'll check to us on the river, but maybe the assumption on the turn should just be 100% when we're figuring this out.
This might be a leak (probably), but in game, in your spot, I'm probably just folding turn, because A) even if we improve to a flush, it's not the nuts, B) I hate bluffing missed flush draws on the river, C) there's no guarantee V will even give us the opportunity to bluff by checking, and D) V's bet sizing, although it looks weak because it's decreasing, is still too large for me to want to hazard a big river bluff, especially knowing my table image is usually $hlt.
But if I did want to make the call, with a plan to bluff, I'm probably not going to bother counting all the bluff outs, and no way in hell am I attempting the mental math. I'm mostly just going to be deciding if I can justify the turn call and the river bluff based almost entirely on my read of V and my own table image. If I think V is going to check-fold most rivers, I'll call, and figure out the rest when I see the river card and see what V does.
But, again, that's rare. I'm mostly folding, not hero-calling turn with the intention of hero-bluffing river. That's some kamikaze $hlt.