Not at all understanding the preflop flat. 3 bet or fold, but really probably just fold. Like why do you wanna play A2s vs a very strong range?

Not enough info on the nit or your image, but idk, sure, you repped a jack pretty well. I liked the flop and turn sizing, river sizing is a bit weird, i think youre only repping AJ J9 and 33 thats trying to stack a worse jack, but also people tend to hero call 2x pot less often so if he isnt thinking, he might just fold cuz of the sizing.

This is all well and good, but theres a nit…raising in there? Low PP sure, but the nit will play perfectly against your ace if you hit it, and youre in terrible shape against his range since its probably something like AJ+ KQ and PPs.

Result based thinking??

Not when you start a huge 3-street bluff against the nit after the whale folds.

The problem here isn't results based thinking. It's that you weren't thinking.

I like it. He’s going to have a lot of TT-AA. Having the Ad is bad but not extremely relevant as his range is all bluff catchers with the rare trap. If he’s calling this overbet with QQ then you can call him pre and stack him every time you hit something big.

Did I miss the results (or are you just talking about flop)?

We're talking about two different things here.

One, calling pre with A2s because of the whale, which makes sense.

Two, whether or not we start a potential multistreet barrel on the flop after whale open folds.

OP said he called pre because of one. He never said he was starting a bluff on the flop because a whale was in the pot.

Understood. Not the point I was making.

Calling pre because of the whale would seem to be part 1 in a 2-part plan. What's part 2? Value-betting the whale or bluffing him?

The plan would seem to be flatting pre in order to try to flop value, at the risk of whiffing on the flop and having to give up, unless plan B is to run a big bluff against a nitty PFR and / or a whale who apparently calls down too wide.

First, if the whale calls down too wide, why not raise pre? If a whale doesn't like folding marginal hands post-flop, he probably likes it even less post-flop. Raising pre might get us HU vs the whale if the PFR is truly nitty.

But set that debatable pre-flop decision aside. When we whiff, and the whale open folds on the flop, the plan to get value from him is ruined. What we're left with is ace-high and some backdoor draw potential on a dry, paired board, and a nitty PFR who checks OOP.

So, my point is, calling pre-flop was part of a plan to get value from the whale, assuming we actually flopped value. We didn't flop value, and the whale open folded. Even if the whale didn't fold, it's time to abort mission when we whiff. We should be happy we just called instead of raising pre. We saved a bet.

Changing the plan by running a weak three-street bluff on the nitty PFR after we just flat called instead of 3B'ing pre is just compounding mistakes. We could check back flop, just call or start a bluff on the turn when we pick up the straight and flush draws, and then evaluate on the river.

The decision to run an elaborate bluff on V would be like a quarterback throwing up a hail mary pass when the defense breaks through his offensive line on first down, early in the game, risking an interception instead of taking the sack and losing a few yards.

That’s a lot of word salad but the reality is that it’s good to value bet whales, and it’s good to bluff nits.

RESULT

Hero jams and v snaps with AJo

This would question my own perceived image, maybe your overbluffing in spots and people have taken notice?

Nah that's BS, it's just a standard wgaf, barely postable spot for an aggressive hero. The nit has to have it to call and probably barely if ever heros off OPs . Hero's perc image is likely meaningless, V is prob just a player more aware of his own image and is capable of taking the correct line in support of it --- and then just happens to have it so he gets to win this time.

Haha, well that results sure doesnt say much on whether or not its a bad bluff, because yeah, AJ was definitely in his range and definitely calling. As i said in my previous post, whether this is a good bluff depends on the type of nit, but i wouldnt beat myself up too much about it (except about preflop)

The argument I see for calling preflop is that if we are hoping to hit a big hand (2p+) vs. the whale and stack him, we would like to put in a lower percentage of our stack on this gamble.

However, I don't really like it vs a nit EP raise as the nit will have our A2s in bad shape when we hit the ace quite often. If just the whale raised I would call.

The nit didn’t open from EP.
The nit opened from the CO.

Whoops