Quote:
Originally Posted by bobman0330
Bet $200 on hand 1. Probably fold if you get raised, but it's dependent on where the raise comes from/who makes it. Shove the turn if you just get called.
Not contradicting your LOT, infact pretty sure flop bet/fold is mandatory but here's a thought: Given board texture and Hero's sizing, I think there's a good possibility that hands that beat us (flopped sets mainly) would just call our exponentially gigantic ($45 to $200) flop bet that is face-up as an OP, especially if they're later to act and don't have to worry about giving QJ/J8/87s type hands odds to overcall. The board is rainbow so they needn't worry about FDs.
The only hand that probably raises would be T9s in fear of being counterfeited.
Also, I'd expect most decent and maybe even some fishy 5/5 players to fold TP type hands almost always to that flop sizing unless you have a maniacal image or something, which I don't think is the case here.
So although the flop bet seems mandatory, I'm not too sure about your brick turn shove. You'd have to be pretty confident that V flatted your flop bet with an OESD/Tx or some trash, and I'm not too convinced that it's a good portion of their continuing range given your flop sizing.
Kind of an ugly spot OTT once you get called OTF imo. Every option sucks.
Therefore, in retrospect, I feel a smaller flop bet like $120-$140 in position might be better since it might look like a standard cbet with AK type hands and encourage worse hands like Tx/SDs to call and at the same time avoid us being pot-committed on the turn with a moderate-strength hand.