This is a more general question so I am not going to mention holdings.

5/5/10, pay for time/rakeless environment 2,000 effective. Folds to reg in HJ, raise $30, folds to reg in SB, raises to $150, folds to HJ, call.

Flop ($315): AsJc9s SB bets $150, HJ calls

Turn ($615): (AsJc9s)Qs SB bets $300, HJ calls

River ($1,215): (AsJc9sQs)5c SB all in for $1,400

What has been on my mind is, what does SB do this with, and what does HJ call with?

In practice, because both players are capable, SB could well have KsQx (3 combos) or KsKx (3 combos), granted, at this depth, KQo shouldn't be a 3bet from a theoretical standpoint. But for value, SB has KsJs, KsTs. Maybe KxTx for a straight, but it isn't clear that would be a jam when HJ can have flushes too. KJs and KTs will likely see a fair amount of play as a flat as well, which could further reduce the amount of those hands there by the river. SB in theory could have JsTs, maybe some other flush ombos, but these are just not going to be high frequency 3bets except among the most aggressive players. Sets look pretty thin here too, except maybe JsJx, they may want to go for a less than all in bet.

If I am SB in this scenario, I feel like I am going to have a hard time not showing up with KsQx a lot here. But if my value is just KJs and KTs, I will have more bluffs than value. This is a spot where normally I don't mind being unbalanced though because I feel like when you have the nut flush blocker, overbet bluffs tend to work too often. I kind of expect a lot of aggressive regs to be in the same boat.

So if SB has more bluffs than value, on paper HJ should call with any ace or better. If I specifically had AxKs on am not sure what I would do because my range assumption that SB must have Ks would be wrong and I may just give him credit for betting thinner for value.

Am I overestimating a regs' ability to bluff this spot? Without randomization, it seems really hard not to be heavily unbalanced here. And I just don't believe regs are randomizing much.

Am I underestimating regs' ability to bet thin for value?

From SB perspective, is this a spot where bluffing is not as good of an idea as I would think? Do I just get tank called when they can't think of a ton of hands but can think of lots of single KS hands? Should I also be going for thinner value here too, ehich would help my value to bluff ratio be more balaced?

What do you think about the bet sizings? I feel like they may not be theoretically the most frequent sizes, but they accomplish getting all the money in by the river to extract max value and put HJ is a disgusting spot, so I like that.

I really dislike the bet sizings. Yes, they get money in, but otherwise they don't indicate a well structured strategy. Otf 1/3 range is viable as A+1 broadway flops just smash your range, but I don't think you can go 1/2 with everything, it just gets too much for some hands, for example TT. If you took a polar approach, repping at least an ace, you should have gone 2/3 at least.

I think you overestimated the impact of the flush coming in, the board just very heavily blocks the possible flush combos. There are KJ, KT, JT and 3-4 small scs, those maybe aren't even at full frequency. You have a lot more AK combos than flushes. Anyway I wouldn't slow down much as you often do when the flush hits after an advantageous flop. I'd probably go as much as I feel AK could still bet, it depends a lot on the flop sizing ofc. In this case hp may even be ok.

River sizing is obviously good, but I think you misunderstand the value treshold by a lot. HJ has ~6 combos of flushes, probably 0 straights and not many sets either. You have the ~6 flush combos, but you also have probably all 3 KT and every AA JJ 99, maybe even QQ. So you have a huge advantage and you can go for much much thinner value than a flush. AQ is an easy jam for v imo, A9, QJ is where it gets thin. I wouldn't be shocked if solver just ripped AK on this super clean river. I'd decide what to do with those based on the villain tendencies/dynamics between us.

About bluffs, I think you can barrell off with many hands just because of how many value hands you have. KJs, JTs, T9s, K9s, 98s, TT, 88, 77 with a spade are all good to go, maybe even total airballs like 67cc if you bet range otf. I'm not a big fan of the KQo bluff, it has good blockers but too much sdv to turn into a bluff. Anyway, villain has at least 75% bluffcatchers on the river like weak Ax, KQ etc., you have to make them suffer. The way to do that is to go fairly thin for value and find many bluffs.

I'd expect this to be overfolded by quite a lot, I don't think live villains bluffcatch naked top pairs at all, because you have to be a bit creative to find bluffs while you have tons of value hands. So you might want to trim a few value combos and just overbluff as an exploit.