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5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep 5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep

09-24-2013 , 02:07 PM
I posted this in my pg&c, but think this is a potentially interesting spot. I see merit for all 3 options on the river. I am trying to determine which is the best.

5/10 NL ~2k effective 9 handed

This is a new 5/10 game on a Saturday around noon.

Villain's probable perception of Hero:I am young and bought in for the max. I have been super talkative with a few of the regs. The game is about 30 minutes in and I have raised a ton pre-flop in the first 3 orbits. I am playing 55-60% of hands, winning pre or on flop with cbet. I have yet to showdown. I think I am viewed as a young/aggro/lag.

(V1) The main villain is a middle aged man. We have never played together. I am readless. He has limped/called and limp/folded 1x each. He hasn't raised preflop.

(V2) A TAG "pro" who is a break-even straight forward player.

V1 limps from MP, Hero raises to $45 from HJ with JJ, V2 thinks about 3betting and then flats from the BN, MP flats as well

Flop ($150)
932r
MP checks, Hero bets 85, BN folds and says "I should have 3b pre", MP calls

Turn (320)
9323
MP checks, Hero bets 190, MP calls

river (700)
93232
MP leads 300, Hero decides to take a raise/fold line making it $750

I see merit to folding, raise/folding & calling the river. What is the best course of action?
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-24-2013 , 03:22 PM
30 mins isn't enough time to really establish proper meta to get value here. I would just call even though I don't know how often villain vbets less then you have. Raise is far and away your worst option. Even if you miss value by calling you can just comment on how good your running and continue stealing pots.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-24-2013 , 04:51 PM
wait, what? folding to this less than 1/2 pot bet is not a good option.

just off description, I can see raise/folding river, but readless I'm gonna just call.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-24-2013 , 10:15 PM
readless against a guy who so far hasnt shown any aggression in any previous hands, but has now taken a c/c, c/c, lead line just call.

Assuming this guy is a standard tightish player, and we have seen nothing to think otherwise, if he had a 9 i would expect him to simply c/c river since you double-barreled and he'll be looking to keep in your bluffs or is scared you have an overpair. Leading with a 9 will never fold out better and is he really doing it to get called by A high? Too early to determine but basically 0% chance.

The other most plausible hands are something like A3 which crushes you or a hand like 45.

Bottom line is i dont think you get called by worse when you raise river so just flat.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-24-2013 , 11:38 PM
Call is really only option here
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 12:30 AM
His line is pretty nutted, I would just call.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 02:22 AM
Miami, I thought along the lines of all the other posters here.
This hand in isolation seems like a call, and I don't see where its close, but I could be missing something--it seems like your game has evolved alot since we played.
What is your thought process behind the raise?
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 07:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miamicheats
I posted this in my pg&c, but think this is a potentially interesting spot. I see merit for all 3 options on the river. I am trying to determine which is the best.

5/10 NL ~2k effective 9 handed

This is a new 5/10 game on a Saturday around noon.

Villain's probable perception of Hero:I am young and bought in for the max. I have been super talkative with a few of the regs. The game is about 30 minutes in and I have raised a ton pre-flop in the first 3 orbits. I am playing 55-60% of hands, winning pre or on flop with cbet. I have yet to showdown. I think I am viewed as a young/aggro/lag.

(V1) The main villain is a middle aged man. We have never played together. I am readless. He has limped/called and limp/folded 1x each. He hasn't raised preflop.

(V2) A TAG "pro" who is a break-even straight forward player.

V1 limps from MP, Hero raises to $45 from HJ with JJ, V2 thinks about 3betting and then flats from the BN, MP flats as well

Flop ($150)
932r
MP checks, Hero bets 85, BN folds and says "I should have 3b pre", MP calls

Turn (320)
9323
MP checks, Hero bets 190, MP calls

river (700)
93232
MP leads 300, Hero decides to take a raise/fold line making it $750

I see merit to folding, raise/folding & calling the river. What is the best course of action?
Um, your first instinct was 100% correct. Get ready for some variance though as the table lag, playing against super wide payoff ranges.

Edit: no idea why I quoted the whole op, my bad.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 10:25 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DGAF
Um, your first instinct was 100% correct. Get ready for some variance though as the table lag, playing against super wide payoff ranges.

Edit: no idea why I quoted the whole op, my bad.
By first insticnt, do you mean raise/fold? Or "I see merit to folding, raise/folding & calling the river. What is the best course of action?"

Thanks for the replies all. Maybe this wasn't as interesting as a spot as I thought!

Maskk:

I thought he was fishy and was betting to see where he was at, which he may do with a range of 55-88/TT/A9/2X/3X/99 (but I dont see many of those combos other than quads). I also thought be would fold 55-77 almost always and look me up with 88 (25% of the time)/TT & A9 (always). If he 3bets the river I can always fold comfortably.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 12:28 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by miamicheats
By first insticnt, do you mean raise/fold? Or "I see merit to folding, raise/folding & calling the river. What is the best course of action?"

Thanks for the replies all. Maybe this wasn't as interesting as a spot as I thought!

Maskk:

I thought he was fishy and was betting to see where he was at, which he may do with a range of 55-88/TT/A9/2X/3X/99 (but I dont see many of those combos other than quads). I also thought be would fold 55-77 almost always and look me up with 88 (25% of the time)/TT & A9 (always). If he 3bets the river I can always fold comfortably.
Sorry, raise/fold. You are underrepped, he will think you are polarized, and he could take this line with any pp (once he decides you are a "bully"). And yeah, snap fold to a 3b no prob.

Edit: he hardly has any hands in his range that beat you. Really just quads, 9s full (almost impossible to make these obv) and the occasional 3x.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 01:42 PM
I like it.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 01:49 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jt000
Bottom line is i dont think you get called by worse when you raise river so just flat.
Generally agree tho I can see him callin' a river raise with TT
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-25-2013 , 03:27 PM
Don't agree with the gentleman who said raise/call.

I like the line doe
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-26-2013 , 11:36 AM
Bet way more on the flop and the turn. The value you missed there is much more important in the long run than the difference between raising and calling the river.
Raising is probably slightly better ev wise, but as DGAF said it will increase variance and you might end up in spots where you level yourself into a call anyway after you raised and got reraised if you do this consistently.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-26-2013 , 01:14 PM
feel like getting 3b/bluffed on the river is pretty rare unless villain is a true maniac or sicko. im expecting c/r bluff on river more often
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote
09-27-2013 , 09:38 PM
Raise/folding seems cool, I'd say wp.
5/10NL Overpair on a double paired board, 200BB deep Quote

      
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