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/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep / - medium flush IP 200bb deep

05-25-2012 , 12:48 AM
10-handed $5/$10 No Limit.

All relevant players 200bb deep. It should be noted that the live pro and I have a very very rich history playing against one another for years. I think we both respect and understand one another's games. Both players would be characterized as TAG, with the ability to make an infrequent play for appropriate balance.

UTG old fishy guy limps.
Very solid and successful live pro makes it $50 UTG+2.
Hero has 910 in HJ and calls.
UTG calls.

Flop (pot $165):
355

UTG check
Live pro c-bets $105.
Hero calls.
UTG folds.

Turn (pot $375):
6

Live pro bets $285.
Hero calls.

River (pot $945):
6

Live pro bets $600.
Hero ???

Comments on all streets appreciated! Let me know if any other information would be helpful.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-25-2012 , 02:04 AM
All streets look fine. Call river. I think you're running into TT+ more than you would think. Also, it's quite possible he is barreling AK/KQ type hands to try and get you off a middle pair. Fives and Sixes should hit a really small % of his pf isolating range.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-25-2012 , 02:38 AM
It looks fine, your calls induced more betting from hands you beat and raising would fold out weaker hands. This looks like a 3 barrel semi-bluff from the live pro because it is unlikely you don't raise your 5 OTF and unlikely you hit running 6's. I actually think the live pro has JJ+ most of the time.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-25-2012 , 12:20 PM
How many bluff combos do you think he has and what is the thinnest you think he'd value bet? It's debatable whether villain will value bet TT-AA on the river. He would value bet all flushes and probably bluff some AhXo combos. Assuming a worst case scenario where he's not value betting TT-AA and only has 3 bluff combos his range would look something like this:

Board: 3 5 5 6 6
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 77.778% 77.78% 00.00% 14 0.00 { 66-55, 33, AK, AQ, A8, KQ, KJ, QJ, 87, 65s, 54s, AK, AK, AK }
Hand 1: 22.222% 22.22% 00.00% 4 0.00 { T9 }

You need 28% equity so it's a fold. However, if you think he'd value bet AA then it quickly becomes a clear call.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.333% 58.33% 00.00% 14 0.00 { AA, 66-55, 33, AK, AQ, A8, KQ, KJ, QJ, 87, 65s, 54s, AK, AK, AK }
Hand 1: 41.667% 41.67% 00.00% 10 0.00 { T9 }
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-25-2012 , 12:57 PM
Pretty close between calling and shoving. I could see a good live pro playing TT+ this way considering how it's really hard to profitably play the river after checking, so we do beat some of his value range (and he could of course be bluffing). But if we shove we also win the pot when he has a higher flush, which are another decent chunk of his value range. Stacks are a little too shallow for it to be a fist-pump shove though since it's only a 1000 more and he could get stubborn.

Probably something like call 60% of the time, shove 30% of the time, fold 10% of the time depending on little live stuff/gameflow and whatnot.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-25-2012 , 11:29 PM
This is a good hand. I'm pretty torn between call and shove. I probably wuss out and flat river although I'm sure there is value to be had vs. some villains. Pretty read/gameflow dependent.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-26-2012 , 01:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bluefingin
This is a good hand. I'm pretty torn between call and shove. I probably wuss out and flat river although I'm sure there is value to be had vs. some villains. Pretty read/gameflow dependent.
That's more or less exactly what I did. It actually never occurred to me he could be value betting 10's and better. I figured he would check river. Maybe that's wrong or maybe that's unique to our history, but I was weighing the likelihood he had better flushes vs. AX hands exclusively. In that case, calling is bad. I think it's only profitable if he does proceed this way with over pairs.

However, after the hand, it occurred to me how much I love a raise. He really shouldn't have many or any 6's or 5's. And he should put me on having a hand with some value, be it a boat or flush or solid pair. So from his perspective I "shouldn't need to raise" with the middle of that range. The only difficulty is repping a 6. It's hard to imagine many holdings besides 66.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-27-2012 , 08:38 AM
on turn look back at hand and check to see if you have a heart. raise turn, shove river
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-27-2012 , 09:51 AM
I will call. Turn is a huge bet compared to flop ratio. What is he betting so big on turn that turns into a 600 value bet on river. Well when u call 285 he puts u on flush or stubborn overpair. So with that bad river he can make a huge bet and expect a fold. If he has a flush he cannot bet river unless he's certain ur flush...

Line is too weird I call
Only hand that can fit his description is a5 with a of heart does be bet 5x utg+1 with that
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-29-2012 , 07:02 PM
Don't wanna be a nit but this is not a medium flush, and because of that you beat very little of his value range.

sick spot
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
05-30-2012 , 03:20 PM
Why am I the only one that doesn't like preflop?
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
06-02-2012 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pgcounty
Why am I the only one that doesn't like preflop?
Do you not like it because of the chance we are blown off the hand by someone yet to act? Or even if we are guaranteed to see the flop for $50 with $1950 behind, you still don't like it?
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
06-02-2012 , 05:21 PM
On flop I'd call, call turn. On river fold>raise>call.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
06-02-2012 , 07:22 PM
If we are a little deeper I love shipping the river since he rarely has boats but we clearly can.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
06-02-2012 , 11:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by HustlerLA
On flop I'd call, call turn. On river fold>raise>call.
I can't understand this logic, it's incredibly unlikely the river helps villains hand and if were confident we have the best hand on turn there is no reason to fold river for a reasonable price.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote
06-03-2012 , 02:51 PM
Villain may easily expect hero to float flop with wide array of hands. A double barell should fold out gutters oesds medium pp etc. Once we call turn our range consists of tons o f flushes, slow plays and some medium pp.
It's unlikely villain will bluff that river given our range strength and the narrowness and capped nature of his value range.
And to those saying villain can have TT for example. That's entirely too thin and most sane aka good villains aren't vbetting TT. That's more of a bluff and I'm an advocate of some sashimi thin vbetting.
/ - medium flush IP 200bb deep Quote

      
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