I have $2500 in front of me, everyone has at least $1500-$1800 in front of them...
utg + 1 opens to 35 (hes playing solid and straightforward, capable of making moves, but mostly plays straightforward), good solid player flats on the cutoff, i flat on the button with AQ...
flop is Q Q 4 with two diamonds....
original raiser c-bets $65, cutoff calls....
Please give me good arguments for flatting or for raising here....in the long run, what is the most profitable play?....for the few times one of them actually has the case queen, would it be profitable to raise here? or is flatting and keeping in weaker holdings better in the long run? I also had the Ace of diamonds for a backdoor flush...In this particular case, both players had around $2k to start the hand.
I think this is a raise. Calling after a bet and a call on the flop is going to be perceived as very suspicious. If both of these opponents are fairly capable, you will not get paid off on later streets unless they catch their two outer and then you are behind. Also it is very possible that one of them has KQ or QJ i in which case you wanna get money in now before the board puts another diamond out there or starts to make the board scary enough where you don't get full value on the river.
Raise for sure. They will have a hard time giving you credit for AQ exactly with no 3 bet here and you need to force out flush draws. This hand plays well heads up where you may be able to just call IP but 3 way, you have to raise.
Raise. I guess you maybe lose one additional bet from TT or a 4 on a blank turn, but that pales in comparison to other aspects (charging flush draws) especially with redraw equity.
depends a ton on your image. if you have a loose, wild image, raise, especially so if villains would play back or are generally stationey. if you are all nits i would just call.
depends a ton on your image. if you have a loose, wild image, raise, especially so if villains would play back or are generally stationey. if you are all nits i would just call.
they have to at least consider the possibility that your bet is bluff when you squeeze / raise on a paired board in position. pretty good situation for you.
also raising inflates the pot now, when you're almost positive you have the best hand. your opponents do have about $2k that you need to try to get in the middle after all.
I think it comes down to getting value from decent worse hands vs. getting value from air/bluff catchers. In this case the player you described should have a tight opening range in EP. Something like 77+, AQ+ and maybe some SCs for balance, plus sometimes 22-66 and/or some weaker suited Broadway like AJs/ATs/KQs/KJs/QJs
So lets break down that range. AK, occasional SCs and non-Q suited Broadway is air except for the few combos of diamond draws. AA/KK/KQs/QJs are medium-strong made hands that will give you some value but only KQ is likely to play for stacks. 55-JJ are SDV hands that might give you one more street. AQ/44 are happy to play for stacks.
Now lets think about his tendencies with different parts of his range. He is unlikely to 3-bet his air given your description of him. He might however barrel an A, K or even J. So vs. Air calling is better. Vs. The SDV part of his range its close. He is more likely to call a bet on turn or river with a hand like TT than to Call a raise on the flop with the caller still to act. Vs. The medium-strong part of his range raising is better to get value before a scarecard comes and to allow us to rep the FD more effectively. If we flat flop and bet big or raise blank turn our perceived range is stronger than if we raise flop. As others pointed out, his willingness to bluff-catch will depend on his image of you.
Overall I think maxing value vs. the medium-strong part of his range is more important than maxing value vs. his second pair or air. I would raise.
If he were more aggro and had a wider preflop range I think it becomes a flat.
I have $2500 in front of me, everyone has at least $1500-$1800 in front of them...
utg + 1 opens to 35 (hes playing solid and straightforward, capable of making moves, but mostly plays straightforward), good solid player flats on the cutoff, i flat on the button with AQ...
flop is Q Q 4 with two diamonds....
original raiser c-bets $65, cutoff calls....
Please give me good arguments for flatting or for raising here....in the long run, what is the most profitable play?....for the few times one of them actually has the case queen, would it be profitable to raise here? or is flatting and keeping in weaker holdings better in the long run? I also had the Ace of diamonds for a backdoor flush...In this particular case, both players had around $2k to start the hand.
it'll be pretty hard for him to have worse trips when we have quads. also we don't mind giving them two outs each to hit their full houses if they have pocket pairs.
The reason we need to raise for value here is because this is an excellent spot to bluff and we should be doing so frequently when given the opportunity, at least if villains are the type to give us credit in these spots.
I think a more interesting question is what hands from our flatting range should we be turning into bluffs here?
A player who overflats in this spot with AQ is simply a bad player.
Huge value to be made right now before the board flushes, simply a good bluffing spot you could squeeze bluff in position with.
You can make a play with so many bluffs/so many Q, this spot is like printing money, whether you're bluffing or have trips TK you just can exploit the other players and make the pot big in later streets with the position and making them make huge mistakes (bad calls or lay down value hands to a third barrel bluff eg) because of the deepitude of the stacks
lol, i was in this exact situation when i lost the biggest hand in my poker career. (my AQ vs 44).
anyway, like others have said, this is an easy flop raise. the best part is that it looks FOS, they might not even put you on a Q and try to play back. if they DO have a Q, get money in the pot before a diamond crushes the action.