I was referring to his second paragraph, not the reverse tell part

I see that most posters are advocating a thin call, but I would differ. I think that given history, it's MORE likely that villain is not going to get out of line against you. If he's a good player like you claim, he's sure to consider what you see his image as. A big overbet on the river really polarizes his range considering his image, and he also knows that you have a big hand when you called the turn CR.

Now in regards to the sequence itself, I see the turn check as a check for value. The villain's play really screams AA or QQ here. On the turn, he didn't want to lose you with a bet when an overcard hit, especially since you said that he knew you weren't looking to mix it up with him. He checked the turn hoping for you to make a thin call on his river value bet. However, when you actually bet out the turn, he CRed for value. When you obliged, he overbet to underrep his monster.

This is a leveling game and no one is going to be able to answer this for you. You need to know more about the villain than just a paragraph to answer this. I will say that I think AQ=KK here.

I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean. It doesn't really take expert handreading skills to realize that a guy who calls a raise and then calls a bet on a Q73 board doesn't have too many hands with an ace in them. And given the description of the guy as being very solid and apparently having a fair amount of history with Hero, it seems pretty reasonable that villain would understand that Hero should be checking behind most hands on the turn. Given villain's apparent propensity to fire multi-barrel bluffs, we should expect him to follow up on this turn card with his air most of the time and his checking range is strongly weighted towards hands with showdown value. Thus, Hero should be taking a free card with draws and going for pot control with marginal hands. For villain to check a strong hand (edit: I mean a monster hand) here is pretty bad as he's often just giving a free card for no reason and costing himself value against hands that might decide to make a big calldown. This is all based off the assumption that both players respect each other's game which I thought was a reasonable interpretation of the reads given.

Also, some people have said that Hero's hand looks pretty strong after calling the raise on the turn, but a lot of Hero's range at that point should be draws, since it makes little sense to bet a naked queen and sets will usually be raised on the flop or jammed over the turn raise. The raise is pretty small in relation to the pot size with a nice amount of money behind so if Hero had bet a draw there it's pretty reasonable to assume that he would call the raise with it. AQ should be pretty much the absolute top of what is a very weak range for Hero and villain should be firing again here with all of his bluffs.

The more I've thought about this hand, the more I think you should 3bet this preflop to about $200 almost every time.

The difference is playing this pot with a flop SPR=22 or SPR=7, with position.

If you had 33, would you still be so torn? AQ and 33 are the same hand here. . . .

i dont know that I'd go as far as saying they're the SAME because I wouldn't be shocked to see him show up with AQ here (but I think thats at the bottom of his value shoving range) and given its such a close spot imo the liklihood of him having AQ could be a difference maker in my decision if I had 333 vs aq.

For those that are curious for the result:



I agree with RosaParks in that this hand is just one giant leveling war.

yeah 33 is not the same as AQ us having AQ reduces the chance sof him having AA or QQ enough to make a distinction between these two hands.
glad u called this was an ionteresting hand tho more of the same please, def beats most normal live posts!!!!!!!!

KJ of hearts ?

Your replies to my 33=AQ remark are interesting.

Jshove says that having 333 should make us more likely to call because villain could more likely have an AQ in this spot, increasing it from 4 combos to 9, while simultaneously removing chops.

Sparky implies that having 333 would make us less likely to call because villain could more likely have AAA or QQQ in this spot, increasing them from exactly 2 combos to 6.

Obviously, you're both correct, and it's essentially a wash. Swapping our hand for 33 and inserting one A and one Q back into the deck combinatorially increases the hands that beat us by 4, and takes 4 chops and turns them into 9 hands that we beat.

Overall, therefore, AQ=33.

My point is to demonstrate the different way people treat sets vs. two pairs or even premium one pair hands, even tho they can be essentially the same in value against an opponent's likely range.

Thanks Jshove and everyone who posted in this thread, this is some of the best discussion I've seen here.

My .02: Based on his image, for future metagame I think he has to double-barrel a flopped set here every time, so I put that as the lowest part of his range.

When you call his flop bet I think he puts you on hearts or a weak queen, maybe 88/99 (he prob thinks you'd raise w a set there due to JJ hand right?)

When the A comes on the turn I think he feels most floaters would see it as a good scare card and bet it if he checks... but since an A doesn't hit your range that hard with your flop action, he expects you to bluff at it and thinking he'll get you to fold your QJ/T with his C/R. I mean think about it... if you DID have QJ/99 there that C/R is gonna make you VERY nervous, right? And if it doesn't that is a HELL of a call to make on the river, so I like his line, I don't think he puts you on AQ until you call the shove (oops).

Great hand.

I think this is a fold, his line looks like an enormous hand; this is a set a lot. Unless he had pure air from the flop and decided to hammer you with it, the only hand he can really take such a line with (looked good but now turned into a bluff) is 7hXh; people really don't do this with KQ.

I'm having trouble coming up with many hands you beat.

He's the preflop raiser who got called in two spots, but had no problem betting this flop.

betting out into 2 players on a Q73 flop doesn't really require much of a hand

Whoa, whoa, whoa. If you are advocating bloating the pot on the flop primarily to make the turn/river play easier (by decreasing stack to pot ratio), I must strongly protest!

Edit: Also, do we really want to raise TPTK v a frequent 2 barreller and often 3 barreller?!?!

This part needs more discussion. I'm torn between the two...thoughts?

I said reraise preflop.

Oops, that makes more sense.

Im shoveling my money into the pot so fast here that I get rug burn

IMO this is a set, 33 less then 77, and the reason is the c/r on the turn cuz your hand looks like a NFD and is probably thinking you hit your A and you got a FD to go along with it so your not folding a big c/r, thus setting up a nice river shove on any non Heart.

Now as someone posted before a lot of this depends on your 3bet range and how he likes to play small pairs and wether he likes to open limp pots. Now lets say he doesnt like to play small pairs this aggro in EP then this hand looks like AK-AQ. I dont think a guy with top set bets tht much on flop with you behind him especially if he thinks hes better then you.

Im honestly just gonna play for stacks here in the flop

Lets just get it in now