Live 5/10 homegame

Game is 7 handed there is 1 solid player, one (villain) very solid and very aggro player an then 4 passive fish. Villain and I have some history. One pot a couple months ago we were playing shorthanded and I bet 3 streets with JJ on a J8427 board and he called flop and turn and then jammed my river bet of 600--->all in for like 2k total. Its probably fairly obvious to him that I'm avoiding him to the best of my ability and targeting the more passive exploitable players in the game. He should view me as pretty TAG and possibly overly passive on spots that I could be a bit more aggro but at the same time not afraid to stick my money in an get aggro when I feel the time is right. I arrived to the game 2 hrs after it started and I took a bad beat early on and am now stuck ~1500 an hour into my session. Not sure if villain is stuck tbh but I don't think he was up/stuck much at the start of this hand. Also noteworthy is villain barrells 2 streets fairly often and 3 streets freely whenever he sees fit and I don't ever recall seeing him take this line.


Preflop: Hero is dealt AQ in the CO
1 limp, villain raises to $50, hero calls, limper calls

Flop ($165): Q73
EP checks, villain bets $125, hero calls, EP folds

Turn ($415): A
villain checks, hero bets 250, villain raises to 750, hero calls

River ($1915): 9
Villain glances at my stack and shoves in a stack of blacks effectively putting me all in, hero?

I had 2500 left on the river he obv covered. I felt it was a pretty marginal spot as his line is incredibly strong but don't overlook that he is very aggro plays a lot of pots and does a good job of sensing weakness/uncertainty and applying pressure.

so did you win in the JJJ hand?????

Do you normally just flat the flop against Villian with TPTK? Do you normally 3bet with AK/AQ? How often do you float? I ask becuase I'm thinking villian probably has you on just an Ace and not top two.

Against an aggro villian I'm probably jamming the turn here. In my mind the only reason not to jam the turn is to induce a bet on the river. Now that villian has obliged I think you have to call. What hands are you afraid of?

Yes he made a move with an 8...just gave that hand as an example to show that when he thinks that the majority of my range won't call a shove he'll do it.

I'm typically fairly actively 3betting preflop and villain should be aware of this. I think I do a fairly decent job of mixing up calling/raising tptk and I do a lot more calling against villain for deception. I don't really float much (might need to increase flops floated) against this player in particular. I'm not sure why he would put me on just an ace unless its the NFD (which we know he didn't have the A blocker b/c I do.

I don't really like jamming here at all because with this line I don't really see villain taking this line with smaller 2pr so I think we only get called by a set and fold out any hands we may get a bet out of on the river (and also close him out from a potential bluff). I originally flatted to induce another bet on the river but the shove threw me off a bit because I could see him taking this line with either a set, AQ or a busted combo-draw and nothing in between. Its not the type of bet that could be a thin value bet in my mind.

Does he open with small to mid pairs often? I mainly play 2/5 and even the aggro players usually limp with 77 and lower. AA and QQ make sense for his line but there's only one combination of each he can have. I guess what I'm saying is that I'm having a hard time putting him on a set. My gut instinct when I first read this is that he has AQ and you're chopping. If his range were strictly AA/QQ/AQ this would be a fold, but if he's bluffing even a small percent of the time it's a call. Given that's he aggro and your hand is slightly underrepped, I think he's bluffing enough to make this a call.

This. I don't think he check-raises AA and QQ on this turn and even if he did he would v-bet the river smaller. Also, if he had a smaller set, why would he want to make such a power play on the turn and then jam the river if he thought you were drawing. This smells really like a bluff with KK or JJ...he used the Ace as a scare card and now is jamming the river hoping you will fold an Ace that he can't beat.

Add the history with the JJ hand and I don't see how you can fold here.

Is the 5x BB preflop raise standard in this home game?

call. given history its a call.

If he thinks AQ is in your 3bet range (towards him), then it's a call. Does he raise 33 pf? I'm taking a wild guess that 77 is a std raise for him. Also, what has he shown down when he check-raises? I lean towards a call barring any new info above. When someone takes an aggro line frequently, and there are only a few combos of hands that have you beat, plus history, I think you have to call.

Yeah and not just for this homegame its fairly standard for most liveplay in general.

Agreed that I think a c/r with AAA or QQQ is a bit strange here but why would he need to v-bet smaller on the river? I've clearly showed that I'm pretty strong to call the 500 more on the turn when he's taken such a strong (looking) line so if he thinks I'm strong and he's strong why not move in?


I don't think its smart to completely neglect any analysis of the hand and base our read of the villain solely on history.

Jam the turn

Granted it is a bit of an unorthodox line, but any thought to him having AK? Could be that he bet the flop as a continuation (since it is into only 2 players, one of which already checked). When you flatted he figured you for either a Q (KQ, QJ), draw, underpair to the Q, etc. Then he got "lucky" on the turn and, figuring you for any hand that he now beats, check-raised you. Obviously a little risky if you had the draw since you could check behind, but not out of reason. Your flat of his re-raise appears strong. But if you had a set or two pair, isn't a plausible line for you to raise or shove the turn? Maybe he thought your turn flat was not as strong as you thought it looked (maybe he still put you on a Q, under pocketpair, or the flush draw, perhaps even the nut draw now with a weaker ace then his) and so he shoved the river thinking his AK was good but you would read his bet as weak and call.

why?


I think its possible but not all that likely that he could c/r the turn with AK. I think b/f or b/c would probably be the most likely line taken with AK but regardless I find it very very unlikely that he can find a way to valueshove 2500 on the river with just AK and expect me to a)have less given the turn action and b)call with less. If I had less than AK calling the 500 more on the turn would have been a stretch as is, its unlikely that he can really think I'm willing to stick in 3250 (2500 river and 750 on the turn) all with less than tptk.

I would knuckle down and call, but not be too happy about it. There are only a few hands that he's repping here: AA/QQ/AQ/AK and maybe 77. Due to card removal, there's 8 AK combos, 1 AA combo, 1 QQ combo, and 3 77 combos.

The other possibility that comes to mind is some oddly played combo flush draw like 78, 56, KJ, or 34, but the removal of both the A and Q makes this unlikely.

Barring a specific read, this is a thin call against this opponent.

dead on imo.

Jam because combo draw is real likely

what are the chances that him looking at your stack on the river was a reverse tell? that seems like such a blatant sign of weakness. who the hell goes for a turn checkraise for value as the aggressor without knowing stack sizes and then has to stop and check before deciding what to do on the river? He wanted to make sure his risk:reward was in the appropriate range before firing again.

Furthermore, the ace on the turn hits his hand range so much harder than yours it hardly would make any sense to checkraise for value there anyway because you should be checking back lots of hands.

umm this is 5/10 live poker....

so you folded and he didn't show or what?

Exactly. . . which is why people throw such dumb reverse "strong-means-weak" tells. Somebody doing something so strong as blatently eyeing your stack is more often a sign that they are weak. If it were a quick glance, that's a more honest response and more likely to be true strength.

However, all of this should probably take a back seat to more conventional hand analysis in this case, along with villain's aggressive nature, both of which are saying "call."

interesting...tbh i really didn't make much of it.

He wouldn't NEED to v-bet smaller, but he would potentially WANT to to increase the likelihood that you call. AA or QQ from him are the virtual nuts here, so even with your turn call, he most likely increases his EV with a smaller bet on the river. He knows that you know that your turn call shows strength, so pushing the river (IMO) is even more likely to be a bluff than a value shove from him, especially given the history between you two.

Honestly, I think he has AK, A9 or A7. Does his rtange include AA and QQ? Absolutely. But I don't think you can call the turn checkraise only to fold to the river which versus your hand was essentially a blank.

On the one hand, you have a point here. We're only concerned with this specific hand and what villian might have. You have top two on a dry board. You only lose to a set. Based on pot odds he has to have a set 65% of the time to lay this down. You have a better read on him then we do; if you really believe there's a greater than 65% chance he has a set then by all means toss your hand.

In general though, I'd be more than happy to get my money in with top 2 on a dry board against a very aggro player who's not afraid to make big bluffs. Not only that, but your hand is underrepped by your call,call,bet/call line. I'd be very surprised if villian has you on AQ which gives me even more reason to think this could be a bluff. If this really is a tough spot for you, you probably should have put a raise in somewhere along the way.

Judging by your tone I'm guessing you folded and were hoping to get some reassurance that it was a good fold but imo it wasn't.

i think you r hand looks like Ahxh i can see him trying to fold you off say Ah10h here so i'm pretty sure this is a call, we lose to AA QQ two combos and 77 IMO i think 33 is pretty unlikely. his line looks so strong its kinda bluffy if that makes any sense, i agree we are def beat here sometimes but i don't really see how we can find a fold given read on player

one thing is for sure our hand does not ever look like AQ
underrepped = call IMO