5/10 live second nuts with redraw facing huge overbet from tight passive - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

This type of player can't shove anything less than AK in this spot. Snap call vs. anyone under 30 or Armenian. Fold this hand otherwise unless the guy is significantly tilted or you've been playing ultra Laggy and sense frustration.

I know a fold seems crazy and very difficult to do in a real non-forum setting but this is not a profitable call in this spot. The guy has AK 95% of the time and boat outs the other 5%. If he spazzed out randomly and bluffed you off the hand so be it.

Waiver: This comment could be influenced by the fact that I'm like 0-20 on my last 20 hero calls

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10-12-2011 , 12:42 AM

#27

I'mAFrenchDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,589

Quote:

Originally Posted by sknight

[/B]

Why do the clubs matter? I'd fold and actually feel pretty good about it. Old man never bluffs like this and never shoves 2pr. He made it pretty easy on you.

PLZ do not comment on HH if it's to say terrible things like that.
OFC the clubs totally change our equity, secundo LMAO if you think it's an easy fold ROFL

EDIT : ok i should stfu (

) if most people think it's a fold but WTF if the guy has AK it's just played so bad just getting an action if he coolers someone (and since many of you consider folding even with a redraw that shows how bad is his overshove)

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10-12-2011 , 12:53 AM

#28

I'mAFrenchDonkey

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 1,589

Wow the guy is just lolbad with his flat pre oop, his call on the flop on a flushy board (meaning that the Tc of clubs might not be a safe out) and the shove turn.
I would have called obv (for sure with the club redraw) binked the Tc on da river and trash talk him with a "YES PAPA LA QUINTE" (yeah dad the str8), oh wait your str8 is not good and simply enjoyed to see his nitface turn completely sick because of the river club

But yeah i would have totally ragequit and whine for hours if i miss the club and think that poker is rigged as **** and that drools like this guy can only win on huge set ups like this one

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10-12-2011 , 12:57 AM

#29

SNGplayer24

banned

Join Date: Mar 2007 Posts: 3,582

Quote:

Originally Posted by jimmyvjv13

Don't see what is so difficult about what I said... you said if he has AK that we have 23%, but this is impossible. DUCY?

Unless cardplayer's hand calculator is wrong and I'm using bad numbers.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

528 games 0.001 secs 528,000 games/sec

Board: Qc Jc 4h Td
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 22.443% 19.89% 02.56% 105 13.50 { Kc9c }
Hand 1: 77.557% 75.00% 02.56% 396 13.50 { AKs, AKo }

Still dont get what your point is.....who cares our equity when he has AcKx - Id expect him to peel more AK combos then just Ac ones....clearly Kc9c changes things vs say Kd9d

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10-12-2011 , 08:56 AM

#30

signalstrewn

journeyman

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 309

Any opinions on timing? I feel like the fact that it was a snap-shove makes it less likely to be AK than if somebody thought for at least a little bit and then did this massive over-shove. At the same time its so hard to figure out what other hands he would possibly play this way.

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10-13-2011 , 09:29 AM

#31

AAismyfriend

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 11,841

I have had supernit old men ship on me in this exact spot with sets on many occasions....saying he has AK 100% of the time is ridiculous.

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10-13-2011 , 09:31 AM

#32

feltingfoolz

enthusiast

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 66

Quote:

Originally Posted by AAismyfriend

I have had supernit old men ship on me in this exact spot with sets on many occasions....saying he has AK 100% of the time is ridiculous.

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10-13-2011 , 12:25 PM

#33

bamboo6386

adept

Join Date: Oct 2007 Posts: 1,080

Quote:

Originally Posted by AAismyfriend

I have had supernit old men ship on me in this exact spot with sets on many occasions....saying he has AK 100% of the time is ridiculous.

Ive seen people misread their hands as well thinking they had the nuts.

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10-13-2011 , 05:16 PM

#34

mike dexter

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2011 Posts: 457

Sknight owned this thread. This villain's range is AK.

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10-13-2011 , 05:23 PM

#35

AAismyfriend

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 11,841

Removing QQ and JJ from his range is a mistake, unless you have logged a ton of hours with this guy and are 100% positive that he cannot have those. I have played similar spots to this vs players fitting this exact description where I have had the nuts and have been overbet jammed on by top or middle set. If you are, in fact, 100% positive that villain wont play a set like this, than this thread is a waste of everyone's time, and you should fold obviously.

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10-13-2011 , 05:57 PM

#36

sknight

adept

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 844

^^^
This is where hand reading within a range comes into play. I think this dude's range is one hand, but even if I conceded that it includes top set (middle and bottom set are really pushing it) there is no way he shows up with QQ enough to make this a call. We have about 22% equity when he shows up with AK and about 80% when he has a set. Are you saying he plays QQ this way often enough to make this profitable? Or are you just hoping that this is the 2% of the time he misread his hand or spazzed out?

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10-19-2011 , 03:12 PM

#37

DeeDro Wilson

journeyman

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 227

Quote:

Originally Posted by cmoh

5/10 Live Borgata.

Hero is considered pretty tight, conservative and on the nitty side. I have not shown down any week hands.

Villain is a fairly tight old gentleman who folds a lot preflop, tends to respect hero's raises and generally hasn't made many moves. In a recent pot when hero was PFR and checked two streets he stabbed once IP then gave up.

However, for him to have the pure nuts he would have to have:

(1) not 3bet AK preflop in blinds against LP open
(2) float flop OOP with one player left to act with a gutter and two overs

In my experience, Villains like you describe most certainly will play AK just like you talked yourself into him NOT doing.

I dont really fault you for calling at all, I think I couldve folded to the huge overbet, but Im not positive I wouldve.

Just wanted to say that your description of that type of villain plays AKjust like you thought he wouldnt, in my experience.

Edit: Also forgot to add that villains like this never ship stacks this big without the nuts. They may lose a couple grand over the course of an entire day, but I dont see many willing to risk it all at once

As for him shipping with a set, Id say on some boards he would of course, but never on this one

Last edited by DeeDro Wilson; 10-19-2011 at 03:22 PM.

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10-19-2011 , 09:16 PM

#38

deuce of clubs

centurion

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 112

Quote:

Originally Posted by onedollars

Villain is thinking "Nice, after an hour of waiting, I finally have AK. Ah crap, the nit just raised to 50. I'll just call because AK never hits and I only 3-bet QQ KK AA. See, it never hits! Always J or Q high when I have AK. I'm gonna call because he bet small so can might have 9s or something so I have overs plus if I hit a straight and he has a set I can stack him (plus I have the runner runner NFD **not sure if it's true but possible). OMFG!!!! YES THE NUTS. CHECK IT. Wow he bet again on a pretty wet turn? He must have a monster. Let's see, pot is 850 when I call and I have 1800 behind. Any raise commits me and he could have a set or flush draw...pot's big enough. 'I'm all-in' Omg please call please call please call.

lolz

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10-19-2011 , 09:39 PM

#39

flair1239

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 2,641

Just A question, would there not be a tendency with a guy like this to put AK in hero's range simply because he raised?

If he does put that in the Hero's range, then doesn't that make it less likely he is shoving anything after the turn makes the nut straight for AK... unless he has it himself?

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