5/10 Foxwoods

Haven't posted a hand in a while, this seemed like a good one for discussion.

Hero has been pretty LAG but its pretty irrelevant to this hand. Basically a pure math question.


Villain 1 MP($5500) is very loose and incredibly transparent. He has some sort of combo-draw (i.e. pr+fd or str + fd) literally 100% of the time here.


villain 2 LP($250)is shoving pretty much all 10s and draws here.

hero covers.

5-way limped pot to the flop, hero in BB with 105

Flop ($50): T53

hero bets 40, villain, 2 folds, villain 1 calls, villain 2 moves all in, hero raises to $925, villain 1 calls.

Turn ($2150): 9

So given villains range what's more profitable

a)a PSB
b) shipping

I should add that this villain will not fold to a PSB here with the aforementioned range. And a CRAI isn't an option bc he's not going to bet if I check it to him.

I'll stab. Bet as much as you think he'll call and no more and no less.

take the $925 and buy your girl a new dress ie AI. I wouldnt bet here cause you'll be pot committed on the river and not know where you stand so take down the pot while you're sure you have best hand. However much you bet either 1) he'd be priced in to call his draw (if you bet low), or 2) you'd be pot committed to be AI on the river (if you bet high) so theres really no sizeable bet here you can make other than AI to push him off the hand.

Unless you think you can get him to raise you by betting small I would definitely shove.

Both options are pretty much the same and come down to personal preference + reads

PSB will not give him the right odds to draw but he might get tricky on paired rivers and force you to fold the best hand. If you're capable to make very thin laydowns and think that he will play very straightforward on the river, then go for PSB. This will of course increase variance but saves some money if he has Tc9c or a set for some weird reason.

if u shove the only hands that call u, beat u (T9cc comes to mind)

a PSB is optimal here (or even a little smaller like ~$1600)

**** I hate going broke in a limped pot... 550bb w/T5o... yikes!

is there any merit to checking this turn?

Anything a lot less than PSB will give our opponent right odds to chase which he likes to do.

If he's on a combo draw w/1 card to he's ~4-1 to make his hand so it doesn't take a PSB to give him the incorrect odds to call (1500/3650 is ~2.5-1.) I think what OP is saying is that villain will call that much (which probably makes it correct to bet that much.) Villain chasing isn't horrible, is it? I guess we don't really know what cards complete his draw.

edit: ignore where it says 'villain' right after where hero bets 40 on flop.

No

I'm just including the hands that we beat and worried about him outdrawing us. Of course adding pure flush draws will make it look a lot better but to make it look like especially given description 4:1, no. Letting him chase is good, giving him the right odds to chase is relatively bad. However it's not as awful as everybody makes it sound since we can still fold if he hits and it is better than betting even less or checking. It's not that $ 1600 would be EV-, but given the description of the opponent + $ 2000 is much better which forces him to make a bigger mistake (fold or call ).

so at 30% EQ he needs ~3-1 to make the call... $1500 offers him ~2.5-1... so technically he would be making an incorrect call but I get ur point (coupled w/the fact that OP believes villain will call more makes $2K the proper amount.) The only problem is that a river club isn't the only card we have to sweat in fact half the friggin' deck could make his hand... Shoving takes the hand down or gets called by by T9cc so maybe shoving is the way to go. Thought this hand was easier when I first looked at it. Can we check lol?