possibly interesting hand i played yesterday, wondering what others think

5-10 at foxwoods ~$2700 deep, villain is kinda fishy, has a euro accent, is ~30-35, is wearing a hoodie, looks like he's up on the session, looks like he's probably leaving soon. he plays fairly loose pf, haven't seen him go nuts post flop, just some loose/bad call downs, maybe a small/med random bluff or two and probably some missed Vbets.

my image is probably standard tag, possibly on the nitty side since i've been card dead since coming to the main game

i open $40 utg with 10s, villain calls +1, 2 other calls

flop ($165)- 1087r
bb checks i bet $100, villain calls pretty quickly, others fold

turn ($365)- 108s7 4s
i bet $250 villain thinks for a bit then calls

river ($865)- 1087 4 Q
i bet $575, villain thinks for maybe 20-30s, plays with his chips a little and then ships it for ~$1,700 more

physical ****- i ask him if he has a good hand, if he'll show if i fold and he doesn't respond to anything. i'm sitting right next to him and he looked pretty calm, imo, wasn't breathing too heavily

straights get there (mostly), fds not really possible. its a pretty nice spot for him to turn his bluff catchers into bluffs but i don't think people do that all that often...

my only reason for calling is that he may be shipping worse for value (QT, worse sets?).


edit:
i'm leaning towards folding. guys that are capable of shipping ~2k riv bluffs become VERY apparent very fast in live poker at this level.

My inner station really wants to call this, but physical tells+ hes going to leave soon as a winner and it's a fold, but if he was stuck or evenish I would probably call. There is always the chance he thinks 2 pair is good but I think it is less than likely he is bluffing given all the info.

really sick, I think I fold

can't really see this being worse often enough

I originally thought QT makes sense but that would mean he has the case ten...very unlikely. Plus, the Q doesn't help any straights making it, so why he decided to jam on that river seems weird...if he did have the straight on earlier streets he would most likely have popped you at some point for value. I just don't see him calling behind twice (or even once) with a straight. QQ would have also popped you on the flop or turn.

With that said, and the sizing of his huge shove, it seems like he could be bluffing/thin value-raising. Were he to want value with a huge hand, he probably raises a little smaller. I don't think he puts you on as big of a hand as you have, so he could be thinking he's value-raising with 2p. I would probably end up calling.

you have set of TT? life sucks. physical tells are hard to interpret from forum posts. some people are calm when they bluff cuz they know they have nothing. when they see they have hit a big hand some people get super excited and look nervous. ie shaky hands. They can't hide their excitement as easily.

I think it is more likely you would see QQ here than a straight if you are beat. My guess is that he'd raise you on turn or flop with a straight.

river: I honestly dunno what I'd do. prolly fold cuz people don't bluff shove river that big in live games that often. I don't mind you calling here. I think it's so close it really isn't a big mistake either way.


Since he calls down light/bad. I think I would bet pot on flop and turn. Board is wet and there are a lot of draws that will call you.

The turn call makes sets much less likely.

I see the trouble. Otr you beat most of his range, esp if he is fishy but, the action exhibited, along with the live tells, looks nutty. Have you given up on a multiple-barrel lead recently where this guy is not giving you credit for a big hand?

Very interesting hand. Hard to put him on a hand given his position and only waking up on the river. If the game was somewhat passive and little 3 betting going on and he could expect callers behind him, then 65s or J9s can make sense this deep. Think he pops at some point on a draw heavy board with a straight though. The way he played it almost feels like QQ more than a straight or lower set. Definitely takes a weird line here if he has J9 or 65. This call or fold would be very situation dependant and villain dependant based on history. Hard to tell without being there although as most have said, most fishy live players don't bluff shove rivers like this. However, they do own themselves from time to time with 2 pair and lower sets.

no. not sure if this guy would notice something like that either

Not sure J9 is in that much of a hurry to raise; what's he afraid of? A chop when a 9 comes? I would probably play J9 just like villain a lot (worried about scaring you off your lead with a beluga whale raise when the pot's getting pretty big anyway). Not raising turn discounts 77 and 88 as much as it does a straight.

Id def call - think he'd raise J9 either OTF or turn and QT combos easily make up for the times he has QQ.

If he had J9 he's not calling the flop immediately. He'd need a second to process.

This looks a lot more like 56 imo.

I'm folding without a better read on the guy.

But there's only one T left and villain is UTG+1.

My problem is, aren't undersets/two pair at least as likely (and, I think, more likely) to feel the need to bet as a straight would? Undersets/two pair have to nominally worry about all 9s, and two pair needs to worry about a counterfeiting, putting you on an overpair. Straight isn't worried about much (a nine maybe and some small % of random nonsense).

Thus, I feel like for math purposes, you need to include either both straights and undersets or neither. A range might be [QQ(x3), QT(x1), J9s(x4), maybe 96s (x4), 88(x3), 77(x3)].

So absent the live read about leaving, the straight math says call by like 2 percentage points. If you take out 96 or include 99 turned into a bluff, it's a strong call absent reads. But that live read is contrary.

oops - skimmed the hand so quick and didnt even realize we have 2 tens......yeh Id fold

Getting less than 2:1 to call, and the weaker part of his range (that we beat) is unlikley given the action, it's a fold.

Guessing that you folded and he didn't show?

puke than flip a coin. any chance this guy takes this line with 88/77?

funny how having 88 here is better then TT

i tanked forever on the river debating this and came to the conclusion that he would have raised sooner being scared of a 9 having outs or having a 4liner kill his action. i think with a straight he would be content to just let me continue firing away while he had the nuts "trapping" me

i folded face up trying to get him to show but he didn't, tho a little while later right before he left he told me he couldn't believe i folded and that i made a good fold

id fold

His line doesn't make sense so I'd call

Do you really think this means much? I know that I tend to lie when I tell someone "what I had that hand" when I leave.

All i can say is great post, i enjoyed reading it.

You left almost a grand out there, i know that stung.