Hi,

faced a situation here, what will be the right thing to do?

FR 5/10, about effective 190bb stack, villain reg covered me.

Holding 8Ts
I raise UTG to 30, HJ and CO called. Pot 105
Flop QJ9r
I bet 60, both called. Pot 285
Turn 5,
i bet 300, HJ folded, CO raise to 1050.

Once villain raised on turn, he kind of stare me down confidently, seem eager to stack me off.

What will you do? do not mind any math lesson.

history i can remember of him.
1. saw him donk bet multiway hold top 2 on flop
2. willing to 6bet all in with AK out of position against me, action was UTG limp, he raise, i 3bet, he 4bet, i 5bet, and he go all in. that point of time, my image very tight only 3bet once with AA

Snap call. Check/shove river. Lots of worse hands he can be doing this with that aren't the nuts. No point in shoving here and giving him a chance to fold 99.

Will you consider the dynamics and culture of the live setting where it a small group of players and we more or less understand each other playing style.. Or is it still too nitty to fold... Anyone can show the math behind it?

WAY TOO NITTY TO FOLD!

It's a definite call of not just shove now. If you think he'll bet the river, then call and check the river looking to check raise shove. He's unlikely putting you on the straight considering your UTG raise. And often when a player stares you down, it's a sign of weakness. Not always of course, but frequently.

While not impossible, it's mathematically unlikely he's holding KT. He may have a set of 99's though, if you believe his stare down to be true strength. If that's the case, then jam on him now and watch his head explode when you show your straight.

question- what if ur playing against a catious reg..who wont raise the turn unless he has a straight there? lets say if we swap positions and lets say we have qq.. I wont raise his 300 pot size bet to 1050 which is like 105bb when we started the hand with only 190bb.. I would flat all sets there and see the river card with position... so if that reg has the same thinking than I think most likely 10 8 there is not good most of the time..

The math is based on what hands he is capable of making this play with. You can't talk math until you assign him a range. If the only hand he's capable of having is KT then there's no math needed, its a fold. But if he can have sets and QJ as well, you are ahead. Thats why I said don't shove the turn, you don't want him to fold QJ. Just call, let him think it might be good, and then call his river shove.

I feel like all the hands that you beat in his turn raising range would've raised on the flop, especially given read #1 at the end of the OP

I'm about as likely to fold as I am to be surprised he has KT here; not often. I play 1/2-1/3 though so lol

noted on yr point. thank you.

FYI, when assigning him ranges the suit of the turn card matters (ie does it bring a flush draw in. Nearly 3 out of 4 times it will.)

To the previous comment yes there are some super nits you can fold to here but this villain is clearly not one of them.