V1: Good solid TAG. Long time grinder started started at 1/2. Now plays 5/10+ I think he has had some sucess lately and has been playing much more agressive/loose then what he was used too. He has loosened up quite a bit preflop as well. He defends vs 3bets pretty wide IP. Knows how to hand read and put pressure. In this game he has been opening PF alot.

V2: Fun player. Game revoles around here. VPIPS 80% and calls 95% of raises regardless of amount.

Hero: Super tight image, has been playing snug and super card dead for the past couple of hours. V1 sees hero as very capable/tight player and dont think he expects me to bluff. He has never caught me bluffing atleast.

$2,800 stacks.

V1 open UTG+1 $30, V2 calls CO, Hero SB $175 QT, Both call.
(not a fan of my hand selection here. Probably spew pre, but I dont think its too bad. If we are not squeezing, can we call here given fun player in the hand?)

Flop ($535): Q94
Hero $240, V1 call.

Turn ($1015): 8
cc

River ($1015): 7
Hero check, he bets $450

Pretty sure he doesnt bet TT/JJ here and that he bets at a 50% frequency his bluffs on the turn and therefore he isnt left with that bluff combos ont he river. Yet his bet looks so valueying KQ/AQ type hands. Are we calling?

I think it's fold pre. You say he's willing to call 3bets IP and the funguy is probably even more insensitive...

I like another bet on the river you may get KQ to fold and you prevent getting bluffed like this.

AP if you don't think there are any bluffs in his range then fold. J10,QK+ seems to fit perfectly

Call pre is reasonable, unless you think V1's range is very tight. Squeezing is a definitely (not probably) large spew.

River seems like a pretty sick spot to just shove or bet like 1400 dollars. He is capped at AQ for sure. I wouldn't c/r bluff though. Fold as played. I'm not seeing many clubs here and that's all you beat.

Lets say he gets to the river with AQ, KQs QJs. Thats 12 combos of value that beat us which he is likely to have. Lets also give him 97cc and 87cc so 14 in total.

Were getting 3:1 so need to be good about 25% of the time. So he needs to be value betting or bluffing about 5 worse hands. Theres about 9 combos of JJ and TT allowing for your T blocker, so if he value owns himself about half the time is a call. Its starting to look a bit thin, but its not unfeasible he checks back hands like ATcc KJcc and some of the suited aces, which he can definitely have being so deep.

Yeah I think the bet looks a bit payoff but equally you could be squeezing with AK or some suited ace and brick out, and he may check back turn to see what you do on the river.

I think its a call but its relatively close.

PS yeah not squeezing that pre #nitlife




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your 3b% vs utg is way 2 wide #leaking

Yeah preflop is really bad, realized the second I threw the chips in.. what 4 hours of cardead can do, oh well no excuses

Its interesting because on the river this is what I was thinking of better ~1200. His range is capped at AQo and he knows that I would probably play AA-KK like this which would make this a pretty good spot to over bet bluff. Then I thought I had enough sd value to check it back since I still beat a good portion of his range and I dont expect him to go too crazy and bluff me off my equity.

In spots like this, how do you decide if its more +ev to bluff and try to make him fold KQs AQo type hands, or to check river and get to showdown?

theres 16 combos of KQs, KQo, AQs and AQo, QJs that get to the river. that we lose too, and 9 combos of TT (we block 3 combos of that) and JJ that we beat.

if we bet 1400 on the river it needs to work ~58% of the time for us to be profitable. How do we determine if that will be more profitable then c/ re evaluate and winning some % of the time vs the 9 combos of TT, JJ.

Well to be sure overbetting river would be a very fancy play. C/F is standard. But, in theory, all in on the river could easily be better than c/f because you would win the 1000 pot practically 100% of the time instead of taking your ~50% showdown value. And yeah I'd definitely play KK and better this way vs someone described as "good/solid."

What about a blocking bet on the river?

Work on making your bluff posts a little less obvious.

The bluff post aspect is that I doubt I would bluff with a hand this strong in real life. But it is absolutely a standard overbet spot with your betting range.

you dont bluff to try to gain ev gto wise you bluff in order to keep your opponent from just folding 100% of his bluff catchers

we are not calling, it's an xf. I like Renton's 1400 lead though