5/10/20/ with 40$ btn straddles. Villain is good. One of the best in FL. He staked me for about a year. We don't play pots together for the most part. Very balanced and doesn't give away much. No real reads.

10k effective

Fish limps in mp for 40$. I raise to 160$ with J8
Villain calls from sb. Fish calls.

Flop: 887

Villains leads for 250$, fish folds, I call.

Turn: 9

Villain checks. I bet 575$, he calls.

River 3

Villain checks. I bet 1125$, he c/r to 3450$

What is your perceived betting range on the turn?

Id call.....he can have worse 8x,turn 9x into a bluff (T9/Ad9d)......dont think hed lead the flop with 99.....on paper id def snap this off - live reads/gameflow would be huge

Such a weird line here, I don't know what I'd do. It would probably come down to gameflow. Have you seen him take weird lines like this (donk into pfr, c/c, c/r). Such a creative line that I can't figure it out. What is your perceived range and how active have you been in this game?

There's no real way to know for sure what he has if he's really on of the top cash players in FL and has a great idea of how you play since you were his horse for a year.

On one hand, he doesn't need to be a genius based on how the hand played out to see you are weak. You barely bet 50% of the pot on the turn and river. If you had the FH, you'd bet stronger. On the other, he's offering you nearly 3:1 to call his raise. He going to expect that you'll call a lot of the time.

Of the competing trips, you beat T8, 86-84 and 82. Unless he has a poor opinion of your play, he's not flatting these oop pf. I can see him flatting pp pf. TBH unless he has a soul read on you, you can scratch off him being one of the top players in FL if he has a boat and checked the river. He loses way too much value from having you check behind.

I don't think he expects you to have an 8 in much of your range. In the end I think you have a winning hand on the river over 25% of the time. Call. Just expect most of the time you'll lose.

Call if his 3betting calling range is tight 1010+, AK. Fold if he calls lighter knowing you 3 bet light his range is likely lighter and includes 22+,67s-10Js, AK, AQ.

I am leaning toward him having an op 1010+ or maybe any pp, and is raising river for value. Thinking you don't have an eight.

Can he put you an 8? Can he give you credit for 3 betting light? Or does he put on a overpair? He does know you well. If he can put you on a eight then, turn is interesting, he was checking to induce a bluff. If he knows you 3 bet light he calls preflop light with hands in his range that beat you. And his check raise is real and I would think he has 10Js, or a boat most likely 77, 99, 89s.

But the odds are tempting around 3/1 for a call I think your hand is good a around 30% of the time so call and say nice hand.

Your not folding (beating the strong part of his range, and getting 3:1) so, it comes down to a debate over his range otr. He knows you view him as "best in fla"; he is good enough to bluff raise rivers but, he knows you know this; this "type" of player loves to flat QQ+ out of the blinds, and under rep his hand; his range is heavy with missed draws with a pair etc etc.

The only thing that is interesting and concerning is his sizing otr. He must know you are calling with your range, and that concerns me. I'm calling but, i'm not happy about it.

I think this is the most important piece of the hand as well as how thin you'd vbet the river here. If villain believes you will only bet turn+river w/ 8x+ then it's a clear fold. If he thinks you can have JJ+ it might sway it to a call.

History between you two kind of makes me want to fold, kind of weird that if you two normally don't play pots that he'd randomly one day decide to check-raise bluff the **** out of his ex-horse.

His donk bet could potentially have been a monster trying to induce air to spazz-raise him or get the fish to call him down, and then checked figuring your flatting implied you either had something or were attempting a float. Usually I'm pretty happy to be snapping off in this spot but with the described dynamic I really think its a fold.

I kind of think it's the opposite. Op's hand looks so much like an overpair (pfr, flat the flop) that if villain thinks he won't bet one when checked to on the turn, villain should be leading all his 8x+ for value- it would be almost criminal not to. And the river is a brick obv, so op should snap IMO.

If villain knows op will bet turn and river with an overpair and won't pot control this deep, it becomes a lot more tricky. At this point it really boils down to game flow and villain's river c/r bluff frequency and what he thinks of op's river c/r calling range IMO.

In the end, villain isn't repping a ton (c/r'ing a straight this deep for this amount is kind of sketchy) and his line is kind of bluffy. Maybe he doesn't want his former horse to own him and is trying to keep him in his place. I could def see myself doing this in his spot lol.

How thin is he v-betting? You should know.

This

But since the hand is weird with the donkbet of Vilain's on the flop 3way im not sure Hero will 3barrel his overpairs a high % of the time.
How wide is Vilain's value raise river ?
I think i would call way more often with the turn wasn't a 9, ok he could donk 9T on the flop, but he might donk hands like JT or 65 in order to barrel you out of overpairs on later streets if he misses, but since the turn makes improve JT and 65 he might check to let you valuecut yourself with overpairs.

EDIT : i have made a contradiction saying "im not sure Hero will 3barrel overpairs super often" and he "might C/C turn C/R river his JT 65 str8 to let you valuecut yourself on the river" but yeah im a bit weak on trips boards (it's a 3way) facing a donkbet so i might check my overpairs river (not much value against a good player)

Why C/Ring a str8 is a bit sketchy ?
Hero has not that many houses in his range and can 3barrel many 8s (super deep so Hero can have any K8s, A8s, Q8s (i guess), T8s, 86s and 85s (i guess)

The dynamic and history of straightforward play doesn't bode well for the frequency with which he'll be bluffing. You should still be able to give a ton more info like how he plays, what he thinks of your game, and if he's ever bluffed you considering you've been acquaintances for at least a year. Are you friends? How did you do when being staked by him?

Him value betting worse seems very unlikely given his line. Your perceived range will include lots of overpairs especially since all 3 streets with 1/2 pot bets. Do you think he'd try to bluff you off an overpair here?

The history of two stronger players who know each other and stay out of each other's way makes me want to fold. If he's super tricky and loves turning made hands into bluffs and thinks you fold too much then I don't mind a call.

Anyone like raising flop? Is there anything wrong with having a range of 8x (where x is strongish) and some occasional draws in our flop raising range?

He absolutely never has worse for value. I want to shove here tbh, but probably don't have the stones to pull it off in real time. I think he folds everything that isn't 89/99.

looking at it now it looks like a call. but imagining being in your spot live/real time, i think i can fold this.

i think i'd raise this at the flop. you're deep and it wouldn't be a bad thing getting some more money in there. also it's nice to get a little bit of info from villain's hand by betting or raising with or with out a strong hand.

I don't think he is c/r bluffing, and I agree with AAismyfriend that he wouldn't do this with less for value, so I would fold now.

How about shipping?

that would be the sickest ****

be ready to look like this

yeah i think i shove here...he has to fold basically everything.

Leaning towards folding than calling.

shoving is just downright heroic and you must have massive testicles to do it. I'm fairly certain mine are not large enough for this maneuver.

Also hero should be able to have 82s+ given the fish in the hand, so I'm leaning towards folding now. But still think shove is pretty sick with the proper male enhancement pills.

Because hero was pfr and 8x (that wasn't a sc and now a boat) is a tiny part of his range at this point. He has some overpairs (depending on how thin he v-bets the Phil Ivey of fla without pot controlling any street 10k deep), the occasional float-bluff, sometimes 8x, and the rest boats--> c/r'ing river with something other than a boat or a bluff makes little sense. Also, leading flop and then checking turn with 65 or JT seems pretty lame, not to mention how unspectacular it is to flat pre from the SB with them.

And then for hero to ship against what should be a polarized range makes even less sense IMO. This isn't play money. When villain isn't bluffing (I think he is enough to call here) he has the 2 hands nobody is folding a ton.

so easy fold.

I like shoving, too.

This is one of those spots where you tank forever about every possibility knowing the whole while that you're calling and that it's probably +EV but dwelling over the fact that some significant percentage of the time you're going to lose an 8k pot.

Tank...
Dwell...
Call
Profit