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46cc Turn Super Nuts

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01-10-2023 , 10:55 AM

#26

illiterat

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,502

Quote:

Originally Posted by OmahaDonk

V in bb is decent and very capable. I’ve seen him play 10-20 at a different casino.

We all have bad days/hands but this seems pretty bad with Ad2d.

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01-10-2023 , 11:12 AM

#27

Eskaborr

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,903

Quote:

Originally Posted by illiterat

We all have bad days/hands but this seems pretty bad with Ad2d.

Why? Seems incredibly standard to me. Pre is normal. Even the flop lead makes sense/is possible on this board especially with that hand. Turn is a typical overbet spot with a freq with parts of range, altho this hand technically better as a check with the showdown value and as a way to have nut flushes after checking but betting it is not a big deal, river is a slam dunk lead shove.

Last edited by Eskaborr; 01-10-2023 at 11:21 AM.

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01-10-2023 , 11:19 AM

#28

Eskaborr

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,903

Quote:

Originally Posted by shamir0418

As stated by most I don't know what the flop donk of 20% pot means. Is this even a thing? I might have to give this a try.

On the turn when a good player calls your re-raise it's usually a big draw or sets. For draws I am thinking Ad4d (also a made straight), 6d7d, and Ad6d and for sets I am thinking 55 and 33.

On the river when he puts more money into pot, I am taking all the sets out of his range. He would be happy checking back the river when the flush comes in and the straight was there on the turn. Same reason he just calls the turn raise is the reason he checks the river. This only leaves flushes. So most likely our Villain has a flush here. I have played many times in games that are over 300BB. In these deep BB games, when stacks go in on the river it usually is nuts over nuts. This is even more true when the Villain is a good thinking pro who is there to grind out a win.

I would hate to fold this hand but I think I find the fold button here.

Heads up it is specifically on this board. I think leading this hand overperforms live low stakes multiway

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01-10-2023 , 11:30 AM

#29

Eskaborr

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Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 2,903

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

The real life answers to those questions might be very far away from what theory suggests they should be. We might actually have a spot where the best hand in hero's range loses to the worst hand in villains range.

Nah you are spot on, this runout/action is so favorable for anything that villian should realistically have that pretty 64 is dead here vs all but the most balanced players. This run out is so good for villian that he is suppose to bluff shove AT.

At/74/k6cc/a6cc/a7cc that we block are the bluffs, very easy to believe they almost never show up with this vs MOST players, even high stakes players.

Our hand is pretty dusty, 44 with a diamond and no heart is a superior call

Last edited by Eskaborr; 01-10-2023 at 11:36 AM.

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01-10-2023 , 12:07 PM

#30

Spanishmoon

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,523

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

I don't even think hero has any sets on the turn. TT (if it didn't 3bet pre), 55 and 33 probably raise the flop against the super small bet and 22 might have to fold anyway. OTOH hero probably has most of the XXcc combos he decided to flat pre. Maybe there are a couple that fold on the flop, but everything else calls, getting 7:1 and either having overcard(s) or straight backdoors in addition to the BDFD.

Villain donks 20% pot on the flop 4way and overbets on the turn. Hero raises 3.5x and villain flats. I have zero idea what ranges are supposed to look like here. The spot is so non-standard that it's not even really worth spending a lot of time on it yet it's so interesting that it definitely makes for a very good conversation.

Also when ranges get so narrow, every assumption we make might significantly change the outcome. If we assume that hero doesn't have any sets on the turn and only raises 64s and draws, we lose half our value range just by deciding that preflop he would have 25% fold, 50% call, 25% raise instead of 100% call (oversimplified example).

In the end, on the river there are two main questions to me:
1. Does hero ever flat XXdd on the flop and raise on the turn? If not, 64 is obviously the strongest hand in his range?
2. Does villain ever take take that line without a flush?

The real life answers to those questions might be very far away from what theory suggests they should be. We might actually have a spot where the best hand in hero's range loses to the worst hand in villains range.

Thanks! I learned a lot from this. I think the flop donk is key here and I didn't give it enough weight. V doesn't have enough bluffs and is too flush-heavy with this line. I would still argue that V errs in shipping river, as we have to call a 1/2 psb probably.

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01-10-2023 , 12:09 PM

#31

Spanishmoon

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2011 Posts: 1,523

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eskaborr

Yeah, you're right. H blocks too many of V's bluffs. Thanks for your comments!

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01-10-2023 , 01:33 PM

#32

illiterat

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Join Date: Mar 2011 Posts: 2,502

Quote:

Originally Posted by Eskaborr

Pre is whatever with a hand that makes nut flushes ... wouldn't be shocked if raising is better though.

Flop lead is fine setting a price and dominating every other draw, and we can happily call any raises with ~12 outs, but then...

Turn bet big seems bad with this hand, like Ad6d is fine but this is just way too bluffy and we are targetting 5/3 hands which often turned a bunch of equity and are still IP vs. us ... we have no blocker effects, are we then taking this line with every Ad*d hand that got here?
And then turn call when we have at best 9 outs I guess means V never folds turn?
The fact hero didn't call river donk shove with top of range just makes turn even worse.

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