2-3, 300-1000 buyin. V in bb is decent and very capable. I’ve seen him play 10-20 at a different casino. 1000 eff. Co is very bad reg with 1200 eff

Hero on btn with 6c4c
Pre: co opens 12, hero sb bb call. 4 ways

Flop (48) : Tc5d3d
Sb checks, V donks 10 all call

Turn (88) : 2c
Sb checks, V bombs 100, co folds. Hero raises 350, sb folds. V thinks a bit and calls.

I raised it so big because it felt like he can’t fold.

River (788) : 9d
V quickly ships 650

Yuck

Im gonna leave out the obvious fold or 3bet pre comment

Not sure if this 20% donk lead from V is a thing. We shouldn’t have many flushes with our turn raise, V knows this, really sucks that we block clubs.

I dont know, he’d have to turn 2pair into bluffs here for me to consider calling. Probably puke fold and not tell a soul.

Serious question: if you are sure he can’t fold, why didn’t you jam turn?

Im going to echo what CMV said. If he can’t fold, then jam the turn

At 1k effective shoving 300bb on turn (5x pot) seems like we are never bluffing. Although 350 is maybe the same range but much cheaper for V.

For V Ad4d/6d4d make sense for hands we are beat by on the river and to a lesser extent Ad6d/7d6d. The question is does he play 55/33 this way. Seems unlikely he has any two pair. Also maybe has 6d4x and we are chopping. Given the action it seems very unlikely we ever have diamonds, sometimes Ad4d and maybe sometimes we just call 6d4d on flop but probably nowhere near as much as 6c4c. And it would be a "great" bluff to have Ad6d on turn for hero.

It's not like V should take this line with even something like AdTd, so if he calls turn "bad" with 55/33 because he thinks you never have diamonds and can bluff them I guess we have to call. One of those weird spots where he can't have many combos for value, but you are folding range (I guess must call 6d4x/6x4d if we raise turn this much with that). Wouldn't be shocked if V always has Ad4d/6d4* and we are never winning but sometimes chopping, even though he plays 10/20.


tl;dr Look at turn sizing, it kind of says you have a straight and are super unlikely to have diamonds ... if you have a bunch of bluffs here I think it's fine, otherwise go lower so we do have bluffs or just go bigger.

Folding. Villain hand looks like a flush, and not enough evidence he is calling turn with other random hands / 2p then making random bluffs.

Think we should almost entirely discount sets after tiny flop lead. Tiny flop lead does make me slightly question how capable villain is - i would be a lot more willing to call down river against various flavors of competent whales.

OP: Tough spot; thanks for sharing.

Given description of V, I feel that he would have 3b'd the Ax hands that beat us here preflop from the bb and that he's too smart to play A6s from bb in a raised pot. So that leaves exactly 7d6d and 6d4d. We are too high up in our range to fold, given that he has more combos of 55/33 that he could have donked flop with. He could also play Ac5c this way, for example, although I still think he might have 3b it preflop.

We have a lot of combo draws with which we want to semi-bluff turn. We have taken a polar line. So V doesn't need to ship river and let us play perfectly. V should value bet his nutted hands here, seeking value from our 44/AT and straights and hoping we will jam our bluffs so he can pick us off with the nuts.

So I think V's line is weird and I'm calling getting ~2-1.

Why do you think its bad to call a6s pre here? Literally every suited ace is playable. I guess could be an adjustment to the 4x open. Still seems close to me, surely wouldnt be labeling regs as not very good if they did peel this.

I predict A2/A4dd. Don’t think there are enough bluffs here so I fold.

Matter of fact the 64s button call is much more speculative than an a6s defend from bb

Sorry, I wasn’t clear, I meant for 350 rather than a normal raise. That said maybe he calls all in..

Not sure how to interpret the small donk bet otf.

Anyway, ott V lead-overbets, then calls your 3.5x raise: that looks super strong. If I had to guess, I'd put him on ATdd, A4dd or 64dd.

Therefore, I think river is a fold.

The big question is whether V would play a set like this. I doubt it, but cannot rule it out completely ...

You were clear enough. I know what you meant. But I always ask this question when people call a bet or raise “big” and it’s not all in. I do it to myself too. It’s a helpful reminder that this isn’t pot limit and that when we have value we want to bet the most we can get called for.

Also, what do you think a “normal” raise here is?

275 or 300. In hindsight 350 is less than a pot sized raise so it’s not big. But it felt big in game. But you are right, shove might be better. Puts his combo draws and 2p in the blender. Even sets hate it though I highly doubt he plays flop like that with a set or 22

I think all in is crazy. I don't think your goal should ever be to make the absolute top of his range indifferent/in a tough spot on turn. He can just happily fold nearly everything and you are going to have a hard time balancing it with bluffs correctly and you are gimping the rest of your raise sizings range

Preflop is meh with a hand that has high RIO multiway.

I'm also just calling the flop and evaluating what happens.

Even though it would be a massive overbet, I would consider shoving the turn with our freeroll here. Otherwise cool with a big raise.

Ug. I never play deep so ask me the last time I've faced a single 200+bb bet (I honestly can't remember, and it is slightly possible it has never happened in my 13 years of playing 1/3 NL). But the one note I've recently made of this spot (thanks to paying off a huge 100+bb bet late last year) is that people mostly just simply have it here. Not saying I'm good enough to fold in this spot given these odds, nor that we should. But until the opponent proves otherwise, most just simply have it and we're shown A4dd like always.

GcluelessdeepstacknoobG

Let’s raise flop, they are saying they have weak ranges and we have a nice draw.

Turn looks good

Does he arrive on the river with the naked Ad when he overbets turn and calls raise? Very unlikely. Perhaps the rare Ad4x, but he needs to believe u have the nuts always in order to turn it into a bluff or maybe tryina get u to fold the same hand. It’s a bit ambitious for him to continue ott with the plan of shoving all diamond rivers because u never have diamonds.
Imo he likely has a weak flush.

I would be shocked to hear any regular would fold a suited ace from the BB preflop when they get 4.33:1 on a call, close the action and stacks are >300BB deep.

Maybe some put in a 3bet but I’d assume the vast majority just flats here.

River sucks. Assuming that we would raise sets on the flop and fold 22, our huge turn raise leaves us with exactly straights and hands that turned backdoor clubs. I don’t think it really matters how high up our range the hand is, if said ranges consists of straights and missed FDs and not much more.

Thanks for your comment! It's interesting how much controversy there is over this A6s issue when I think the dominant issues are: what range is the V repping, what is H repping and can we call profitably at this price? (Anyway, I agree that he can have A6s obviously, I just discount it, ymmv) We're getting over 2:1 to call.

Are you implying H's turn raise was a mistake? I'd love to hear your thoughts on this. H offered V 2-1 to call turn; V should have folded his non-nutted flush draws and probably would have fast-played some his sets otf. So the crux of the discussion is whether H has capped himself at a straight/set on turn and whether H has compressed V's range to like 5 hands! (Ad4d, Ad6d, Ad2d, AdTd,6d4d). I guess my point was that he might 3b some of this range preflop and might fold one or two of them. We beat everything else, including his suited Acxs, again some of which he might have 3b pre.

H can also have flushes (like 7d6d) and perhaps even the dreaded Ad6d with his line too.

I'd also love to hear your view of why V has chosen a polar sizing instead of just taking us to value town if he has the nuts. We have some sets and straights that can pay off a value bet. I agree we have a lot of whiffed flushes, but they cannot call anything. Why not target our value on river?

I feel like V has three Ad4x and two AdTx that get to this river this way and 5 hands that beat us. We get 2-1 so it's a call. But obviously it's a tough spot and reasonable players can differ. This has been a good discussion and would love to hear more as it is a very interesting spot. Thanks.

AdTx 3bets pre at times. Also why would he ever donk small with that hand on the flop? That hand hand is very unlikely.

He also never jams a straight without one diamond. Four combos of Ad4x make sense but also Ad5x and Ad3x. Finding more reasons to call now. It’s weird that he would donk flop with a flush draw for such a small size, I think that is unlikely. It makes sense he donks flop with a trash hand that doesn’t want to x/call, picks up equity on the turn and wants to go for it with the Ad blocker….close spot because this is a capable player that plays higher.

I think this is a clear 3bet pre - you have position, we're deep, this hand doesn't play well multiway. I would raise the flop - calling is too passive. The river comes down to what would villain feel he needs to turn into a bluff - he's not turning straights/sets into a bluff, would have to be something like AT/KT which probably check turn/fold to your raise. I'd fold here as played - I just can't find enough bluffs.

fold or 3b pre, fold as played

I don't even think hero has any sets on the turn. TT (if it didn't 3bet pre), 55 and 33 probably raise the flop against the super small bet and 22 might have to fold anyway. OTOH hero probably has most of the XXcc combos he decided to flat pre. Maybe there are a couple that fold on the flop, but everything else calls, getting 7:1 and either having overcard(s) or straight backdoors in addition to the BDFD.

Villain donks 20% pot on the flop 4way and overbets on the turn. Hero raises 3.5x and villain flats. I have zero idea what ranges are supposed to look like here. The spot is so non-standard that it's not even really worth spending a lot of time on it yet it's so interesting that it definitely makes for a very good conversation.

Also when ranges get so narrow, every assumption we make might significantly change the outcome. If we assume that hero doesn't have any sets on the turn and only raises 64s and draws, we lose half our value range just by deciding that preflop he would have 25% fold, 50% call, 25% raise instead of 100% call (oversimplified example).

In the end, on the river there are two main questions to me:
1. Does hero ever flat XXdd on the flop and raise on the turn? If not, 64 is obviously the strongest hand in his range?
2. Does villain ever take take that line without a flush?

The real life answers to those questions might be very far away from what theory suggests they should be. We might actually have a spot where the best hand in hero's range loses to the worst hand in villains range.

As stated by most I don't know what the flop donk of 20% pot means. Is this even a thing? I might have to give this a try.

On the turn when a good player calls your re-raise it's usually a big draw or sets. For draws I am thinking Ad4d (also a made straight), 6d7d, and Ad6d and for sets I am thinking 55 and 33.

On the river when he puts more money into pot, I am taking all the sets out of his range. He would be happy checking back the river when the flush comes in and the straight was there on the turn. Same reason he just calls the turn raise is the reason he checks the river. This only leaves flushes. So most likely our Villain has a flush here. I have played many times in games that are over 300BB. In these deep BB games, when stacks go in on the river it usually is nuts over nuts. This is even more true when the Villain is a good thinking pro who is there to grind out a win.

I would hate to fold this hand but I think I find the fold button here.

I folded and he was nice enough to show A2dd