Make it 525-550. He jams. Ez game

I think I would shove.

Flatting here is really strong. If he is a nit he may either check behind our c/r attempt on the turn, or even fold all but the tippy top of his range (AA) to a donk bet.

I think shove because it may appear more "bluffy" or semi bluffy. If he doesn't have a set, I think checking is almost like a freeroll, as he probably won't be putting more money in after your call, and he's folding to any bet anyway.

I advocate flatting the flop then donking some 1/4-1/3 pot nonsense on the turn to look like a desperate blocker bet. Guarantee he spews those chips all in 95% of the time. We'd be repping something like KT or AT, and that'll be the only way we take his stack if he's holding TT or AK. A re-raise on the flop could too easily induce a fold on those hands that deep. The fact that we can get out cheap whenever the turn pairs is just gravy.

Raising to $700 is fine.

Flatting is also fine.

It really depends on what you want to do. If you flat I think checking/raising is your best line. If you do flat - and turn pairs I'm most likely giving up. If he checks back turn and river pairs - i'm most likely check calling a half pot size bet or smaller. Folding anything big.

you really can't make a huge mistake here so don't read too much into these posts.

We need one more raise to ensure V is committed to our bet on safe turns. $750 seems about right.

I mean, he's not folding the flop, and we have the nuts. We know what he has. He has a set. Everyone in the room can see that he has a set. It doesn't really matter what variety of set.

He's not folding the flop

There's seven cards in the deck that beat us. On the off chance he DOES have two pair, that number is only slightly reduced to four, so I prefer to play on the presumption that he has a set since it's not a ginormous difference in how it will play back, and truth be told, if he has two pair that whiffleballs the board pair we may well get it checked down OTT/OTR anyway.

So, we can already play perfectly against him. He's not folding the flop! Since we can play perfectly against him, let's get more money in now and stuff the turn when we dodge one of the seven cards in the deck that beat us. If he's in the mood to make a hero fold, make him make a hero fold OTT when he already stuffed in essentially what our turn bet was going to be anyhow.

Remember when we flop the nuts vs. a set that there's more cards OTR (He's not folding the flop!!!) that beat us than OTT, so we need to be thinking in terms of two streets (and if he wants to gii on turns we're still ahead, hey, that's OK!) rather than trying to valuetown all three streets.

Remember that in this situation he is never folding the flop - can you tell I was excited about that for you? i was living vicariously - and this are the times we live for in poker. Rather than worry about losing 400BB, worry more about all the shots you're going to buy the chicks at the bar with your 800BB when you manipulate him into stuffing all his money in on the turn drawing quite thin.

Interesting thought process. You don't think he'd still never fold on any non-Q or J turn card? I'm not sure it's entirely safe to take him off AK, but even so, I think we can safely take his stack a good percentage of the time by the river without that reraise on the flop. I'm just too concerned with losing value against AK by doing that.

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