1/2 9 Handed
UTG folds, UTG+1, $250 stack raises to $11. MP1 Folds. Hero in MP2, $750, gets dealt
33 and decides to call $11. Folded to CO who also calls $11/163. BTN who everyone wants to play tilting makes it his standard raise to $30/$400. Blinds fold.

UTG+1, calls $30. Hero calls? $30. CO grabs his chips, begins to tank and decides to shove his remaining chips for a total of $161. CO has shown big fishy/spew tendencies with his first BI in a similar spot and shoved light. Got called. And lost. BTN snap folds. UTG+1 folds.

Hero ?

Reads? If you expected all these raises why did call first time? Second call looks bad at 4 to 1. Now you are chopping or crushed 4-1 and calling 130 to win 250 I think. So about two to one money odds.

So mathematically you make about 65 when has overs and lose 52 when has pair. So range him and decide if he has a pair. His line is weird so more likely overs but you give no reads.... May as well call but previous play was awful.

Edit, sorry you gave some reads, my mistake. Those push it to a call because of pot odds and it's heads up. You are flipping with dead money there.


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Expect to see 66-99 here > 90 % of the time. You got milked

If your expecting BTN to make a tilt raise here, then fold to begin with. 33 is too weak here because BTN isn't deep enough to pay you if you do catch a set. If BTN isn't raising a lot, then calling the $11 is OK but you still need to give up to the $30.

In any case, you probably need to fold when CO shoves. Even if he is shoving light, your coin flipping or crushed. The call/shove is a middle pair a lot in this sort of situation, enough that calling is probably -EV even with dead money in the pot.

Really? So what do you range him on to get that 90pc, as adding just one non pair means 16 non pair v 24 pair. So adding two non pair combos makes a call!

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tough to call a shove with 33 in any scenario, if V is a fish why would you take a flip (at best) vs him?

Because first all variance doesn't matter or we shouldn't be playing at all.

Second of all it's easier to win back money from fish so I'd rather flip with fish than good player in some sense.

Thirdly a flip is fine given the pot odds. See the maths I posted.

This is only bad if the guy really has pairs more often than not.




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easy fold for $30 and epecially to shove.

Don't look to get in large pots preflop with small pairs. Small pairs are good if you can see the flop cheaply. If you know there is a good chance that a bet is getting raised fold. In fact, calling 5x + bets with small pairs, even when they don't get raised, is generally not a good idea unless you are in position, playing a deep opponent, and the opponent will stack off with you if he hits top pair or has an over pair.

Dude we are flipping at very best but really we will going in with a pair vs pair spot.

Calling the first 11 was poor unless you felt that at least a few other callers would be there as well as no iso raises. After the call, the rest is fancy spew. And since it is obvious even to OP that there is very low FE regardless of range, the play cannot be considered.

This is an easy fold and if you expected BTN to 3-bet behind you the initial $11 call was pretty bad too.

Another problem with playing small pairs in a bloated pre flop pot is that it is very easy to get sucked into chasing if you don't hit your set, but pick up an open ender or even gutshot. Also gets tempting to convince yourself that if villain fires a continuation bet on a blank board he is "obviously bluffing with ace king." I know it is tough, but usually the best choice is to just fold small pairs to a bet if you are in MP. Keeps you out of trouble.

calling $30 is completely reasonable for set value. We should be folding to the backraise. it's always strong at 1/2

I don't mind the call of the $19 more once it looks like you're going to the flop 4-ways for $30 each (getting about 5:1 immediate with good implieds), but calling the $11 knowing there's likely a raise behind you, and calling the all-in would be lighting money on fire.

So you saw his hand when he shoved "light"; what was it and what was the situation (who was he shoving against, etc.)?

This seems like a no-brainer. I'm fine with calling 11, possibly calling the 30 in the hopes of busting a tilt monkey, and 100% folding to the 161. I may talk myself into racing with a hand as strong as 88 or 99, but definitely not 33.

Thanks for the comments.
Results.

You're flipping against his bluffs. He has a huge value range against you. The $11 was iffy knowing this action was likely coming behind you. You're in a poor position pre in an aggressive game. Too likely to lose when you don't get your set. Not likely to get good odds to bink one.

I mostly just fold to the open with these stacks. Absolutely folding to all further aggression. You aren't deep enough to profit if you have to put any more money in now.

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

1,712,304 trials (Exhaustive)

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
3c3s	49.67%	840,145	20,855
Jh7h	50.33%	851,304	20,855

Even his garbage is favored over you.

Yes his garbage if suited and connected is better than than us but you understand have pot odds right?

Why don't you stove a range of 44+, aq aj at kq and see how we do? I think you should find we have roughly correct odds.

No one in this thread is thinking very logically. This is only a fold if he has more pairs than unpaired hands. That's hard combinatorics wise. Your read is that he jams with trash which underweight pairs I think in his range. If he really jams with only pairs then accept it's fold. Just because we made two poor calls doesn't mean can't make good call now.

So what are the results? You gave the run out but not his hand?

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If villain is showing up with hands that bad then you do have to call here. For a typical low stakes villain this move is a middle pair most of the time, and a big pair that was trapping a good part of the rest. Even for a bad one this is a pair more often then not, and the non-paired hands are relatively good ones, making this close to 0EV.

But if he is terrible bad enough to be in this hand with something like he did, then he has more non-paired then paired hands in his range. At that point pot odds force you to call. Your going to be less then 50/50 to win, but you will be close enough that the extra money in the pot makes it +EV.

I know we should call it off when he jams, but getting in this spot is terrible.

Ok I agree completely.

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