NOTE: This whole post is very long; my next post makes the same point much more succinctly.

You might think so, but with our terrible position in a multi-way pot, it's actually the other way around. Hoping to flop the NFD is a nice goal, but imagine how the hand plays out when you do. Would you plan to lead with it?

If you plan to check, and BU cbets, do we flat it or raise it? If we raise, 1) we're just pushing two potential customers out of the pot, and 2) we're pulling a semi-bluff in a spot where 2 players have yet to make any statement whatsoever on the strength of their hand and could very well come over the top. If we flat it, we're mostly closing the action on ourselves until after a hypothetical bet on the turn; we might not get another good betting opportunity until the river. And if the action *does* get reopened on the flop, then we're facing an extremely strong range with limited FE OOP.

Even if the flop checks through, you get an extra free card, but 2 of the opponents still have completely unknown ranges.

If you opt to lead, then you're leading into 3 players whose hand strength we have no inkling about, and a raise puts us in a potentially even grosser situation given the SPR will be even larger.

The problem with all of these scenarios is that we don't even have a made hand. We're having to choose between bluffing against unknown ranges or just straight chasing. The bluffing lines are going to carry a lot of risk, which will cut very hard into the EV of our preflop call, and if our plan is simply to chase, then our preflop call wasn't in hopes of flopping an NFD; it was actually in hopes of eventually getting a nut flush, because without the bluffing options, that's our only hope of winning with an NFD.

Believe it or not, just a straight equity hand plays much better in these spots. Everyone plays very straightforward in multi-way pots, so when we hit a J- or A-high flop, we can just play each street passively, gauging the strength everyone is expressing in their hand, until either a raise occurs (at which point we'll mostly bow out) or a street checks through (in which case, we can take the steering wheel and start betting for value; btw, the flop will very often check through). This is highly oversimplified, but basically, when you have a hand that actually has a chance of winning without us bluffing, you can just be an observer and don't have to take the reigns yourself and forge ahead into the unknown.

^ I told you that part of my point wouldn't be easy to explain.

I guess the cliffnotes is: when you have every positional disadvantage in the world, having the best hand is a better advantage to have than having a good "playable" hand.

Christ, it's so much easier when I word it that way!

i felt like we run into the same scenario with AJo here the only difference is with NFD we are actually drawing to the nuts as opposed to just having tpgk oop. keep in mind everyone else has already limped pre to the button so if we flat here we are guaranteed a 7 way pot (assuming the blinds fold) and most likely a 9 way pot where everyone calls so it is very unlikely that button is going to cbet here unless he has tpgk+ if it was checked to him and we are deep against him so we can always evaluate the situation based on how much he bets and how much is in the pot etc etc, i can easily fold our NFD having invested only $15 pre if the odds were not on our side.

simply put i would rather be drawing to the nuts oop multiway than having a medium strength made hand when playing against 7-9 players.

I'm sorry, I got my hands confused and thought this was the one where there were only 2 limpers in front of the iso.

Anyway, you put too much faith in our ability to eval the situation on the flop. If the PFR bets, then we have 4-7 players left to act behind us who mostly just auto-checked to the PFR; if the cbet is high, it seems you're recommending a x/f? If it's low, then that only makes it all-the-more likely that one of the players left to act will raise any hand they think is worthy to continue with to price out draws. It's not going to be a fun spot.

The fact of the matter is that straight equity is going to play better here than a hand that gives us options to make plays postflop. So, the best argument for playing A4s isn't that it flops NFDs (because it's going to be very hard to win the pot with an NFD), but because it makes the nuts sometimes. This is still a strong argument in a pot guaranteed to go this massively multiway when we're a little bit deep, but 6.5bbs is a bit of a steep price to pay to go chase the last 3 cards of a flush when we're going to be first to act every street, and first to act after the aggressor every time he continues.

A hand that is ahead of everyone's range and that has a good chance of outflopping the table plays better here. You can just pay the price to play, hope the board and action runs out well for you, and ride your superior equity share to a longterm profit.

That being said, since BU iso'ed the entire table for 7.5bbs, I think his range is fairly strong (does he really do this with KTo, for example), so I take back what I said and am willing to play pretty nitty. We can 3b our premiums, flat very strong suited broadways and 55+, 3b a narrow range of the best of what's left around as a bluff, and fold everything else. Other people's thoughts on villain's PFR range here are welcome, though.

Im addicted to flops so im calling
Theres nothing wrong imo with occasional moves like you made. we have to mix it up after all. The results?