Live 2/5 1k effective

-Folds to Hero, who makes it 15 on the B with 76
-SB calls
-BB makes it 55 (I have a lot of history with this player. He plays pretty loose post flop but his 3 bet here is basically just 10s+ and AK)
-Hero and SB call

Flop (165) - 655
-SB and BB check
-Hero checks (I think I could go either way here.. but BB likes to c/r this type of board with overpairs. I've seen him take that line many times so I just check back)

Turn (165) - 3
-SB leads for 75 (SB is a solid, young weekend warrior. TAG who 3 bets light to isolate bad players etc)
-BB and Hero call

River (390) - 4
-SB bets 300
-BB folds
-Hero?

I expect some criticism for not betting the flop here. AP, how do you approach the river decision?

Cheers

I'm not sure what you're scared of, exactly. He has some boats, but also some worse straights or A5 or medium PP (i.e. 99). I think it's a pretty straightforward call.

I'm assuming you're debating call vs. fold and not call vs. raise.

There’s a good argument for leading flop when the blinds check. Flop obviously favors their range. So perhaps it’s good to take the initiative.

Turn is ok. There’s probably an argument for raising. A 5 would have led flop. H is probably ahead.

River is close. Wheel draw is possible, so you may be ahead. 54 has boated up. 87s (you block one combo) beats you. I think it’s a cry call.

We paid $75 on the turn to make this hand.

The board was already paired when we paid the $75.

Seems like we should have asked the question before we did that - instead of now when we made one of the two hands we "wanted" to make.

Interesting hand.

Against a range of TT+and AK I think you can fold pre. Not that you should, but I think it's fine. It's not like you're set mining. So I guess if you're calling, it means you're going to wind up making lots of high variance semi-bluffs trying to get an overpair to fold, or putting in money with a pair, hoping he has AK and stuff like that. It's OK to avoid that mess sometimes, imo, especially if, say, you have been losing and the V is pretty good.

Your reasoning for checking flop seems solid. You also have a little extra equity when behind. So it's a little worse if he is doing his CR move and makes you fold. And As or Ks aren't as bad for you if you see a turn.

You could raise the turn. It puts SB in a hard spot with like 88+ or A7 and the BB behind him. Someone should be on a draw. Including BB with AK. You might get called by 44 from the SB. I wouldn't expect either V to go insane with some bluff. It would be somewhat surprising even if someone shipped it with just a 5 (could be crushed, folds out better). Or a boat for that matter (wants to keep BB in and for someone to hit a flush). Assuming they check to you on the river, now you're in control. You can check it a lot. So, let's say SB has some sort of draw. Now he pays and he can never bluff you off the river. In a sense, you're getting those bluff bets now with 100% accuracy. And sometimes you can win a bigger pot when you hit your draw. IDK, it's a cool situation. Depends a lot on Vs.

River seems like a fairly easy call. I don't think SB is trying to get called by overpairs. So he is either bluffing, or just hoping that someone has a fairly unlikley straight or a worse full house. Obviously you block some of his FHs. He might show up with A2, though obviously it's an overplay.

It's a good bluff spot for him. It doesn't make that much sense for anyone to have a straight. He could bluff smaller, targeting a bunch of missed draws and weak pears. But why not really clean it all out?

44 makes some sense, but I think should bet smaller. 54 would be a pretty lose call pre. Quad 5s, I personally, would bet well over pot. Though obviously we can't assume Vs play like me.

Yeah.. imo there was no chance he was betting that amount with an over pair like 88 or 99 on the river. He's either bluffing or has it.. I can't beat anything he bets for value.

I made the crying call and he shows 33.

I had a "feeling" I was beat but talked myself into paying him off. I used the fact that I only had to have the best hand ~30% of the time to make it a correct call. I've caught myself using that rationale numerous times and it usually results in a bad call.

Maybe it's better to reserve those types of calls for draw heavy boards where a capable Villain's bluffing line makes more sense? Especially since most large bets on the river are rarely bluffs in these live games.

I was gonna say, I'd expect him to bet bigger on the turn with a boat. So 33 is a surprise to me.

Worked out well for him. Maybe he was hoping you'd both call on the turn if he bet Small.

I actually think it's a bit of an overplay on the river. He almost folded out one notch better.

Fold river if he’s not bluffy. You beat nothing

Bet the flop. You can call a raise with pair + 3 straight / 3 flush. Can’t MUBs a xr just cuz he’s done it before. He should be more straightforward in 3way pot.

Pre is very std std vs awful sizing, and being IP deep.

Flop std bet.

Ap prob sigh call

@johnny & Minatorr yeah I'm never folding pre for that price IP against this player. And agreed, I should just bet the flop here.. that's where I messed up.