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3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max 3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max

01-30-2017 , 09:18 AM
6 handed sat down for 2 orbits

Hero utg+1: dressed like a complete *******/douche been pretty aggressive as I've been picking up playable hands and am the only one raising at the table (besides UTG)

UTG: seems to be the only player who knows what he's doing I've seen him open to $6 pre and check folded on a 879hh flop, saw him open for $12 UTG (I folded my 55 to that bet) and it folded around

BB: old man who overcalls preflop once he's limped.

HERO: $155
BB: $120
UTG: $65


Hero dealt 10 10

UTG opens to $6
Hero raises to $16 (this would be my normal open size online, just under 3x IP I think it might be a bit small for live, as this would be my open size after 3 limps.)
BB cold calls $16
UTG rejams all in
Standard ISO shove yeah?
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
01-30-2017 , 07:32 PM
Standard ISO shoves aren't standard live. Nor is TT an auto 3-bet, though this short I like it.

If any other V than BB made this play, I'd just fold. As he is both short and competent seeming, I see some AK and lower PPs in his range, so I'm fine with a call. I wouldn't ISO, as anything BB is calling $65 with, he's calling a shove with, and it all crushes TT, so save value cutting yourself X% of the time, imo.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
01-31-2017 , 02:58 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Standard ISO shoves aren't standard live. Nor is TT an auto 3-bet, though this short I like it.

If any other V than BB made this play, I'd just fold. As he is both short and competent seeming, I see some AK and lower PPs in his range, so I'm fine with a call. I wouldn't ISO, as anything BB is calling $65 with, he's calling a shove with, and it all crushes TT, so save value cutting yourself X% of the time, imo.
I think you misread the action, BB cold called $16 UTG rehab for $65 then it's to me with a $150 stack and bb has $100 behind after he cold called my $16 3bet BB is all in for $65 at this point ($80 pot currently)
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
01-31-2017 , 09:09 AM
Nope. Didn't misread it. I'm saying that BBs range to continue after you call UTG's shove and his range to continue after you re-shove are virtually the same.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
01-31-2017 , 09:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Nope. Didn't misread it. I'm saying that BBs range to continue after you call UTG's shove and his range to continue after you re-shove are virtually the same.
Bb isn't the competent player, UTG is.

So I'm not sure what you're saying, call the $65 rejam for half of my effective stack and then let bb come along and draw for free OTF? Am I check folding a high flops? And letting him fold on flops that didn't connect him? Seems like a pretty bad play?
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01-31-2017 , 01:25 PM
I'm saying that BB will usually fold if you flat. It's because he is the bad player and if his hand is worth $65 to him, it's likely also worth $120.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
01-31-2017 , 10:15 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
I'm saying that BB will usually fold if you flat. It's because he is the bad player and if his hand is worth $65 to him, it's likely also worth $120.
so what happens if bb does flat? wouldn't that be a much worse result than jamming and having him call?
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02-01-2017 , 12:05 AM
No, it would be about the same as jamming and having him call, except that now you have the option to fold flop if the board sucks and he jams, or have your choice of jamming or checking back flop.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-01-2017 , 02:13 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
No, it would be about the same as jamming and having him call, except that now you have the option to fold flop if the board sucks and he jams, or have your choice of jamming or checking back flop.
Even if board runs out AKQ can I fold after putting in 50% of my stack AKA ~58% eff stack? Iirc if you're putting in 40% of your stack in 1 bet might as well jam PF.

By calling I don't really know where I am, what if it checks through and an ace comes OTT?

Pot would be $225 and I'd have to call $50 I'm getting over 6:1 there that's ~15% equity to call if he jams flop, with my set outs OTT and river that's 9% maybe I have 4 more for a gutshot, or even give him 5% bluff rate into a dry side pot out of stupidity, I have to call OTF so why let him get away from a flop he doesn't connect with?

E/ sorry I'm not trying to argue with you here, just trying to understand your reasoning/the math behind why you asdvocate a call as the optimal play rather than a reshove
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-01-2017 , 09:08 AM
Don't have time this morning, as I need to head to work, but cliffs are that with the tighter ranges we can put live players on, we can play more exploitative than we do online.

I'll post more this evening.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-01-2017 , 10:01 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
Don't have time this morning, as I need to head to work, but cliffs are that with the tighter ranges we can put live players on, we can play more exploitative than we do online.

I'll post more this evening.
I'm putting live Vs on a much wider range, until they 3bet. Do you advocate a more exploitative approach at 1/2? Rather than GTO and balancing ranges?
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-01-2017 , 10:58 PM
YES!!! Way more exploitative, and never worrying about balance until I see evidence that a V can/has adjusted appropriately. Most live Vs, especially at 1/2, never adjust, and the ones who do adjust horribly, usually by calling more. GTO is a defensive strategy and should only be used if V is capable of exploiting an unbalanced strategy. Even the ones who know what they should do against you don't actually do it very often, as the adjustments that would be correct against a thinking player would often be spew against the rest of the table.

And as for ranges, yes, they are very wide, especially for cold calling a raise in general, but three-bet ranges in LLSNL are very tight, and 4-bet calling ranges are equally, or maybe even more tight.

As for commitment levels, those are rules of thumb based on the idea that once you have 40 percent of your stack in, you will be getting 3:1 POs (or whatever) to call a shove, so you can't fold. That only applies when X:1 is a decent price given your equity against their range. If you have 99% of your stack in with a set and V shoves and shows you a Royal Flush, you'd fold for your last $2 drawing dead, right? Well live V's ranges are like that in 3-bet pots, if not that extreme.

If the flop comes AKQ against an average 1/2 players call 4-bet, donk-shove flop range (AKo/s, AQs (maybe), QQ+), you have about 18% equity with TT against that V, but you only have 13% equity overall with V1's range added in and can easily fold given the side/main dynamics.

Last edited by Garick; 02-01-2017 at 11:04 PM.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-02-2017 , 01:57 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
YES!!! Way more exploitative, and never worrying about balance until I see evidence that a V can/has adjusted appropriately. Most live Vs, especially at 1/2, never adjust, and the ones who do adjust horribly, usually by calling more. GTO is a defensive strategy and should only be used if V is capable of exploiting an unbalanced strategy. Even the ones who know what they should do against you don't actually do it very often, as the adjustments that would be correct against a thinking player would often be spew against the rest of the table.

And as for ranges, yes, they are very wide, especially for cold calling a raise in general, but three-bet ranges in LLSNL are very tight, and 4-bet calling ranges are equally, or maybe even more tight.

As for commitment levels, those are rules of thumb based on the idea that once you have 40 percent of your stack in, you will be getting 3:1 POs (or whatever) to call a shove, so you can't fold. That only applies when X:1 is a decent price given your equity against their range. If you have 99% of your stack in with a set and V shoves and shows you a Royal Flush, you'd fold for your last $2 drawing dead, right? Well live V's ranges are like that in 3-bet pots, if not that extreme.

If the flop comes AKQ against an average 1/2 players call 4-bet, donk-shove flop range (AKo/s, AQs (maybe), QQ+), you have about 18% equity with TT against that V, but you only have 13% equity overall with V1's range added in and can easily fold given the side/main dynamics.
so, given that instance that I fold on a nasty flop and save myself 5% equity, that doesn't include the equity I lose if I were to jam and get called by AK/AQ he misses and I scoop both pots, surely that alone is worth more than the 5% equity I gain from folding to a bad flop?

I did end up jamming, bb only took about 15 seconds to call. I just showed my 10s right away, UTG showed AKo I turned top set, and bb mucked.

I don't think bb had an overpair because he's the kind of guy to show how he got sucked out on by a lower pair, also looked like he sighed when UTG rolled over his AK.
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02-02-2017 , 02:59 AM
50bb max game is horrendous for variance but here I think 3b should be more like 20 vs this V. Once he 4b jams utg I'd probably fold but it's tough this short. Would smooth calling his raise IP be terrible? If he's decent his utg open should be pretty strong and folding to a 4bet this short sucks...
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-02-2017 , 05:09 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 3baker
50bb max game is horrendous for variance but here I think 3b should be more like 20 vs this V. Once he 4b jams utg I'd probably fold but it's tough this short. Would smooth calling his raise IP be terrible? If he's decent his utg open should be pretty strong and folding to a 4bet this short sucks...
I don't ever plan to 3b/fold with eff stacks >40bb based on his last 2 raises I don't see his $6 open ever being QQ+ so I'm a little bit scared of JJ but mostly going to see strong Ax KQs here when he 4bet jams. I'm more worried about the cold call in the bb and what to do Vs his range.

I can't wait to get out of this horrendous game, currently my bankroll is $485 after 2 sessions hoping to get it up to 2k to take a shot at 1/3 100bbs. I don't think it'll be too hard the players are just so loose passive, limping 70% of their range raising 2-5% of it etc
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02-03-2017 , 06:32 AM
Let's say UTG has 99. We have 46 "unseen cards" going into the Flop & we have to dodge 8 cards, leaving 38 that can come OTF, where they miss & we may/may not flop a set.

[38*37*36]/6 = 8436 flops we have the best hand
[46*45*44]/6 = 15,180 total flops
8436/15,180 = 55.57% of the time we have the best hand on the Flop. Actually it's more than that because AK can flop a pair or 2 pair & we flop a set.

However, BB isn't going to always have AKo. He'll have AKs sometimes, as well as JJ. When you shove, you have 38% equity going to the River vs. AKs/o, JJ for UTG & 99 for BB. You're putting $120/$305 = 39.34% of the money in the pot, giving you a 1.34% overlay.
If BB O/R for $6 with QQ you're a 4.6% money underdog.

As far as a $485 bankroll goes, if you GII with a 1.34% overlay preflop a few times, you could find yourself broke. With that tight of a roll, I think you should be going for the larger edge situations. Heck, you could get it in OTF a few times as a 68% favorite HU & find yourself broke. I've lost track of the number of times I've flopped 2 pair, had my V call my flop bet with an underpair to the board & turn a set, a [4%] occurrence.

You may be right in calling with a 1.34% money overlay, but your bankroll can't handle it. Even if BB only has AK, you have 45% equity & lose over 1/2 the time.
.55^3 = 16.63% of the time you'll lose 3 of those in a row. .55^4 = 9% of the time you'll lose 4 in a row, only to have your $485 bankroll reduced to $5.00.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-03-2017 , 10:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ZuneIt
Let's say UTG has 99. We have 46 "unseen cards" going into the Flop & we have to dodge 8 cards, leaving 38 that can come OTF, where they miss & we may/may not flop a set.

[38*37*36]/6 = 8436 flops we have the best hand
[46*45*44]/6 = 15,180 total flops
8436/15,180 = 55.57% of the time we have the best hand on the Flop. Actually it's more than that because AK can flop a pair or 2 pair & we flop a set.

However, BB isn't going to always have AKo. He'll have AKs sometimes, as well as JJ. When you shove, you have 38% equity going to the River vs. AKs/o, JJ for UTG & 99 for BB. You're putting $120/$305 = 39.34% of the money in the pot, giving you a 1.34% overlay.
If BB O/R for $6 with QQ you're a 4.6% money underdog.

As far as a $485 bankroll goes, if you GII with a 1.34% overlay preflop a few times, you could find yourself broke. With that tight of a roll, I think you should be going for the larger edge situations. Heck, you could get it in OTF a few times as a 68% favorite HU & find yourself broke. I've lost track of the number of times I've flopped 2 pair, had my V call my flop bet with an underpair to the board & turn a set, a [4%] occurrence.

You may be right in calling with a 1.34% money overlay, but your bankroll can't handle it. Even if BB only has AK, you have 45% equity & lose over 1/2 the time.
.55^3 = 16.63% of the time you'll lose 3 of those in a row. .55^4 = 9% of the time you'll lose 4 in a row, only to have your $485 bankroll reduced to $5.00.

Wow tyvm for all the math! Is there a website you use for this? I'd love to study the math side of poker a lot more
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-04-2017 , 01:14 AM
You're on the website for that. Check out the EV threads in this anthology and the math threads in the Poker Theory forum.
3 bet sizing too small preflop? 1/2 100 max Quote
02-04-2017 , 06:14 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Garick
You're on the website for that. Check out the EV threads in this anthology and the math threads in the Poker Theory forum.
Can't wait to read through all of those! Thanks a ton for your help!
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