Once villain called me on the turn I was planning to give up the river, but the board pairing on the river gave me some confidence that I can make villain fold some JQ, JT, AJ, AT, J9. KJ is calling me, AK is out of his range since I know he will 4bet me pre. If he slow played JJ+ obviously he got me crushed... but I believe my range is stronger than his and I can even put him in tough decisions if he has a straight. I dont think he has many flushes in his range and I can represent some full house that play this way
If you had a TAG image possibly but if you are perceived as LAG and he is decent you are getting called. Good players call you down more than GTO as you bluff more often than GTO. You make your money by over bluffing weak players and thin value against good players. Real question is whether V is weak or good.
H has taken a value line the whole way here. H offers roughly 2-1 on V's call. The odds are too good for V to fold his two pair+ hands against LAG H.
I would rather take a more polar line, perhaps checking flop and ~PSB turn. H can have top sets, made straight and NFD on turn when V has two pair, Qx draws and maybe a rare TT.
The problem with H's line is that we rep value the whole way and yet V is just calling. We've compressed V's range to hands that are calling us getting 2-1 on river.
I don't think I like it. I don't know that villain is going to have enough folds here. Villain can have plenty of AQ himself, also some trapped sets that are now boats, some flushes, KJs, KTs. Even if we can get him to fold KQs, K9s, JTs, AJs, QJs, QTs that isn't a flush, I don't know that it's enough.
In theory our hand should be a +EV rivet jam, but he has to assume we aren't overbluffing and fold some strong hands. I don't know that is happening, especially if we have a LAG image.
What is the rake structure like? We don't actually need to 3bet a ton, especially if rake structure is not that high. 3bet is too small, should be 4-5x OOP, I like 4.5x vs 3x open raise.
Flop bet is fine.
Turn is the point we actually can slow down a lot. Villain actually has loads of straights on the turn, as well as twopair. KQs is also top pair now. And he can have trapped sets too. Solver actually checks a ton on this turn, mixing check call and check jam with AQ, sometimes with sets. Bluffs are Qh8h, Qh6h. Qh5h which are low frequency 3bets pre. Nut flush draws mix check call and check jam. So our hand is mainly a check fold on the turn.
If turn checks through, our hand is a mandatory river bluff, and we can have lots of hands for value there too. All Kx+ wants to bet some size on on river after checking turn, and our hand is a good hand to balance that out. As played, his turn check call range is pretty condensed and strong. If we check turn, it isn't so filtered, so we have a better shot.
3b is too small. this is also a really easy preflop node to have poor range construction in
really odd sim. flop is fine it wants to range bet, but it wants to basically range x turn. it looks like a good card for u but its actually a really good card for ip. i dont think id have realized that ingame either tbh but it makes sense, he mostly folds underpairs otf and picks up a ton of equity with range on that card. in practice i think u can just bet vs random live and expect overfolds from AT / AJ / A3 / 98 / T9 region and also expect them to peel maybe too much pre and otf. river id just give up with no blockers though, although i understand the appeal to trying to make qt / qj / kq type hands fold. if your hand bets the turn it doesn't give up on the river but it uses a block sizing (mimicking the size it uses with straights / AA otr). that makes some sense to me and assuming he doesnt call qj / kq vs it he's going to die vs this sizing because u said he doesnt have AK from pre (which is a huge chunk of his calling range vs this size otr).
the issue i see with choosing a jam otr is (unless he never slowplays earlier on either street in which case hes mostly exposed) is he only needs to call with a straight+ basically and occasionally AsKx. like yeah you're going to win the pot more often when you jam but its a much easier defend for him and its probably lower ev especially without blockers. i think if you bluff river you want to be challenging his bare top and middle pairs as opposed to attacking kt / kj hands
Last edited by submersible; 09-25-2023 at 01:56 PM.
I agree that the turn is a check, though in the moment, I might have bet it too. It's a good example to learn from because, as said above, we might lazily think a K is good for us and we can keep firing, But if you think it through, he has many good hands here that can't fold even if we are a little more nutted than he is. Like, if we turned a set over his set or 2p, oh well, he just has to pay us. Of course, he has straights and pair + OESD.
Once you've arrived at the river this way, I do like the bluff. I'm not sure he always has AT here, which you mentioned as a bluff target. However, you didn't mention KQ. I think that's an unhappy fold for V. You say he won't fold KJ. Maybe you're right. But I wouldn't be floored to see a guy fold KT or KJ here, even if they usually call. River is a card they were praying not to see.
In game, I'd also just think, I really shouldn't be empty handed here all that often, so might as well bluff when I am.
Your preflop 3bet is very small. In principle V is supposed to fold off a lot of his offsuit broadways like KQo to a normal 3bet size but versus this small 3bet he's probably continuing AJo/KQo and some looser players will call even further down with KJo or QJo -- assigning an accurate preflop range to this guy is incredibly important for hand analysis since it affects the river folds that he can find on this runnout. You said he's a semi-decent recreational player...I would assume that means he's folding off KTo/QJo at least?
Once villain calls flop his range is heavily dominated around the Broadway cards and trapped sets. A lot of his range is now two pair or pair+OESD on this turn -- he should continue his two pair + as well as straight draws like KQ/QJ/QT/Q9, and 98hh/AThh...he could fold off AJ/AT but i wouldn't be surprised to see a live rec get sticky with some of his AJ.
On the river if you jam you're getting getting called by AQ (12), Q9s (4), JJ /TT (6), AThh/QThh/98hh (3) .. so around 25 calls. Maybe 28-29 if you give him some KJs/KTs. Maybe less than that if he doesn't always trap his sets on flop or his straights on turn. His folds are JTs (2), KQ (12), QJs (3), QTs no heart (2) for 19 combos. If he gets sticky with half his AJ on turn he could find an additional 6 combos of folds.
Altogether he's gonna have around 28 calls and 25 folds. You're betting over pot so it looks like a slightly losing jam, but could be winning if he doesn't trap sets/straights. Jam isn't the worst play in the world. Way more profitable versus a loose player who defends QJo/QTo pre.
I think the idea to possibly target the KQ/JT/Qx type hands using a smaller river bet size could hold merit. But it's not really apparent to me it's more profitable because he might find it easy to defend down with some of his KQ on the end versus a smaller bet.
After looking at the river spot it seems you don't really have a profitable bet. Which probably indicates that the turn bet is not +EV like others noted -- by itself the turn bet doesn't generate enough direct fold equity to be profitable and if you cannot make up for it with a +EV river bluff on a pretty neutral to good card, it cannot be a +EV bet on the turn.
Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 09-26-2023 at 04:06 PM.
This is mild punt territory for sure. Hero is taking a very agressive line and repping a narrow/polar range against one of the tighter/more capable players at the table.
River can still be an ok spot, especially against live players who way overfold but agree with other posters that turn bet wasn't good.
Good hand to review even if its, maybe i should flat this hand pre-flop but when I do raise it I should raise larger and plan my post-flop more carefully.
I do think that 30% flop bet, 50% turn bet, 115% river bet is a pretty weird, unnatural line. Even though river jam still has merit as a poker play, i'd generally avoid putting myself in that position, I think I can make better bluffs with different lines and that this can be an ok spot to give up anyways. Villain has lots of hands that connect well with this flop so winning in one small stab is optimistic.
Chaos did a nice job showing river shove isn't clearly profitable even if villain folds some decent 2p hands like kq. I think a decent reg will be capable of finding a few more calls, such as some jx and tx combos, especially with a relevant heart blocker, so i think its even less profitable than him. But i also might range villain a bit wider pre-flop.
1. I've read recently these suited AX like A5s A2s actually go way down in value the shallower you are. They're used as 3-bets primarily for balance and are great when deeper, I think because you make moves like x/r and stop-and-go. Here at 5/10 you're not deep enough IMO to warrant this kind of thing.
2. Your line makes no sense given the runout. J-T-3-K-3...bet bet bet. What do you have? Flop favours him. You're basically holding up a billboard that says "I have either nothing (mostly) or A3 or backdoor hearts that got lucky". And even A3 might x/call river. The nuts changed on every street and your bets didn't = I'd look you up here. I'd probably call off as light as QJ.
At 120bb, you are plenty deep. Even at 100bb. But when you are closing the action on the BB facing just the initial raiser, you can just call a lot of hands wider, and A4s would be a high frequency call.
Pretty much any other position it is going to be a 3bet very often though.
Generally you are going to be prioritizing mixing 3bet and call from the bb with suited connectors more than 3betting with A4s.
This is a connected high card board, which gets more so OTT. Not a good board to bluff as the 3-better. He can easily connect or have draws. It hits his range well. Not a good flop with QQ+/AK, and a lot of your bluffs are suited aces or suited connectors that totally miss it.
lol at the guys saying they would call middle pair here as V
He defined his image as LAG. Change the image to TAG and I agree; change the card order reversing the turn and river card I agree, but as is if you call the turn against this player you are calling the river if you have middle pair.
The beauty of Luz posts is that you never know if he wins or loses until he reveals the results. Half the time he will ask did I punt and Villain folds. Kind of why I like him and Mlarks posts. I think the majority of us are underbluffing in so many areas and the thought processes that go into their ideas are kind of eye opening what might be possible, to me at least.
The beauty of Luz posts is that you never know if he wins or loses until he reveals the results. Half the time he will ask did I punt and Villain folds. Kind of why I like him and Mlarks posts. I think the majority of us are underbluffing in so many areas and the thought processes that go into their ideas are kind of eye opening what might be possible, to me at least.
Even if it worked, it is not a good spot. The river card is good to bluff on, but otherwise it is a bad board for the 3!er.
Even if it worked, it is not a good spot. The river card is good to bluff on, but otherwise it is a bad board for the 3!er.
I have no idea and am learning as I read this thread. Just commenting that just because Luz posts a bluff and asks if he punts does not mean he lost the hand. He is not a bad beat guy posting in here. He is asking about his often crazy aggressive ideas. Im not sure his play ever changes because of his questions, but I think it is good that we get some people posting about bluffs and then why or why not they are good plays.
The beauty of Luz posts is that you never know if he wins or loses until he reveals the results. Half the time he will ask did I punt and Villain folds. Kind of why I like him and Mlarks posts. I think the majority of us are underbluffing in so many areas and the thought processes that go into their ideas are kind of eye opening what might be possible, to me at least.
I did not know that
Def better to be kept on our toes
It may have worked, but you don't want to be stacking off with a 3-barrel bluff every time you 3! light or miss with AK or whatever. JTx is one of the worst flops to do this on.
I honestly don't think it is a punt. The instant call on turn in particular is a pretty big tell that weights Villain away from AQ and Q9 straights, he would probably at least pause on turn to think what to do with those hands. The instant call is still very consistent with a hand like KQ/QJ/QT. If you deweight those straights in the range analysis I posted above the river jam starts to look a lot more profitable.
idk i think its fine / good with reasonable assumptions of how a rec is going to approach pre and a small bet otf. (i think he will be way too wide in the early nodes which justify betting, may also underprotect calling range, and then river is going to be whatever, though i think smaller is better). by far the most ridiculous part of the thread is people saying theyre calling entire river range when they see his hand / thread title. then people saying random things like JTx is bad for 3bettor or that this will never work because luz self identifies as lag instead of tag
Last edited by submersible; 10-02-2023 at 03:22 AM.
