Player is an ok reg, running 17/14 with a 7.9% 3bet over 376 hands. flop aggression is like 3/1/2 by streets and 1.9 overall. we have had a couple battles, but nothing too outrageous. I'd say he is capable of not having the nuts to make this play, but the board is pretty dry. Me and another player disagreed on what's best here, so thoughts? Also, if you are folding QQ here, are you folding KK and AA as well? If you're not, what hands are you continuing with, and are you shoving/flatting?


Poker Stars $3/$6 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $627.00
Hero (UTG+1): $684.75
MP: $930.00
CO: $633.75
BTN: $600.00
SB: $296.10
BB: $815.05

Pre Flop: ($9.00) Hero is UTG+1 with Q Q
1 fold, Hero raises to $18, 2 folds, BTN calls $18, 2 folds

Flop: ($45.00) J 7 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $27, BTN calls $27

Turn: ($99.00) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets $69, BTN raises to $169,

I think the turn is a fold most of the time, which sucks if he has something 89 or whatever or just complete air. But I think most Jx hands are calling rather than raising, or like a skeptical TT is probably just calling too.

thus

These spots are super annoying but I think if we decide to look him up, it should be a b/c, c/c river - because the amount of FE you need given how small SPR's are at this point in the hand is just not going to be there vs. any decent reg.

I'm trying to say that because presumably the only hand he raise/calls with on the turn with is 2pair or a set, and our equity sucks hard vs. that range, we need him to be taking a shot at us a huge amount of the time of so that we collect the somewhat small'ish amount of dead money out there for the times we are smoked.



Let's take this hand for example.

Board: 6c Jc 7d 2h
Dead:


Hand 0: 06.494% { QdQh }
Hand 1: 93.506% { JJ, 77-66, 22, 76s }

$337 = dead money
$486 = your remaining stack after you bet
F = FE%

EV = 0 = 337*F + (1 - F)(0.0649*1209 - 486)
=>
F = 0.55

So, we need villain to fold probably more than 55% of the time to jam turn profitably in this hand. Personally, that seems really high in this situation, which is why typically I'd prefer to call, c/c it off on the river so that a lot of that stuff he was just testing us with on the turn - I guess 88-TT, KQ or whatever, we keep in there and allow him to bluff us with on the river.

this is why i try to take this turn line as much as possible, preferably when 150bb deep or so.

And btw, I think most 'good' or 'decent' at least regs are going to have a somewhat polarized range here between nut made hands and hands that don't at all mind folding. I pretty much don't see hands like 89s, or AcKc being in there.

Yea if you do call the turn here, I think the plan's gotta be to call on a bunch of blank rivers. Otherwise there's no way that that calling the turn and folding to most rivers can show a profit.