3-5 NL, i have midpair and strong FD on turn, call I call aggro villains check raise here?
Join Date: Aug 2009
Posts: 223
3-5 NL, 9 handed
ME on button ($700)- viewed as tight solid player, never makes moves, never shows bluffs
Villain (in BB) $500- calls any raise pf and likes to float
SB $400- loose maniac, will chase anything
i have 9h-7h on the button and call $15 raise pf by SB, 4 players to a flop.
flop comes Jh 9s 4h
all check to me, i fire $25 into $60, 2 callers
turn is 2d
SB checks, BB checks, i fire $65 , SB calls, BB raises to $200, ME???
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 5,936
prob folds, unless you have a read that he does this with a draw sometimes, but i think he would have made his move on the flop.
i think only your flushouts are live, and even they could be no good against SB.
sucks, and i happily stack off OTF, but as this hand played out, iŽd fold.
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 6,715
Flop I'm betting a little more $35-40. On turn i take the free card because of us being called by two villains and it's not a great card to bluff someone off Jx.
As played, I'm not a number cruncher but I'm pretty sure it's an easy fold.
Join Date: Oct 2012
Posts: 247
I think this is a shove. I think we can rep top 2, or a set. Against a passive calling station this is a fold, against an aggro player who is not overly deep, I think this is a shove. We have limited fold equity against a c/ring hand, however I think villian is likely to have a wide range here, given weakness shown by hero and SB OTF and OTT.
Narrowing V1 range to Q10, 108, FD, Jx weak, 9x strong, we have taken away alot of villian 2s outs. If we add the fact that V2 might be squeezing with 9x, 4x, FD, SD, we are going to get alot of folds from our shove.
I also think we cannot discount the fact that live we have more FD than people think. Viliian may fold KJ, AJ, or QJ (all possible 3betting hands given weak post flop play), but are not likely to win an all-in SD. Unless villian is a strong solid player, I shove here, expecting only to be called by NFD, 2pair, or a set.
Join Date: Nov 2010
Posts: 7,462
Why are we betting this turn??? So spewy because of the flop sizing, the only way I bet turn is if I bet large otf, then again ott which puts a whole lot of pressure on any jx with our decent equity.
As played I think we have to fold
Join Date: Jul 2012
Posts: 613
I get that you dont know if you have the best hand and are hoping to win it with a bet and charge draws - but this dude is folding a pair ( most pairs are gonna beat you ) so there isnt a ton of value. Additionally you can bluff catch river if you think its right.
135 more
200+ 65 + 75 + 60 is 400
This is a marginal but likely not bad cawl. If his range includes a bunch of draws then its a super easy jam. If it doesnt then cawl and fold river UI.
You need like 34% to break even on a jam. Assume hes never folding and go stove this **** - and plz post - intersting hand. Additional reads to loose maniac will chase anything would really help in a spot like this.
You cant win if you fold.