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3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise 3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise

06-30-2021 , 12:31 AM
I think I played this correctly, but want to double check the line:

We’ve been at the table for a few hours and have run up a stack from $500 to $2600. Max Buy-in is $2000. 7-handed. Lots of history with both villains today, but somehow not sure how to respond to this weird bet. V1 is very splashy pre and post, but seems to be winning when the cards are flipped over. Hero also has a LAG image if people are paying attention.

Not sure if it affects anything, but I’ve announced that it’s my last orbit before calling it quits for the night.

Lastly, max bet or raise at the table is $600 more.

Hero ($2600) has JJ in UTG+1 and opens to $25.

V1 ($3000) calls in CO

V2 ($1000) calls in BB, this guy is a bit of a station and is on his 3rd buy in.

Flop ($72, max rake reached) is QJ2r.

V2 checks, hero bets $60, both V1 and V2 call.

Turn ($252) is the Kc, bringing 2 clubs to the board. I have the Jc.

V2 checks, hero sorta tanks deciding on a bet size, goes for $150. V1 click-raises to $300 total. V2 hems and haws about wanting to call for like 2 min before folding.

Hero??
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
06-30-2021 , 12:56 AM
I would say call. When you have a set on the turn and are up against a straight, you're about 1:5 to improve. The pot is $550 and $150 to call, which is a touch less than 4:1.

All that assumes V had AT, or T9 (which is consistent). I'm unsure what to do on the river, if we don't improve - which is a problem, I know.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
06-30-2021 , 07:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
I would say call. When you have a set on the turn and are up against a straight, you're about 1:5 to improve. The pot is $550 and $150 to call, which is a touch less than 4:1.

All that assumes V had AT, or T9 (which is consistent). I'm unsure what to do on the river, if we don't improve - which is a problem, I know.
This. No way I fold yet. And we could be ahead -- he could be fishing w/ two pair, big draw, etc.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
06-30-2021 , 09:03 AM
I'm clearly not folding and clearly not raising here so let's evaluate the river. Planning to call a reasonable size on a brick and perhaps make a hero fold if he bets huge or we get a crappy river.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
06-30-2021 , 04:57 PM
Flop bet too big, cant bet 150 on this turn. Call the click I suppose but it's not even clear that KQ are clean outs, but he's still prob betting 500+ on most rivers and it's not going to be clear on the nutchanging ones where you stand.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
06-30-2021 , 10:15 PM
Because of the game structure, It's 'only' another 750 max if we want to go pure bluffcatcher T&R. To win in that case a final pot of 2052. Vs. putting our 2600 stack at risk.

Do we think we'll have, what? 30% on the river against his range?
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 04:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JayKon
I would say call. When you have a set on the turn and are up against a straight, you're about 1:5 to improve. The pot is $550 and $150 to call, which is a touch less than 4:1.

All that assumes V had AT, or T9 (which is consistent). I'm unsure what to do on the river, if we don't improve - which is a problem, I know.
Odds of boating up are 3.4:1 (10 outs from 44 unseen cards), and the pot is 700/150 to call, so we’re getting 4.6:1 on the call.

Definitely an easy call on the turn, getting direct odds to call.. Also unsure of what to do on river. Prob check/evaluate on blanks… our action will depend on opponent sizing.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 01:22 PM
easiest call ever? raising here, while OOP super deep and V1 has arguably more straights in his range than you, sounds pretty bad.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 01:42 PM
I guess my line of thinking was way different than others here. I was imagining that this was easily a “feeler” raise with AK, KT, or A2cc. It’s also possible that he floated the flop with something like A5cc and is preparing a weird bluff. I also don’t know how I’d feel about K and Q rivers since KQ could be in his range as well. Maybe I was even way ahead of 22?

However it appears that most of you predicted that this is only ever a straight. Could one of you elaborate on why this is a straight more often than not?

In the end, I did call, the 6d came on the river, I checked, he bet $425 fairly quickly. Hero?
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 01:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PIK4CHU
I guess my line of thinking was way different than others here. I was imagining that this was easily a “feeler” raise with AK, KT, or A2cc. It’s also possible that he floated the flop with something like A5cc and is preparing a weird bluff. I also don’t know how I’d feel about K and Q rivers since KQ could be in his range as well. Maybe I was even way ahead of 22?

However it appears that most of you predicted that this is only ever a straight. Could one of you elaborate on why this is a straight more often than not?

In the end, I did call, the 6d came on the river, I checked, he bet $425 fairly quickly. Hero?
It's not that V has a straight here all the time. But it's definitely a real part of his range. You have the best hand here so often, but a 3b folds out most of the hands that you have a big equity advantage over. What calls a 3b to 900? Also, how difficult will it be to play the river with 1 psb behind and OOP? Any A, T, 9, club, even K or Q will be complicated.

as played, a snap is ok. I sorta like a raise/fold to 1000, but you're probably only getting called by KQ and straights.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by PIK4CHU
I guess my line of thinking was way different than others here. I was imagining that this was easily a “feeler” raise with AK, KT, or A2cc. It’s also possible that he floated the flop with something like A5cc and is preparing a weird bluff. I also don’t know how I’d feel about K and Q rivers since KQ could be in his range as well. Maybe I was even way ahead of 22?

However it appears that most of you predicted that this is only ever a straight. Could one of you elaborate on why this is a straight more often than not?

In the end, I did call, the 6d came on the river, I checked, he bet $425 fairly quickly. Hero?
Line and sizing make it real tough to imagine this is air - the fact the overcalling station was in the BB makes this more value than any semi-bluff type thing (like NFD), but that fact also might have him calling more AcX type hands pre that MIGHT do this...he might even have some QQ/KK at some frequency, but overall that's just low freq stuff that mostly cancel out.
Not helping, is that AT/T9s are likely 100% calls pre and extremely high frequency flop calls + turn raises + smallish bet otr.
His range is likely very much what you imagine it to be, but less bluffy than I think you think.

That said, I mean, you're likely losing, but if you range him as having a good amount of worse for value and bluffs then flick.

I think betting less otf and less ott would have been a nicer way to play your range here.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 05:49 PM
I don’t think this is always a straight. Sometimes it’s an overplayed KQ.. We’re getting a decent price, so I’d call. I don’t think it’s a fist pump the dealer sort of situation though.

About why this is a straight more often than not, Villain likely has all 32 combos of AT/T9 in preflop range. All of his T9 continue on the flop, and given he’s a station he probably also calls all of his AT. So he has 32 combos of straights. Worse value is much fewer combos: just 9 combos of KQ, and 3 combos of KJ. His 22/QJ probably raise flop facing a bet and V1s call. Then he has some bluffs, maybe AcXc (though how many continue to your flop bet. It’s hard to say…)

Altogether his range is pretty straight heavy. But we probably win a bit more than 25% of the time, so we’re obligated to call.

Last edited by ChaosInEquilibrium; 07-01-2021 at 05:57 PM.
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote
07-01-2021 , 11:14 PM
Results: I called and villain had the ATcc for the nuts, with the backdoor flush draw to boot. Bummer way to end the session!
3/5, JJ hits a set and sees a click-raise Quote

      
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