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3/5: How much should I bet here ? 3/5: How much should I bet here ?

08-29-2018 , 01:37 AM
Effective stack is $1100. I have 99s in middle position and I open for $30. I get one caller in late position. Folds to Villain in big blind, who makes it $80. He just joined the table and he has been raising few hands that he has played. He just won a big hand with AK. I don't think he is a loose player but it's only $50 more and I can set mine, and play in position with our stack sizes. So I make the call and the other player folds.

Pot is about $200. Flop comes 887, two diamonds. He bets $80 and I make the call.

Pot is $360. Turn brings a 9x. He bets $235. I know he has a strong hand, possibly a big over pair. I tank call.

Pot is $830. River is a Tx. He checks. He has about $700 behind and I cover him. I didn't like the T because it completes some straight and I can't make a big bet. Shoving will polarize my range but since I don't have any history on the player and looks like he has given up I want to bet smaller like $300-$400 and get paid. But should I shove here and make it look like a bluff? Maybe missed flush draw?
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08-29-2018 , 03:14 AM
I think shoving is best. You're going to have to bet really small to get crying calls from an overpair Your best hope is something like that he checked JJ because he was worried that nothing worse could call, which is pretty reasonable, or that he brain-explosions and calls with something dumb like an overpair.
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08-29-2018 , 05:36 AM
Shove
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08-29-2018 , 11:05 AM
Bout tree fiddy


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08-29-2018 , 12:52 PM
I’m all in!

We can still rep bricked diamonds


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08-29-2018 , 01:07 PM
Raise/shove turn, like we would if we had a combo draw.
Also, because half the deck likely kills our action. But i'm guessing OP already knew that :P.

AP otr, I think i'd prefer a 1/2 pot bet, but shove is fine also obviously.
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08-29-2018 , 02:08 PM
I think the time to get value was on the turn when you thought he had a strong hand. How could he fold to a min-raise there? Although I would make it more like $300 on top. Nothing like raising with the 2nd nutz OTT.
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08-29-2018 , 02:19 PM
Oh, easy shove. Love this spot
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08-29-2018 , 06:14 PM
Ship it. Harrington showed years ago that if you don't know what size of bet is the best when you have the near nuts, shoving is the most profitable choice.
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08-29-2018 , 07:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viral25
Raise/shove turn, like we would if we had a combo draw.
Also, because half the deck likely kills our action. But i'm guessing OP already knew that :P.
+1. Board is connected enough OTT that we can rep lots of draws to balance. He is more likely to GII now with an overpair.

Any reads on V? If he's a typical V, then shoving is fine, but if he is decent I go 400-500 since he knows he beats very little on that runout.
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08-29-2018 , 07:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ChrisV
I think shoving is best. You're going to have to bet really small to get crying calls from an overpair Your best hope is something like that he checked JJ because he was worried that nothing worse could call, which is pretty reasonable, or that he brain-explosions and calls with something dumb like an overpair.
Really don't see a lot of V's sizing 3bets this small OOP with JJ. IMO, That's a price you in 3bet with KK+
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08-29-2018 , 07:51 PM
This may seem results oriented, but I think you should jam the turn. Specifically because of the straight and flush draws out there. For one thing, your opponent might call with a pair+draw and have substantially fewer outs than they thought. And also they can call with an overpair putting you on a draw.

As played... I guess bet small since you're almost never bluffing. Something like 1/4th pot.
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08-29-2018 , 08:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ImAllInNow
This may seem results oriented, but I think you should jam the turn. Specifically because of the straight and flush draws out there. For one thing, your opponent might call with a pair+draw and have substantially fewer outs than they thought. And also they can call with an overpair putting you on a draw.

As played... I guess bet small since you're almost never bluffing. Something like 1/4th pot.
definitely jam the turn. that's why we called the flop isn't it?
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08-29-2018 , 09:06 PM
Thanks all. Yes, I think I can comfortably jam/raise the turn as that's what I would do with combo draws. I didn't think about this and I only concentrated on the river.

Result: He checked the river. I bet 300. He snap called. He didn't show his hand. 300 was a weak bet. I had no read on the player and I went for a small value bet. But the best play really was to raise the turn.
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08-30-2018 , 01:17 AM
Yeah.....when your V snap calls OTR, and you win, you didn't bet enough.
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