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3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? 3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1?

01-14-2015 , 03:23 PM
Yeah you're probably done on that third 9. I doubt he has quads (though it's possible) but it's more possible he has like 7s or 8s, or 10s for a bigger boat. Bummer hand.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 03:30 PM
Half of me agrees, the other half doesn't know.
I think he can have a bigger pair, like 7's or 8's, but anything bigger would have raised pre, no?
Given his position as SB, seems there are more combo's of 9's in his hand than pocket pairs... 6 combos of each pair, so if we assume only 7's and 8's, that's 12 combos of likely better pairs. But many combos of 9x in his hand: 92, 92, 93, 93,...

But maybe there's a chance he's betting smaller pair, which is likely from SB...
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 03:34 PM
Bah...

Is it really that hard to type?
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 03:54 PM
Betting is over OTT, so this should be a call. We hit a dream flop and have a short stacked villain commit himself to the pot. I think we should try to GII on the flop here, as we may bring the other shortie along since he has put in 20% of his stack pre.

I think there is merit to folding pre since we are OOP and effective stacks are not deep enough.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Bah...

Is it really that hard to type?
It is actually much easier for me to enter hands on my phone at the tables than typing out the details in a notepad.

But I do see your point. This is a short enough hand that a text description is probably faster to read than replay. I will think about having the app generate a concise, readable hand for those that want to read rather than replay.

Thanks for your thoughts
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:09 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Logwyn
Betting is over OTT, so this should be a call. We hit a dream flop and have a short stacked villain commit himself to the pot. I think we should try to GII on the flop here, as we may bring the other shortie along since he has put in 20% of his stack pre.

I think there is merit to folding pre since we are OOP and effective stacks are not deep enough.
OTF, I think we are committed, but you don't think this is a good spot to slowplay? Pretty wet board where drawers are drawing virtually dead if I allow them to come in. Also, preflop raiser hasn't acted and I don't know if he'll continue with overpairs if we raise big

OTT, I'm not sure...

preflop: we have enough odds to set mine against BTN raiser at the least. I even considered raising given a wider raising range from BTN and possible dead money from SB shortstack
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:20 PM
Two problems with posting in your format.

1. Too slow to read.

2. You're essentially ignoring everything that makes a player better, such as reads.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:21 PM
sucks but we can't fold at this price. 2:1 yeah i think we can find a fold, but at 4:1 we can't fold this
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
sucks but we can't fold at this price. 2:1 yeah i think we can find a fold, but at 4:1 we can't fold this

Seems like this is working off some kind of rule of thumb.

Don't let such rule handicap you if you have already found your way to this forum.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Two problems with posting in your format.

1. Too slow to read.

2. You're essentially ignoring everything that makes a player better, such as reads.
I will do my best to make it easier and faster to read.

I actually didn't have any reads in this hand. I definitely would have let everyone know if there were.

I'm also of the cult that betting patterns, stack sizes, board textures, etc are more important than "asian guy, wearing sunglasses". I do agree that player tendencies, like betting frequencies are important though.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:32 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
sucks but we can't fold at this price. 2:1 yeah i think we can find a fold, but at 4:1 we can't fold this
yeah, the price we get on the call is relevant. it means we only have to be right 1 in 5 times. i just wonder if we're good here 1 in 5 times.

If his range here is exclusively 77, 88, and 9x (56 combos), then we're not. But if we throw in 22-55 (24 combos), then yeah, maybe?
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Seems like this is working off some kind of rule of thumb.

Don't let such rule handicap you if you have already found your way to this forum.
Would you fold here, Richard?

I'm interested in your thoughts as well
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 04:56 PM
I think it's a sighcall. We don't beat very much, but villain is so shortstacked that we can't rule out a desperation bluff with his straights, flushes, and underpairs.

Lacking reads, I think most 1/2 players would slowplay quad 9s with so little left in their stack. I'm going to discount quad 9s a bit. So Villain either had a pocket pair larger than 6s, a straight draw, or a flush draw. We beat the straight draws and flush draws. We need to win ~20% of the time.

So I call and quietly mutter about shortstacks.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-14-2015 , 05:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Parker
Seems like this is working off some kind of rule of thumb.

Don't let such rule handicap you if you have already found your way to this forum.
No it has nothing to do with a rule of thumb. It's that we have a boat against a short stack, and void of some read that he only has us beat then I think it is a call. If this guy planned on bluffing the flop with a draw, is he just going to give up his last 45$ and check fold? I bet more often than not he fires it in hopelessly. So because of the price I think that we can make a call
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 12:49 AM
It's a two tone flop and 78 is possible. Plus recreational players like to slowplay trips so 9x is unlikely. That should be enough doubt for it to be a call.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 01:11 AM
Mods should lock topics including a link to "play a hand".

Type your hand history. How easy can it be.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 01:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
No it has nothing to do with a rule of thumb.
Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
sucks but we can't fold at this price. 2:1 yeah i think we can find a fold, but at 4:1 we can't fold this
If it's not a rule of thumb, you think we can beat 20% of his range but not 33%?

Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
It's that we have a boat against a short stack, and void of some read that he only has us beat then I think it is a call.
Does it really matter that we have a boat? It's not like straight or flush is available on this board.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
If this guy planned on bluffing the flop with a draw, is he just going to give up his last 45$ and check fold? I bet more often than not he fires it in hopelessly.
He would have to be close to brain dead to shove whatever money he has remaining on the worst card possible.

Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
So because of the price I think that we can make a call
So it is some sort of rule of thumb...
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:13 PM
Richard, you are missing the point. At some point in poker we have something called ancillary value. At a certain point we can throw out pot odds and the likes because there is added value aside from out equity vs his range. We can pick a dollar amount that it doesn't matter if we have the nut low because the value gained by learning the information about a players tendency is worth the extra value we are giving up. Am I saying this is that scenario? No. But we don't have to look at this spot as only am I good enough times to justify putting this amount in on the river. Maybe this scenario we would only be good one in 6 times, but we make a concession of the extra 2bb (or how much ever the amount would actually be) because of the information we gain about how this player plays his hands.

These types of concepts have been discussed before such as in very shallow restricted buy in games where it is very necessary to build your stack quickly, so you might take a slightly -ev spot because when you win and have more chips it can lead to future +ev spots that are much higher.

In this spot, I look at it like it is 9bb and our opponent can have a bluff because I've seen people put it in dead before because they just made up their mind and we're going with it.

I by no means am looking at the spot thinking lol boat call. I'm looking at it as we have a boat and there are hands in his range that he could have played this way on the flop that we do beat, and sometimes chop with. You might not think that he ever shows up with 87 or a FD but I would disagree. I've seen people do it

And I have made folds bigger than this. In a limped pot that I was in with 55 the flop came 533 and the SB led into 7 people. I flatted and we went to the turn heads up. 2 he led large on the turn again and I was sure he had a 3, so I flatted to allow him to shove the river. River 3 and he shoved so I folded. And the funny part is, I just misunderstood he player. He had been very tight up until now and after I folded he showed me his q5. I just went with my read and was wrong because he didn't know as much as I thought he did about poker. He didn't know that against me there is a 0% chance that I would call with worse. I assumed he did know this by watching him play. Now I wasn't getting the same price we are here and it was more like a 35bb all in on the river, not 9bb.

But there has to be an amount where we can look past just the pot odds and can get other value past the equity in the hand. In this spot I think it would be worth a call. If he never has a draw in his range then it's not worth a call because he likely doesn't have 22-55 in his range often enough.

We don't really have any of this info about this player so we should just call in my opinion.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:15 PM
In other words, we should call because of factors that have not been discussed nor declared...by following a rule of thumb:

Quote:
Originally Posted by the machine
But there has to be an amount where we can look past just the pot odds and can get other value past the equity in the hand. In this spot I think it would be worth a call. If he never has a draw in his range then it's not worth a call because he likely doesn't have 22-55 in his range often enough.

We don't really have any of this info about this player so we should just call in my opinion.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:24 PM
It's not a rule of thumb. It's something that each person has to decide for themselves. What is your threshold here? I don't understand the point of your continual posts unless it is to argue semantics over if what I'm saying is a "rule of thumb"
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:27 PM
You are the one arguing the semantic...

I don't really have a threshold in a spot like this. Not sure if you need one.
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:29 PM
We are given no reads, if I sit down and this is my first hand I don't see how we can fold given the price and the value of the information we gain.

Point being, if the pot was somehow 3$ and he went all in for a dollar here would you fold?
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:31 PM
You have quoted me multiple times and claimed what I'm saying is rule of thumb. I've given reasons behind them. It's not that it's rule of thumb, it's that I think we are ahead often enough and the relative value of the price to call is worth calling for more than just the equity in the pot but the value gained in information about this player
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote
01-15-2015 , 07:31 PM
Maybe you don't know what rule of thumb means?
3/5 flopped boat, fold turn getting 4 to 1? Quote

      
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