I keep finding myself 1100 deep in 2&5 getting in weird spots


Villian is a professional, thinking tag, I've played prob 8 hours with him... He made one ck raise bluff w a gut shot earlier in day and potted river when flush scare card hit and showed bluff, otherwise he's been super solid

He should view me as taggy and capable- he did stack me early on when I opened AQ to 15 in hi jack, sb flatted, he flatted

Flop A 4 5 (pot 45)

I bet 25, he makes it 125, I call- he open ships J turn for 300 and I call w AQ and lose to his AK


Otherwise he's seen me play good, I didn't show the AQ and claimed I had k high and put him on a draw

I digress

1000 effective

Pot is limped to him in sb, he completes, I ck bb w 69hd


Flop 7c 10c 3h (pot 20)


Cks through

Turn bink 8h (pot 20)


He cks, I bet 15, limper calls, he makes it 60

I make it 175, limper folds, pro dude calls after thinking for a bit

River 2s, no frushes


7c 10c 3h 8h 2s (pot 380)


He cks, we have 820 behind and?


Thoughts on turn line?

I think you have to bet for value obv. Not sure if it is b/f or b/c tho...

Flatting your 3bet after some thought is a bit confusing. I am trying to breakdown the type of hands he could have in his range. Is he the sort of player that would complete with ATC on SB or fold out trash like 82o? If he is a TAG pro likely to fold this rubbish, would be helpful if you have seen him fold in this spot pre before?

Here are some hands he could have...
Tx - you would think he would lead on flop, or at least turn, def not c/r. So unlikely
Tx & draw (either hearts or straight draw), still not sure why he wouldn't lead flop. So unlikely
Pair & draw (either hearts or straight draw), makes sense. When you 3bet his c/r he probably doesn't see you folding so 4betting doesnt make sense as he has almost no fold equity. However I think he would call this pretty quickly once you 3bet.
2pair - only realistic combo here is 87, unless he is calling in SB with 82 type hands. So unlikely
Set - I think it makes more sense to lead this hand on the turn as the board has started to get v messy with str & flush draws
Straight - either J9 or 69. Obv you have a blocker with the 9 here but there are still a lot of combos of this. With these hands he could def take the line he has. c flop, c/r turn and flat 3bet to trap, c/r river. Also I think flatting 3bet would be done after some thought as 4bet is obvious alternative, so makes sense.

So I think you have to make a reasonable vbet on river - 300ish. If he calls pretty sure you have won. If he c/r (presumably this would put you all in), this is really tricky. I don't see why he would do this with 96 as you are only calling with a straight and some of the time you have J9. However he is capable of bluffing (as shown by previous hh you shared), this does seem like a terrible spot to bluff tho as river completes nothing and you have a straight so often from your line on turn and when you bet river. TBH not sure what I would do if facing a c/r on river? It is 500 to win 2000 so have to be correct 1/4, but this seems pretty marginal...

So we're clearly betting river. I'm also feeling great about our hand because I would expect a good thinking player to come back over the top with the pure nuts because there are really bad river cards for him that hit your range, clubs completing a big combo draw, one liners that make it tough to get paid, board pairing cards that fill up your flopped sets. There is no reason for him to get it in OTT after you b/3b (if he has the nuts) because it appears as though you are never folding. Your turn line/sizing is totally fine.

The same thing holds true for your perspective as well. This is a bet big/call against a good player all day long because his line should never be the nuts if he's a solid tag that can hand-read (would re-raise turn). He is losing oodles and oodles of value vs you by calling turn and checking river.

His range should consist of all sets, pair/fd/fdsd combos. I would not refer to his range on the river as inelastic because good players can sometimes find a fold with sets in this spot, if he has 2pair here he sucks.

Sizing is a tricky situation on this river, I would bet whatever you think is the best for him to call with a set. I do not know villian at all but you can bet around half-pot and hopefully he levels himself into thinking your valuebetting something worse or following through with the missed draws in your range.

~200 and puke-fold if he shoves cause your rarely chopping at best.

Questions you have to ask yourself in this hand:

1) Do you think you have the best hand here more often than not?

2) Are you willing to stack off with your straight here?

Scenario 1
If you think you have the best hand here, you have to bet big on river and commit yourself to the pot (i.e. call even if he raises you) That is, bet around $300 at river and call another $500 to his shove. The worst case for you to do is to bet pot size and then fold to the reraise.

Scenario 2
If you think your hand is not good here a good % of times but still sufficient to make a thin value bet, then you should be betting a much smaller value on river and fold to his shove.

Comparing Scenario 1 vs 2, it is hard for me to think that your hand is not the best here. Commit yourself to the pot and bet at least 2/3 of the pot and call any raise. This is esp since your straight is rather hidden and it is possible that villain might do this with sets.

3betting turn on that board is fine imo

Lead river for 250

There should be no other talk here except how to get the most value. Never folding this hand, that is insanity.

There is a good argument for an attempt to induce villain.

$100. It looks like meek value which he could potentially pounce on. Snap call/shove if he comes over the top.

Note normally I'd just go for fat value, but this is a good spot.

I'm never folding this river to this villain on a busted FD board with the 2nd nuts...

My biggest concern is trying to keep my raging erection from busting out of my pants and tilting the table at a 45 degree angle and having all the chips slide off the table

So its a matter of max value and the following two questions:

#1) Do we bet hoping to induce a busted FD to re-pop us?

#2) Do we just bet for straight value?

I think I'm leaning more towards #2. Since there is a busted draw on the board, that should encourage villain to call us down a touch lighter than he normally would. Especially since he called our turn 3-bet so odds are he has a decent hand that can pay us off. Not to mention he's owned us a few times already and can level himself into thinking we are spazzing a busted flush draw.

I bet $300 here and if he ships it, then we make a crying call.

betting for max value is much better than betting to induce, imo.

also think it is a b/c against this opponent.

banking on Rob's logic that if he is a decent player that he should never have the nut straight ott when he flats hero's 3b due to the amount of value that can be lost if a scare card comes otr and kills the action.

Bet 250 if you respect his ability to make disciplined laydowns. Bet 300 otherwise.

Bet small/call ainec

Think he's not likely to cr turn 4way with 2pair, although not impossible, plays much better as a lead. Think he has way more draws than made hands when he takes that turn line AND flats the turn 3bet. Plus small bet gets us looked up light when his draw has actually some sort of weak showdown, i.e.97o (obv low %) and might make him raise worse for value (even lower %) to try and own u

135/snap

bet/fold the river to 225

also if he is actually good, fold the AQ hand OTF or OTR

If he is a good pro like you say, I would think he would bet higher on turn to shut down any draws from getting there, so I'm thinking you're good. I would bet 300 and pray he pushes

b/f $280 for value.

He is never check/raising with worse here and imo from the line he took against you with TPTK he views you as a donk which means he is never trying to bluff you off of what is obv a strong hand.

We expect him to have what when he check raises turn and check shoves river?

the nuts. 99.99% of the time.

I am assuming your question is rhetorical but figured i would still answer just in case.

it was in relation to nickleb

I thought this too when I read the first hand.

imo, the question we should also be asking is what would this villain do with a hand like 98 or JT or any other combo of pair + SD or pair +FD or FD + SD or two pair combos...

I think that is the real question.

Your typical ABC or nitty type player I 100% agree with a bet/fold line on river, absolutely.

But do we expect a "very good aggressive player" to 100% shut down on a busted river after he 3-bet turn?

So my question is, for the sake of argument, lets say villain has 98.

#1) Could you see this villain checking flop (going for a c/r on flop) and 3-betting turn with this hand?
#2) If villain does have 98 could you see this villain c/r shoving river?

Given he check raised the turn we know the check raise is in his arsenal. Also we know he is aggro. So I just don't see how a c/r shove river vs this type of opponent is 100% the nuts.

against most villains, absolutely, most villains just don't have it in themselves to c/r shove river on a busted combo draw. But I think this villain has it in him which is why I would bet/call.

And lets not forget, that would be some serious FPS to have the nuts on turn and then go for ANOTHER check/raise on the river. He should expect us to check back a huge portion of our hands and thus he'd lose value would he not?

It would be even bigger FPS to check/raise bluff this river. At this stake, against an opponent he just stacked with tptk, I just can't imagine a competent player trying to move op off 100% of his range. Just flat out suicide.

Basically, no matter which way you slice it, river is serious FPS by villain...

So with so much doubt, how are we comfortable folding second nuts?

Never. Most likely villain has J9 or this wouldn't be a post, but I don't have it in me to b/f here.

If he had fps ott, then he is going ride or die otr 100% of the time. I think looking at turn action THEN what he does otr in separation is not the best way to think about this.

BC if he is fancy playing ott, then he MUST fp the river. Its not, well he could have been getting out of line ott, but now he'd never c/r without the nuts here otr.


So far the entire thread wants to bet for minimum value and snap fold to a raise. So being "recommended reaction" results oriented, I would say it isn't exactly suicide.

Come on man you cant really believe this can you? Of course he can try to get "fancy" on the turn and then give up on the river. Happens all the time. Pot gets super bloated and people lose their nerve. Especially in this spot where all the draws brick and he is facing an opponent who he just stacked with one pair. aka he knows he is getting snapped off pretty much every time.

Really not sure where you are seeing any results oriented advice...we dont have the results yet. Bottom line is that river c/r's are almost never bluffs and the tiny percentage of the time you are shown one does not make up for the 99% of the time that you call and get shown the nuts.

Ask yourself two questions. Am i a competent player? if yes, would i ever c/r bluff in this spot?

We 3bet the turn fwiw

Also combinatorically he has all J9 in his range so he has to chr a huge amount of the combos he continues with on the turn 100% of the time on the river for us to bluff catch a competent villain that it is like a stone cold lock to be -EV.

Sorry for my confusing gibberish. What I meant was that I was being results oriented. Results of the collected recommendations itt. The results are that the consensus is to snap fold to a c/r, so I am using the consensus to back my opinion that a c/r isn't suicide.

(i.e., if we all want to snap fold to a c/r, then a c/r is a valid move). I realize this is "results oriented".

Competent player? Probably not.

Bluff in this spot? I might, but I have been known to spew. It would have to be history/dynamic driven.

1) a c/r sets up the sizing really well.

2) From villains perspective, hero can still be value betting worse. A c/r will be called by only the exact top of hero's range (i.e., most here want to fold second nuts to a c/r)

I like that we are debating action on something that may not materialize, that's what this forum is all about.

I really can't put this guy on the nuts since he checked the river. COMPLETELY AGREE with the comments about this being FPS on the part of Villain if he has a straight here.

I really want to make a "go away" bet here and hope Villain levels himself into calling.

We have $830 left... pot is $380... lets bet $500 and then sit very still and look at the table in front of us.