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25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? 25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot?

04-07-2011 , 06:10 AM
so it was a good 25/50 game with few recreational players. games are loose passive with a guy limp/calling everything and such.

a little history of myself: i have been raising quite a few hands the last few orbits due to good run of cards but bad run on postflop. so ppl might see me as being a little tilted which i actually wasn't at all.

i had about 9k to start with the hand. 3 people limp in front of me, i picked up KsKc otb and made it 350 to go. sb (around 2k) calls, 2 limpers called.

flop: A 2s 4s pot (1450)

checks to me and I cbet 800, sb moves in and folds to a guy who tank calls (with about 3.5k behind) and said something like "alright, im gonna protect him" (the sb and this guy are friends irl fwiw, I called the floor over and expressed my concern for possible colluding but obv table thought i was being too jerkish). Just when I was thinking about folding, he accidentally shows his card to other players and I saw him holding Q9ss for a flush draw.

Now I know I may very likely to be beat by sb's AX or set or whatever he's holding but I'm well ahead of the cold-caller's hand.

I have few options here. Obv i'm trying to get his money to win the side pot.

1. call and shove safe non spade turn?

2. shove now and make him commit based on pot odds

3. fold...(i doubt it's even an option now that i have seen his card)
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-07-2011 , 07:52 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billybeartku
so it was a good 25/50 game with few recreational players. games are loose passive with a guy limp/calling everything and such.

a little history of myself: i have been raising quite a few hands the last few orbits due to good run of cards but bad run on postflop. so ppl might see me as being a little tilted which i actually wasn't at all.

i had about 9k to start with the hand. 3 people limp in front of me, i picked up KsKc otb and made it 350 to go. sb (around 2k) calls, 2 limpers called.

flop: A 2s 4s pot (1450)

checks to me and I cbet 800, sb moves in and folds to a guy who tank calls (with about 3.5k behind) and said something like "alright, im gonna protect him" (the sb and this guy are friends irl fwiw, I called the floor over and expressed my concern for possible colluding but obv table thought i was being too jerkish). Just when I was thinking about folding, he accidentally shows his card to other players and I saw him holding Q9ss for a flush draw.

Now I know I may very likely to be beat by sb's AX or set or whatever he's holding but I'm well ahead of the cold-caller's hand.

I have few options here. Obv i'm trying to get his money to win the side pot.

1. call and shove safe non spade turn?

2. shove now and make him commit based on pot odds

3. fold...(i doubt it's even an option now that i have seen his card)
Shove now, which, in essence is a minraise. Get it in while he is optimistic
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-07-2011 , 02:17 PM
If i got the math right, the pot will be 7.5k if you call and you have 1.5k eff.
left. Thus there is no way that Q9s will fold on a brick turn.
So calling and shoving safe turns seems to be better than shoving.
Vs Q9s you have 68% equity, and i assume that you have 10% equity vs
Q9s+sb.Thus the Ev of shoving is 10%*7.5k+68%*3k-2.35k=+440$
When you call, you will invest 850$ and will fold on 8/45 cards, thus 17%
of the time.
You Ev of calling is in this case 10%*7.5K+-0.85k +0.83*(0.82*3k-1.5k)=700$.

So by calling you should gain an additional Ev of 260$.
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-07-2011 , 11:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by billybeartku
and said something like "alright, im gonna protect him" (the sb and this guy are friends irl fwiw, I called the floor over and expressed my concern for possible colluding but obv table thought i was being too jerkish).
Yeah kind of jerk'ish. People say that all the time when someone is AI, 9 times out of 10 they don't even know what it means, they just know thats what people say in that situation.

Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
Shove now, which, in essence is a minraise. Get it in while he is optimistic
+1 In these situations further betting is almost never getting called unless the other hand improves a lot. Get it in now and at least suck up the side pot even though I think the main is not going to you.
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-08-2011 , 03:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MalcolmX23
If i got the math right, the pot will be 7.5k if you call and you have 1.5k eff.
left. Thus there is no way that Q9s will fold on a brick turn.
So calling and shoving safe turns seems to be better than shoving.
Vs Q9s you have 68% equity, and i assume that you have 10% equity vs
Q9s+sb.Thus the Ev of shoving is 10%*7.5k+68%*3k-2.35k=+440$
When you call, you will invest 850$ and will fold on 8/45 cards, thus 17%
of the time.
You Ev of calling is in this case 10%*7.5K+-0.85k +0.83*(0.82*3k-1.5k)=700$.

So by calling you should gain an additional Ev of 260$.
We have the Ks though so we aren't folding even if he does make his flush on the turn.

I guess there's a slim chance this guy checks through a turn that completes his flush however small that is.
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-08-2011 , 03:38 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by endodocdc
Shove now, which, in essence is a minraise. Get it in while he is optimistic
i think i didn't make it clear. after the guy cold calls the c/r all in from sb, he has 3.5k ish left behind. so he had about 5kish to start with the hand.
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-08-2011 , 04:05 AM
oh I misread it too then, call and see the turn I think is the right play.

BTW I do not like the flop cbet.
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-08-2011 , 05:31 AM
u went to macau again? should've asked me! ! !

gl
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-08-2011 , 05:42 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by fov
u went to macau again? should've asked me! ! !

gl
lol who are u?
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote
04-08-2011 , 09:44 AM
Yea call and see the turn push on any non spade turn. I don't understand the C-bet into 3 players on an A high board here especially otb where you could have checked behind in hopes to see one of your 2 outs ott. Also you said the table sees you as tilted so they are going to let you C-bet on this A high board all day so they can either c/c or c/r as the short stack did.
25/50 hkd @ the Wynn Macau, what's the most +EV move in this spot? Quote

      
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