Quote:
Originally Posted by mikko
Are you folding to guy who has been super active and squeezing alot!!!!
If you hold 10+ AK, and there is $300 in pot dead money?
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I feel like you're applying his range on the shove to his range on the flat of $39. He had a chance to reraise but didn't, so yeah his range is a little lower but that's good because you're more likely to take it down with any sort of raise. (If he knew raising was an option, which there is some chance he didn't based on his question after your raise, but at the time of your decision on the $39 you don't know this). I don't think much folds the 150 that is ahead of you or flipping. But I think you are overestimating that TT/JJ/AQ/AK are definitely calling the 400. You say he is not doing high-level thinking, so he is not sitting there going "Hmm I am getting almost 2:1 against a spazzy player and his perceived range for me is ______.". If he has that subset of hands that has you notched or flipping he might be thinking " Oh ****, a $400 bet?? I don't want to lose $400 with JJ ugh. Maybe he is bluffing but it's just not worth it."
When you bet $150 he may be thinking "Ha I have a good hand and this guy is trying to get a cheap steal with all that dead money, I think I could be ahead and maybe he will just fold his junk if I shove right here."
That's what I meant by "scramble his ranging" because you say yourself it is primitive. There's a point for rec players where the absolute size of a bet starts to matter more than the pot odds.
The 150 bet might also get called by AJs, ATs and all sorts of stuff that you do not want in that would pretty easily fold the 400. The 150 is giving him like 2.5:1 to call so he might be right to call with more marginal bands that he could still have and that you want out.
Last edited by tuds38; 08-11-2017 at 08:28 PM.