1/2 typical loose passive game

Hero: lag well known player, been dominating, looked up a couple bluffs with middle pairs this session. Been super active specifically in the previous orbit.

Villain: tag Asian lady, limps a lot of pots, has gotten sucked out on twice so far this session, incapable of any real hand reading. (250 effective stack)

Hero TJhh in bb
4 calls pre I check my option in bb, normally raise this big but have been running over table, think ppl are in call me light mode.

Flop: 378hh, I lead for ten, villain utg raises to 25, hero calls(I put her on a top top kind of hand)

Turn:3x hero checks, villain bets 40, her0 ?

My thought is if I donk any heart or 9 and check call any T Or J am I getting enough value to call 1 more street here? The bets pretty small it seems.

I don't really like the flop lead.

Seems like a pretty mundane aspect of the hand, maybe u could elaborate

I think I fold here because I am not sure I jack or a 10 is good. Real good chance youre only drawing to a h or a 9

If you led expecting to get flats or folds from all people behind you, then it's fine.

If you led expecting to get raised a decent portion of the time, and your plan was to flat the raise as opposed to 3bet/gii then I don't like the lead.

It had been generally a passive table, I very rarely expect to get raised here, do u think 4 bet is better than flat? Her sizing was so small

I don't like the lead because you only flatted the raise.

If you put him on a "top pair" kind of hand - you are ~60%.

3 bet that raise and get money in the pot.

What is her sizing in other hands where she has TPTK or better?

Is she the type of player that will raise with J8 here thinking "OMG I haz top pair gotta raise" or is she only getting aggressive with overpairs, 2p, and sets?

Based on your description I don't quite know what to think. Not sure I can envision a TAG that limps a lot. That doesn't seem very TAGy to me

If she is your standard semi-aggro bad rec fish then I guess we have the implied odds to draw to the flush, straight, J or T and extract nice value if we hit. Since we are drawing to 18 outs we have roughly 40% equity meaning we need to make around 1.5:1 on our money and we can easily extract another $60 out of her if we bink river.

As for leading flop and then flatting the raise, I think it's fine. As long as we are getting the right direct and implied odds to still draw, I'm fine with the flat. Though you can make the case that if we feel our overs are good we can get it in on the flop and take the draw while we have max equity. However, against weaker players who I know will make mistakes on future streets, I don't mind flatting and small balling it against them especially if they will still pay me off when I hit

Can you or someone else break down this math for me in detail? Assume I'm an idiot that has never heard of implied odds before. How does 40% equate to 1.5:1? What is a simple way for me to make these percentage calculations? I know the rule of 2 and 4. 18x2 roughly = 40% is that where that came from? How do I then convert that to 1.5:1? Thanks for the help in advance.

The odds to call May seem tempting but we have a few problems. 1st we have do not have any outs to the nuts unless we have a gut shot straight flush draw. Meaning we could likely be drawing dead now. 2nd if V does have a hand liketop pair is she ever actually paying off a reasonable bet on the river that improves our hand.

Pre flop I think checking is fine, I check call flop hoping for other callers to come along. Turn is a fold IMO, that is a terrible card for us. We are being raised by TAG supposedly so I think that includes a strong range, not top pair. I'd say 2 pair plus is a likely range. So we have no clue is at our implies odds are or our reverse implied odds(since we could very well be dead already).

*** Disclaimer *** I play pretty cautious in limped pots. I'm okay with the b/c on flop unless you're looking to play for stacks OTF. Against sets you're 2:1 against, TPTK you're 2:1 favorite. What were the hands she got sucked out on? Will she play for stacks w a TP or an overpair hand? Will she GII or raise w anything you're a favorite against? I guess it's possible she limped w an overpair hoping you'd raise (you said you've been running over the table), if so, you're ~ even money. I think if she GII in previous hands with TP type hands, I'd look to GII on the flop, if she GII with sets, I'd probably flat flop.

Turn is a bad card for us. Maybe this is a bit nitty but once the board pairs on the turn, I'd be done with the hand. You're drawing to a straight or flush and it's possible neither of them are good if you hit on the river/you may already be drawing dead.

I also check and evaluate flop, possibly flatting, raising or folding depending on action.

Leading has no FE against most 1-pair hands in a small pot.

Our hand hits the flop hard but is not as good a draw as a pair + FD or a combo draw with the NFD.

Checking allows us to flat if we are given good odds, semibluff raise against one opponent, or fold if there is a bet and raise in front. People get stacked going to the felt with these hands after heavy action only to see they are up against a set and a bigger FD.

I flat turn and r/e river. Sets are definitely in her PF limping, flop-raising range which means we could be drawing dead OTT.