Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym
Even if we are always forced to get it in with worse equity on a later street?
If there is only ONE pot (in this instance would be the side pot), then of course you want to be getting your money in when your equity is the highest.
However, this is not such scenario, because we are never folding prior to the river given that the main pot is the reason why we are here.
*I don't think I am explaining above very well, but it should be rather clear that the EV of whether to shove flop should all be directly related to side pot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym
Note the word 'always'. Like it or not, if we're playing against a villain who plays perfectly against us then we lose money by not shoving.
This is not true and I kind of dislike the fact that you put your conclusion ahead of your proof, making it harder to quote in order.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym
Ignoring the main pot (except that it forces us to call blank turns):
- If we shove flop we win 43% of $400: EV = -$28
CORRECT!
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym
- If we call flop we win $0 when we hit on the turn (26.7%) and win 25% of $400 when we miss (73.3%): EV = -$126.70.
NOT CORRECT! Again...think about the gutshot scenario.
Say we have 10% equity for the $400: EV = $-160
Do you shove flop because "just in case" you hit the turn, you don't want V to have a chance to fold, so you commit him on the flop when he's never folding?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pseudonym
I have read what you've written and I'm afraid you're the one missing the point. Last try for me. Hopefully someone else can step in and explain it better.
I may be running out of steam as well. Clearly you are caught up on the whole thing about hitting your card and villain folding and ignoring the fact that on the flop, you have less than 50% equity for your money.
I'll try this for the 100th time: would you put your money in a spot where you are less than 50% equity in a HU situation?
Here, maybe this might help, which scenario is better:
Scenario A:
We shove flop with 43% equity for a -EV of -$28?
Scenario B:
Flop is checked through for an EV of $0?
Hero hits turn, V check-folds 100% of the times. What is our EV on turn? $0
$0 + $0 = $0
Which is better, $0 or -$28?
I don't think I missed anything, but if I did, I hope someone will be kind enough to point it out.