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2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead 2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead

12-07-2014 , 09:45 PM
I am playing 2/5 at Palm Beach Kennel Club. I'm new to the table, but from the orbit that I have been here, villain seems to be the most active player at the table. I've done nothing.

Seen him get in Q8 on QT5tt on his button straddle after having raised pre, and he get SNAPPED off by AT by another regular. also seen him run a 3 barrel bluff with Q7hh out of position on J42sss5x9x as the PFR and he shows. He opened that hand to 40 from MP.

500 effective. several shorter stacks behind me.

Villain limps utg, I raise to 20 with TT from MP, BB calls, utg calls.

Flop ($60): 964r. sb checks, utg leads 40, Hero?

What is my plan here? should i be flatting w/ intention of calling him down on most runouts? Raising with the intention of getting it in assuming the sb folds? or raise and fold to his 3bet?
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:36 PM
I flat and let him barrel off, only folding overcards and 9s to this guy. Straightening cards and middle/bottom pair are excellent bluff outs for him, so I'm unconcerned about 4-8o falling OTT.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:37 PM
Ugly situation against an apparent maniac. I'm inclined to give this up because the board is so bad for calling down. Between the possible straight draws, 9X hands and over cards literally every card is potentially bad. The only way your happy with your hand is if you improve to top boat or quads by the river because catching a ten completes the most obvious straight draw.

With a better read on villain I might commit to calling him down or raising him now. I would want more history that villain is actually that bad maniac and a better idea of what sort of maniac he is. I don't like raising him without a better idea how to respond if he shoves over hero's raise. Depending on his play style his range could be super wide and hero has a trivial call or his range could be mostly hands that crush hero and some OESD and hero should fold to the shove.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:50 PM
If you call this you have to close your eyes and call turn and river.

In the long run you profit because of his weaker range... Did he limp call before?
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-07-2014 , 10:59 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by kekeeke
Did he limp call before?
not that i've seen when he was bluffing.

and i dont think folding the flop is an option for me. we are light years ahead of his donk range and folding would be super exploitable. also i am thrilled if i hit a ten.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-07-2014 , 11:01 PM
villain bets 40, i call 40.

($140)Flop: 964r 2x

Villain bets 150...

are we sticking with our call down or are we re-evaluating now that he has bombed?

the hand when he ran a 3barrel bluff with Q7s, he went "bet small, bet small, bet big". something like 30 50 160.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-07-2014 , 11:07 PM
also i'm not convinced flatting is best. there are a handful of gutters, 9x, 6x, 4x, and overcard hands he could be barreling. not sure how letting him catch up and continuing to blindly call down is a great strategy either, especially if he's capable of shutting down when he bricks. and we dont know what cards help him...

what are we doing with our whole range i dont see how TT is much different than AA given I dont think he plays JJ-KK this way.

If we raise now i'm not sure he shoves light, but if he does shove, how can he actually have a hand given 66 or 44 will likely call and try to c/r the turn.... so it's like wtf does he have when he shoves? bc this would seem like pretty good thing to have a range for him on if we elect to raise.

How often should i be bluff raising this board? perhaps that would help me balance a get it in range...
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-08-2014 , 04:05 AM
why not just r/f to 110. seems like thats the best play. we are at least 2:1 favorite against his lead range. then we can bet smallish on the turn and check back rivers.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-08-2014 , 04:55 AM
If we feel like we are ahead them I'm raising his flop bet not calling.

Raise folding is bad here cause us raising does nothing to his range if he is that much of a maniac.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-08-2014 , 09:55 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by The Face
are we sticking with our call down or are we re-evaluating now that he has bombed?
Without a better read on villain, just call. You don't have enough information yet to evaluate if the turn bet sizing means anything. Without a good read on villain and board where any card is potentially scary, you can't fold and raising probably just limits villain's range to the hands that do beat you.

When you flatted the flop your saying you think the best line is letting villain bluff off his chips. On a board where any card might beat you and a maniac villain, calling flop is committing to calling down on any run out. It's probably +EV but without more information on villain, not clear how much. Variance will be high.

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Face
why not just r/f to 110. seems like thats the best play. we are at least 2:1 favorite against his lead range. then we can bet smallish on the turn and check back rivers.
That could be a good option against some players, but without some idea how this villain responds to aggression it's marginal. Maniacs will shove gut shot draws at least some of the time and some will shove bluff in this situation, so bet/fold may be too weak, particularly if the maniac will flat some strong hands so his shoves are mostly draws and bluffs. Other maniacs will give up all but their best hands to aggression on hero's part. Without a better read on villain you have no idea what to do if villain does flat or shove.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote
12-08-2014 , 11:58 AM
we could just say **** it and raise get it in. given the described villain, it is unlikely he would limp any pair utg (would probably raise) so we can discount sets from his lead range. that leaves 96 and 64 are the only hands that beat us, and we almost have 30% equity vs those hands which isn't that bad considering that's the top of his range. throw in all the OESDs and our equity doubles, and that doesn't even include any gutters or air.
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12-08-2014 , 12:09 PM
OP played well to turn. Not much else to do other than call him down. Might stuff turn but calling seems fine. 3bet folding flop would be pretty bad IMO.
2/5NL: overpair facing donk lead Quote

      
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