2/5nl Line check 200bb deep trips vs shove - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

The importance of v2 overvaluing top pair is two fold.

1) we can safely assume with 100% certainty that he folded a Q. Looking at combinatorics that polarizes V1 even more so...even though I would say he's pretty polarized already obv. This is the really important one imo.

Less important is

2) if v1 has noticed the same thing dgi has (I would assume he has, as he is described as seemingly competent), then his jam gets confusing. Does he think v2 is calling? Dgi's flat weak or strong? As we read results I think we see dgi's flat as strong, but in game I'm sure it's much closer to being perceived as weak.

Biggest question for dgi from me is what v1's opening range is here. I mean what 6x's are in his range?

Quote:

Originally Posted by jvds

interesting spot, knowing a bit more about V1 would be helpful in this spot.

starting with bet sizing, is his preflop 25 standard for him, does it vary at all by hand strength? otf, his cbet is a bit more than half pot, again is this pretty standard, does he like to bet larger with air to take it down and lead half-ish to induce from v2?.

My observation so far is the hands he bluffed, he lead out near pot size bets then shut down when called.

Other hands I witness him win was standard c-bets of 1/2 pot followed by bet on next street.

This was the first hand I'd seen him shove

Quote:

Originally Posted by jvds

...
what do you think he would expect you to do with AQ preflop? i think that when you flat here your range looks alot like 6x and AQ (obv expecting V1 to fold and to be heads up with V2 who has a worse Q, which is face up) unless he expects you to 3b pre with AQ most of the time, in which case your range is just 6x. also would you expect that he would have a good grasp on what your range is in this spot?.

I had just owned him in a couple of decent pots and all my showdowns thus far have been strong hands. My thought at the time was that my call from the SB has to look pretty strong. There are literally no draws on the board and I expected the LAG to see all that.

Last edited by dgiharris; 04-29-2013 at 04:08 PM.

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04-29-2013 , 04:11 PM

#27

EfromPegTown

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Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 3,063

Quote:

Originally Posted by kleinstein000

Seems like this is a pretty clear call. He probably wouldnt play A6 or QQ this way. Also there are quite a few worse 6's in his range, as well as AA, KK

I would also be a lot more concerned if he thought for a little while and then shipped, but that could be totally incorrect

This is my thinking.

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04-29-2013 , 04:48 PM

#28

jvds

adept

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,176

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgiharris

The hand V tried to squeeze then bluff was Q2s, so I think V's opening range is all Suited cards, 22+, and broadways.

I thought my flat would look strong to him given that I've more or less won every hand that I put significant money into the flop and I had recently beat him in a couple of decent pots.

My observation so far is the hands he bluffed, he lead out near pot size bets then shut down when called.

Other hands I witness him win was standard c-bets of 1/2 pot followed by bet on next street.

This was the first hand I'd seen him shove

I had just owned him in a couple of decent pots and all my showdowns thus far have been strong hands. My thought at the time was that my call from the SB has to look pretty strong. There are literally no draws on the board and I expected the LAG to see all that.

i think with all of this i would probably lean towards a fold. the half pot cbet followed by insta ship make me think that he thinks this is for value. with the recent history between you two plus he didnt think before shipping it doesnt seem that likely that he would be shoving a worse 6 than 69 bc i think he expects that you have a 6 and will call, which makes it look alot like he has A6/K6. with his shove of ~865 into 415, we have to be good here about 40% when we call, and i think its pretty optimistic to think thats true. not to mention the fact that even if he does shove a worse 6 were gonna end up chopping a good deal of the time when our kicker gets counterfeited. i think you fold here and feel relatively good about the fact that he let you get away so cheap by making such a big error. if he really did shove with AA here, then oh well, you will probably get his money later.

i actually think that a bluff shove with AA (in particular of the same suits as the 6s on the board) would be really sick here though bc most of your range that includes a 6 is stuff like 56,67,68 (which you probably fold?) and he has blockers to A6 which is the only thing hes worried about getting snapped off by. with his 2x pot shove he has to take it down 66% of the time to break even and unless your calling pretty much every time with 69 and most of the time with 68 its profitable

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04-29-2013 , 05:15 PM

#29

ATsai

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

$115 3-bet preflop or fold. LAG Villain is iso-raising UTG fish lightly because he and UTG are super-deep and we should squeeze or fold against his weak range.

As played, puke-call. He could be overplaying 86s/76s. He will show up with A6s sometimes and maybe K6s every blue moon, but you should have at least 40% equity here against his shoving range.

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04-29-2013 , 05:19 PM

#30

ATsai

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11t

sick spot but I fold, if villain ever shows up with worse he is lol terrible

He probably has like K6s or A6s

Based off OP's description, Villain is likely somewhere between mediocre and terrible. So, we have to puke-call here with 96s.

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04-29-2013 , 05:20 PM

#31

11t

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Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,542

I just don't think he ever shows up here with 86s thru 65s, this shove looks like he thinks one of you two has a 6 and aren't folding so hes ramma jamming.

I mean you are calling 900 to win like 1.4k so it isn't like the odds are lol great

I agree villain looks terrible but OP describes him as an "okay" lag who shuts it down but attacks weakness and like getting raised on this flop and then OP's cold calling doesn't look weak imo.

I don't "hate" calling it off but I don't think its the best play versus this guy

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04-29-2013 , 05:22 PM

#32

Donat3llo

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Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 23,114

3! Pre if we're going to be oop, folding is ok also. Now does V2 propensity for squeezing come into play here? He sees you cold call the raise and then overbet shoves? I mean for people who like to make moves this smells fishy as it's a super strong move. Is he good enough to notice you're competent? Or is all of that just a big level. I mean what hands is he going to cbet flop w/? Prob checks QQ as it flopped the world. Is he opening A-6 pre, prob after the Q2 hand. The thing is I don't see him betting flop with QQ on this flop. Now he may lead flop with a 6, but there are only a few he plays pre that you beat, k/q/j/10-6 are not in his range most likely. Also could be a move from a player who you've seen make a very similar play prior to this. Probably a puke fold bc odds aren't super(<2-1) but I can safely say call with your money behind a computer screen.

Sent from my SGH-T769 using 2+2 Forums

Last edited by Donat3llo; 04-29-2013 at 05:28 PM.

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04-29-2013 , 05:37 PM

#33

NeverScurred

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Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 2,495

Quote:

Originally Posted by jvds

we have to be good here about 40% when we call, and i think its pretty optimistic to think thats true. not to mention the fact that even if he does shove a worse 6 were gonna end up chopping a good deal of the time when our kicker gets counterfeited

very underrated point imo

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04-29-2013 , 05:51 PM

#34

ATsai

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11t

Assuming the other Villain folded a Qx...

So, combo-wise, Villain has 1 combo of QQ, 1 combo of A6s, .50 combos of K6s (discounted 50%), 5 combos of 86s, 76s, 65s, 64s, 63s. Let's say that Villain goes nuts with 86s-63s only 20% of the time. Let's also say that Vllain shoves QQ only 50% of the time versus shoving A6s/K6s 100% of the time.

So, we are a 75% favorite 1/3 of the time, 25% dog 1/2 of the time, and 4% dog 1/6 of the time. This means we have about 38% equity against a tight range.

We need about 40% equity to make this call with these very conservative assumptions. FWIW, I think Villain makes a terrible over-play here more often than 20% of the time with his 86s-63s combos.

So, puke-call.

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04-29-2013 , 05:54 PM

#35

ATsai

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

Even if we think we are making a tiny -EV call, I gamble it up here, so I have a chance to be 400bb deep against the 500bb fish.

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04-29-2013 , 05:58 PM

#36

ATsai

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Oops. I did the equities wrong. We are only a 58% favorite against lower 6x and a 22% dog against A6s/K6s.

So I guess puke-fold is better.

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04-29-2013 , 06:00 PM

#37

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by 11t

I just don't think he ever shows up here with 86s thru 65s, this shove looks like he thinks one of you two has a 6 and aren't folding so hes ramma jamming.

I completely agree that's what it looks like. The question is whether we are leveling ourselves.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

This is solid. It also shows it is probably thin EV overall either way over time.

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATsai

Even if we think we are making a tiny -EV call, I gamble it up here, so I have a chance to be 400bb deep against the 500bb fish.

This is a really good observation/point. That makes the thin EV above larger here (implied odds of stacking fish later, lol)

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04-29-2013 , 06:16 PM

#38

NeverScurred

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Quote:

So, we are a 75% favorite 1/3 of the time, 25% dog 1/2 of the time

I don't see how we can be as much of a favorite over a smaller 6x as a larger 6x is over us, when smaller 6x's have many more chop outs than we do against larger 6x's, and they all have BDFDs whereas we do not.

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04-29-2013 , 06:33 PM

#39

dgiharris

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Results

Spoiler:

I thought I'd post a hand in which my play was marginal rather than an "aren't I so awesome" kinda post.

The first mistake I made was I sorta assumed/inferred that V1 was more competent than he really was when in reality, my table was just super soft and terribad.

My rule of thumb with calling with marginal hands out of position (besides not doing it

) is that i have to have a solid read on the table dynamics and villain and my read wasn't quite good enough to warrant calling with the 96s preflop even being 200bb deep, so I should have folded pre. On a scale of 1 - 10; one being horrendously bad and 10 being great, I think my preflop call in this spot was a 4.

The key to my decision was that V1 had not shoved at all, all of his bluffs were for the $200-ish range. So in my mind I had ZERO doubt that V1 was NOT bluffing. Absolutely no doubt. He had a Monster!!! I was 100% correct that he had a monster, so I folded, and V1 showed me his monster.

AA

yep. V1 had AA and V2 said he had AQ and V1 said, "yeah, I was pretty sure you guys had AQ or KQ or QJ, surprised you didn't call. Guess I bet too much

"
V2 said, "Yeah, I can't call that shove with AQ, I thought you had a six."

I asked V1, "Weren't you worried about the 6?"

He replied, "Nah, I knew you guys didn't have a six because I raised preflop."

Incidentally, had I been at the table an hour prior I would have seen V1 do the exact same thing (this came up in conversation a couple of minutes later). He was $800 deep and raised from MP, and the guy to his right limp called. Flop was 8 7 2r. UTG checks, V1 c-bets 1/2 pot, UTG check raises, V1 over shoves pot all-in for $800, UTG snap calls with a set of eights. V1 had QQ and rivers a Queen.

So apparently, V1 bluffs are in the $200 range and then he quickly shuts down if called. His overbet shoves are a different story. He overbet shoves all-in when he has an overpair and just doesn't think to himself "Can a worse hand ever call a 3 x pot over bet shove?" Nope, he just shovels it all-in when he has an overpair. Unfortunately, I had yet to see a hand where he shoved so I didn't quite have this particular read and had to base my decisions off of the incomplete information that i had.

Lastly, I leveled myself. I was convinced that V1 would read me for a 6 with my flat from the SB. I mean, he has AA so the odds of me and V2 having AQ are virtually non-existent. I also thought he would realize that I'm not calling a c-bet and a raise with something like QJ or KQ like ever and that the odds of both me and V2 just having a queen in this spot are low. I wrongly thought that V1 put one of us on a six and was shoving with a decent six or even something sick like QQ. Also, I thought about V1 turning a hand like KK or AA into a bluff but no one ever folds trips in this spot like ever and I thought V1 would realize that and thus didn't think he'd ever try to bluff rep a better six when he knows one of us has a six... And so I was convinced that V1 was monster...

where I went wrong is that V1 in "his mind" was monster because in his mind no way we have QQ or a six, so he was doing the typical donk, "I have the best hand I'm all-in bet" with no regards to extracting max value.

I don't feel too bad about the fold for the simple fact that it is rare for someone to re-raise-overbet 3x pot shove for 200bb+ deep on this board without the near nuts. Usually, its the AA and KK that make crying calls. So majority of time in this spot, V is going to have the near nuts.

But my mistakes were calling from SB with 96s, should have folded. Also, playing against a terribad villain while OOP BEFORE I have a nailed down solid read on him. Lastly, leveling myself thinking villain was better than he was.

FWIW, I got him for $400 over the next hour of play and have him mentally targeted for the next time we play together.

Last edited by dgiharris; 04-29-2013 at 06:39 PM.

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04-29-2013 , 07:36 PM

#40

Havok

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Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 726

I don't think you should call a raise with 9/6, flop trips and fold when faced with aggression. I think you'll be ahead more times than when your behind. And, I see this play with over pairs and Ace Queen hands trying to take the pot down enough to make this a call. If villain has your 6 out kicked or pocket queens you just have to pay him off.

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04-29-2013 , 08:01 PM

#41

patchohare

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Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 1,966

You check/cold called a 3bet on a Q 6 6 board and villain still ships?

This is ugly, but I'm guessing you flatted the raise to get action from villain 1 right?

Since this is the case I guess I follow through with the plan and get it in. The problem I see is that your hand screams 6 and he has no fear what so ever. I think his jamming range is 6x and QQ.

I think I still call though because he was the original raiser. The only hand with a 6 in that I see him opening with that's beating you is A6. However I think this guy opens 56s, 67s, 86s, probably 46s virtually always.

So yeah. he likes to push his money around enough and the 9 beats most of his value range here, so I like a call.

I think you played the hand fine to this point and if decided to fold I really wouldn't hate that decision either. though I'm leaning toward calling.

Quote

04-29-2013 , 08:22 PM

#42

Illiterate

old hand

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 1,237

Quote:

Originally Posted by kleinstein000

This. I'm not buying that V1 would overbet with a nutted hand with two streets left to get 2 PSBs in the middle. I think he flats or clicks it back with A6/QQ.

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04-29-2013 , 08:37 PM

#43

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

The results, especially the comments from villain, made me vomit in my mouth.

Thanks for sharing a hand where mistakes were made, not easy to do.

I wish I would have committed to my "spazz AA" theory more so I could look like a super star, but yea, I still call, mainly for the logic Atsai posted above, though his equities were off with the initial analysis I think the spazz factor makes this a call.

Also, its just so hard to imagine A6 or QQ playing this way, unless its a super deep level from a thinking player, which it seems we leveled ourselves into

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04-29-2013 , 08:57 PM

#44

Andnoel

grinder

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 587

So, would u have called him even if u know he has AA in his range?

Well, if I am you, I would have still folded. Even if we know he makes this kinda play, it is still a marginal decision. My profit against this guy doesn't come from making marginal decision like this. I am sure I am going to have alot of much more profitable situation when I got my money in way ahead of him.

I would still fold n be happy if he shows AA

Quote:

Originally Posted by dgiharris

Results

Spoiler:

yep. V1 had AA and V2 said he had AQ and V1 said, "yeah, I was pretty sure you guys had AQ or KQ or QJ, surprised you didn't call. Guess I bet too much

Quote

04-29-2013 , 09:40 PM

#45

Avaritia

Confirmed 2500 hour haver

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 12,248

Quote:

Originally Posted by Andnoel

Hi Avarita... just want to ask what information can we infer from this tell here?

P.S. I transited from online cash game and I am a noob in terms of live tells like these... ...

Wish I could of answered this sooner so it didn't look results oriented. Insta all in is more often a spazz factor, spazz being a value hand that doesn't know wtf to do so it ships.

I mean live tells are lol in general and most on this forum do not give them too much merit (I certainly do more than most), but yea, I'd be a lot more concerned if:

Quote:

Originally Posted by kleinstein000

I would also be a lot more concerned if he thought for a little while and then shipped

Again, timing of action is just a tiny input to our decision factor, but is A6 or QQ insta shipping here after a raise/flat? Only if villain is on a massive level against dgi, which was entirely possible, it just wasn't the case here.

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04-29-2013 , 09:43 PM

#46

11t

Bo Pelini's #1 Fan

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 31,542

Make sure he thinks you had like QT

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04-29-2013 , 09:52 PM

#47

dgiharris

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 12,292

Quote:

Originally Posted by Illiterate

This. I'm not buying that V1 would overbet with a nutted hand with two streets left to get 2 PSBs in the middle. I think he flats or clicks it back with A6/QQ.

The biggest thing that threw me off was the sizing. You just don't see a high frequency of ******ed 200bb overbet shoves in this spot. I mean if there were a flush draw that's one thing...

In any event, it was an interesting hand and I thought I'd post a mistake I made... Specifically I out leveled myself and part of my mistaken read was I had yet to see what type of hands/situations villain overbet shoves. That was a piece of the read puzzle I was missing leading me to make an off read.

Quote

04-29-2013 , 09:57 PM

#48

fogodchao

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Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 3,429

it is tough readless, but I think it is safe to say that the majority of opponents are not over bet shipping this flop as the pre flop raiser when they flop a monster, especially with QQs.

a strong 6x is also very unlikely to spazz over bet ship when they are the pre flop raiser b/c they feel their hand is so well disguised and they basically have the hand on lock. at least that is my assumption of most players until proven otherwise. maybe i'd tweak this assumption if it was an omc.

but, as said, pre is a standard fold without more info. imagine you had this info and then made this call pre. you'd have a ridiculously easy time playing this post flop.

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04-29-2013 , 10:25 PM

#49

dgiharris

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Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 12,292

Quote:

Originally Posted by fogodchao

it is tough readless, but I think it is safe to say that the majority of opponents are not over bet shipping this flop as the pre flop raiser when they flop a monster, especially with QQs.

a strong 6x is also very unlikely to spazz over bet ship when they are the pre flop raiser b/c they feel their hand is so well disguised and they basically have the hand on lock. at least that is my assumption of most players until proven otherwise. maybe i'd tweak this assumption if it was an omc.

but, as said, pre is a standard fold without more info. imagine you had this info and then made this call pre. you'd have a ridiculously easy time playing this post flop.

I wish I had witnessed his QQ hand

Basically there are two sides of the ******ed coin here. Does he overbet ship the near nuts or does he overbet ship hands that seem strong but aren't strong enough to warrant a 200bb overbet like overpairs.

Basically, what direction is he ******ed.

We already establish (based on his sizing and actions) that he is never bluffing here, so what does that leave us? That leaves us w AQ, KK, AA, QQ and 6x. And based on his other hands TPGK is discounted. So we are left w overpairs and 6x. Then there is me levelling myself thinking villain has to read me for a 6 and if he reads me for a six he can shove when the reality is the thought of me having a six never crossed his fishy little LAG mind.

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04-29-2013 , 11:11 PM

#50

ATsai

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Join Date: Aug 2012 Posts: 2,409

At least you had good reasoning for your fold.

I would have puke-called because I thought my worst-case equity analysis scenario was close. Turned out that I was way off on my percentages against weaker 6x hands.

So, I would have accidentally made a correct call by using bad equity calculations. Whereas you made an incorrect fold but had a more logical thought process.

Even a broken clock is right twice a day...

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