I left that part out, but correct - if we raise to $650 and someone ships, it's close, but it is probably a call (Pot $2800, $950 to call) - but again, this (rather optimistically, IMHO) assumes our flush draw is always good. I don't think we can make that assumption. We could fold, flat, raise big or raise small, and raising small is easily the worst option.

We're almost always getting it in bad here. There are better spots to play for a $3000+ pot.

You had said we should fold as played if our flush draw was assumed good, which is incorrect. We are getting 2:1 as played, and if we assume our flush draw is good (which I don't), we should call. As played, if he rolls over AdAx, we should call.

Getting shoved on after raising to $650 is snappity snap call.

For some reason - possibly because I'm an idiot - I did the math assuming we're on the turn with one card to come. Ugh.

I'll leave my original posts up as evidence of my brain fart.

I'm not sure that I could construct reasonable ranges where we aren't getting the required price to call it off once we raise to $650.
Raise/folding at that price is almost certainly a huge mistake.

Against AKdd, AQdd, AJdd, A7dd (lol just because it makes it worse for us), 99, 55, 44 we are 31% to win.
Against AKdd, AQdd, AJdd, AxAd, 99, 55, 44, we are 34.2%
Against AKdd, AQdd, AJdd, AxAd, 99 we are 34.7%
Against AKdd, AQdd, AJdd, 99, we are 30.6%.
Against 99, 55, 44 we are 33.8%.
The absolute worst case I believe is when he only has A7dd and we are still 27.3% against that.

The idea of raise/folding here to $650 is just criminal and with most reasonable assumptions is lighting ~$250 on fire.

And given all this, since the eventual pot will be $3775 once we all gii, we are about 32% here depending on which range you want to use, so any time that we have to put in less than $1,208 into the pot we are getting the right price to call. So raise/folding anything over $1,600 - $1,208 ($392) is probably a mistake.

I just posted in another thread that T9 was a straight on T87 board, so I know how you feel!

Nitpick: If he rolls over 99, we don't have odds to call because our main pot equity is likely lower than our side pot equity.

I haven't done the math, but better flush draws really don't have us in that bad of shape. We are not crushed by them at all, and there aren't very many combos of them. SB has a lot more combos of overpairs than FDs/sets. This seems like a clear call to me (haven't done the math, though)

We are better against 99 (~35%) than AdXd (~25%).

It's really close. We need 43% equity in the side and 33% equity in the main, and I think it's closer to 40% equity in the side and 30% equity in the main.

I think preflop is fine getting this price with the relative and absolute button. I know it looks bad now that we got an awesome flop and have to fold, but this particular flop action is like the rarest permutation I can think of.

It was noted earlier in this thread that we are 27.5% vs better flush draws. I'd consider that pretty close to "crushed" when we are getting it in for about 350bb at 2-5. Against a set of nines we are 29.31%, AxAx about 40%, AdAx about 45%.

Not great numbers to stack off at for 1.7K. If we are calling here, it's with gritted teeth.

You have a hand that's 40% against almost any range HU. You can say "there's better spots" all you want, but I feel that people who have that philosophy are doomed to a lifelong purgatory at 2/5-.

It looks lolterrible when you raise/fold here, but as of when we raised, only one player showed interest in the hand, and it was someone with a 3:8 SPR. A shove from the deepest stacked player is extremely rare, and we're much more often going to be isolated against one player, paying just 150 to win 700. We should raise more for the isolation to actually work, even against like JTdd, but this is aside from the point you made.

Math often betrays expectation, especially in these convoluted MW pots with multiple-sized pots. If all you needed was 33% equity against the player with the big stack, then you'd be gravy, but the fact that 25% of the money is tied up in a pot with a third player complicates things. Improving to a pair of 8s or 6s less often saves you against a higher FD; when you hit, you more often have to fade both a FD AND a boat draw; and so forth. Such is life with non-nut combo draws.

It's pretty funny that you like getting it in @ 40% HU. That is not how you crush this game. I get it in on boards like this with my opponents drawing to 6 outs. You like to build a huge pot in a spot like this where you are often worse than a 2 to 1 underdog.

Interesting because I played full time at 5/T for years. Patience is extremely important in this game.

Raising here regardless of the subsequent action is laughably terrible. Inexperienced players often do this with gut shots and a flush draw. Would you do this with most flush draws? Why with a gut shot that only adds 3 outs?

And LMAO at expecting villains to just cast aside their superior flush draws. Most of the people in live low stakes play their flush draws as bad or worse than the people in this thread.

BTW, position matters.

This is terrible advice. Getting to the flop the way he did- the best possible action he could have taken after that mistake would be raise the flop.

"Liking" to do it is a bit of a semantical argument. I post in HH under the presumed stasis that we are interested in finding the highest EV play, not to discuss what my favorite hypothetical situation would have been. Of course I prefer to get it in as a huge favorite, and of course I'm not smiling when I put money in as a dog, but it is almost always +EV to get it in @ 40% equity HU, so I often advise to do that.

I didn't mean to imply an ad hominem with my post, and I certainly don't want to get into a pissing contest. What I meant is that when there is an option that is +EV, then there is a very obvious argument for taking that line instead of folding. People often cite reasons why taking the 0EV play is better, and based on my experience with live poker (which admittedly is probably more limited in terms of length of time and diversity of region/pros known/etc), I'm skeptical of some of those arguments. IME, those who don't GII in obviously +EV spots because they "don't need to" to have a positive winrate don't generally make it high enough up the ladder to quit their day job.

Your experiences may vary, one might not be in this game for the same reasons as me, etc; we're in the land of relativist reality here, so take whatever advice you like the most, I guess. In objective reality, GIIing as a 40% dog very often wins you more money in the long run.

An additional 3 outs OTF adds upwards of 10% equity, and very often that 10% equity is the difference between continuing being +EV and it being -EV. I'm not going to pretend that all of these spots are created equal, and this one is particularly hairy with it being so massively multiway and with there being a dry side as of our first flop action. But speaking in very general terms, that's why 8-high FDs with a GSSD are less commonly folded OTF than 8-high bare FDs.

If villains are likely to check high flushes and then cold call a shove and chunky raise, then that is certainly problematic for the strategy of iso raising. I don't happen to think this is in-line with the notes for villains left in the hand, but I'm less adamant when it comes to arguing about reads on players I've never played than when it comes to certain threads of logic.

Strongly disagree.
Flat $150 > Raise $650/c > Fold on flop > Raise $650/f

In general, raising into a dry sidepot to isolate a main pot, when hero only has a draw, becomes an infinitely worse idea the deeper hero is and the more V's left to act. In this case we're very deep AND have two V's left to act.

Think of it this way, if we force remaining Vs to fold, we get a chance at a $700 pot with at best ~48% equity (assuming whale has pair of 9s or so). That's sweet. But the thing is, if we assume that Vs are only calling with sets, bigger draws, and occasionally overpairs, folding out all other hands is actually negative EV over having them call $150. Our hand, as a draw, has what we call absolute equity. In other words, we have 48% equity vs a pair of 9s heads up, and we have ~45% equity four handed vs. pocket queens, AKo, and 9X. And the pot increases by $150 each time they call...so our 45% EV is on a larger number.

Further, by raising we're creating a dry sidepot which by definition if we do get called we're never going to have better than say 40% EV. This could be fine, but not when our remaining stack far larger than the main pot.

On the other hand if we flat, we still get our 48% equity in $150:$700 if everyone folds, and if someone else calls we're giving up very little equity and we get to play a side pot with a disguised draw, with two cards to play, in position, with $1450 behind.

This should just be a fold to the 20 pre because MP is in the hand. Calling because of MP is backwards.

No other way to say this- you're wrong.

It's 4 ways, that texture smashes everyone's range besides the pfr. Utg checked (doesn't have anything), fish goes all in, do the math what odds your getting.

Factor in the huge mistake pre see: rio

You raise now- you force sb and utg to fold their equity, protect yours and you get an amazing price for your draw considering you get to see both cards against the atc whale.

Hero needed to raise more. Nobody is going to call a k high fd, probably not even a ace hi fd being so deep and oop. Sb- facing bet and a big raise on this board- JJ+ is an easy fold.

I get different numbers on everything except better flush draws. 33.84% against 99, 45.25% against all AA, 42.73% against AdAx.

It's silly to argue semantics, but I thought that people didn't realize we had as much as 27.5% equity against better flush draws based on how they were talking about it.

I don't know why I was lazy before. The math isn't that hard.

The main pot is $855, the side pot is $2900. In order to call we need this to be true:

855*E1+2900*E2 >= 1250, where E1 is our main pot equity and E2 is our side pot equity.

I dunno which one of us made the mistake, but using 33% and 43% I get that a call is +$279, and using 30% and 40% a call is +$167 EV

I assigned MP a range of the top 4-80% of hands, then filtered for any bottom pair or better or any gutshot draw or better.

SB has no reason to think an overpair isn't good here. All that has happened is a small shove from a whale and a dinky <1/3 pot raise. This board does not hit ranges hard in a 3-bet pot. He could be (should be?) checking his entire range for information because he expects MP to shove. I think his range is likely {QQ+, 99, flush draws}

If we give SB {QQ+, 99, diamond suited broadways}, we have 38.28% in the side and 33.48% in the main, for +$146 EV.

Take out QQ and we have 36.99% in the side and 31.95% in the main, for +$96 EV.

Take out KK also and we have 34.24% in the side and 28.56% in the main, for -$13 EV.

I doubt he has all diamond broadways in his range, though. I had all of them because they are bad for us. If he has {AA, 99, AdTd+}, we have 37.14% in the side and 32.47% in the main, for +$105 EV.

Also, I was wrong before. Given the range I used for MP, if SB has 99 we have a +$5 EV call.

I would call, although I don't think we should have gotten to this spot.

Its a call. Idk why people are saying fold, unless they cant do pot odds/ev calculation.

At least someone else got this part ^^

FWIW I think still pre is fine. There's enough edge to go around in live poker in terms of tells, reads, bad play etc to make this fine.

What is this thread even about?

You helped build a large PF pot with a weird hand that apparently had you hypnotized with its shiny red diamonds.

Then on the flop you put in 1/4 of your stack and induced someone to shove over top of you.

Now you don't know what to do. Is this a joke? If you don't know what to do when this guy shoves, don't bait him. FFS. This is war; it's not a walk in the park.

Really when I'm at the tables it feels like a walk in the park far more often than it does a war. But then again, perhaps we play different games.

SB 3bet to 100 OOP in a spot where he can flat KQs.

I dont think he has many flush draws so snap call.

Not sure about flatting the 20 open. If you are targeting the whale your implied odds arent very good. Only 12.5 to 1. Its better to isolate him with Ax or pairs using direct odds

Flatting the flop is a decent option but raise takes this down without showdown a lot and is pretty std

I dont usually call this pre flop but you have no choice but to call the 100. The only place to fold is to the intitial 20 open. You cant fold now because you still have 10 outs vs flush draws and probably getting overlay. Only need like 40 ish equity or less but its just a math problem now. Not sure if he would shove overpair tho so he didnt fold the hand we wanted him to fold so if he is only on nut flush draw its a fold but i think he has big pairs that he doesnt want to fold

seem like a smart guy so I'll try one more time. The critical element is understanding why SB/UTG fold equity With JJ+ or ATC is worth less than 3%, except in cases where hands arent folding anyway (sets, bigger draws). Do yourself a favor and pull up a poker stove or poker odds calculator and run the equity on 8d6d vs. Whale's 9X type hand on this flop, then run it again against 3 hands: ATC and the SB/UTG hands of KQs+, 44+. When you realize it's virtually the same equity for our hand -- yet the main pot is bigger if Vs call the $150, maybe the light bulb will click "on".

I can understand why you'd think what you're saying is correct until you realize that making SB/UTG "fold their equity", when you're already against whale's hand in main pot, just doesn't do anything for hero here. Unless you think hero can win the main pot unimproved (8 high)...we actually WANT a $150 call vs JJ-AA in main pot because we only win the pot with a diamond, 7, or running 8s/6s regardless and if we hit that we beat both hands.

Simultaneously, we also don't want to play a dry side pot against hands like AA-JJ as we have sub-50% equity. That's exactly what we do by raising. We fold out this nonexistent equity and we invite Vs to decide whether to play a dry side pot where our hand can't be favored.

Have no idea how to make it any more clear / simple to understand.