Just sat down with 1k (max at this casino)

2 limps
I raise $30 from co w/ AJ
Villain (covers) young Asian w/glasses & golf shirt calls from SB
MP limper calls

Flop J108

I bet $60
SB calls, MP folds

Turn 8
I bet $150, SB calls

River 8
He donks $425

very strange. call?

I think that I'd fold here.
You took a super strong line.
You raised 6x pre, bet the entire pot on the flop, bet 3/4 the pot on the turn and he still donks into you for the pot on the river when any PP that you have will now make a full house.
He can't really expect you to fold AA-QQ here, can he?
So, what is he hoping to bluff out? AK?

I think he likely had 8dXd (A8, K8, T8, 98, 78) all of which flopped a pair + flush draw got better on the turn, and rivered the nuts. And now he wants to be out to make sure that he gets full value from all the PP's in your range, and all the full houses that you flopped or rivered.

Would be sick if he was drawing with 8-X. Are we worried about TT? Did you see him play any big pots before this hand in question? Would he 3bet TT or smooth call pre? More likely to me he's holding J-X. If I had an overpair, maybe a cry call. But looks like you're chopping at best. Without a better read, probably a fold, but curious what others would say.

At best it seems to me you will chop, a higher majority you will lose.

Fold.

Without any read I guess puke/fold. This is a great board for bluffing on river, but villain has to have both JX and 8X in his range also. With no read on what sort of ratio I can expect between them, I don't like calling when hero hopes to chop a lot.

This is a very tough spot. He might have an 8 here, but there is obviously only one left.

I see thinking players take this line with a Jx as well, especially if they are worried about their kicker. They see this river, and try to make you fold a chop. I personally would probably bet a J here if I was in his shoes.

Honestly, if it's truely your first hand, I still call and expect a chop. I'm not going to fold to the case 8 here until I have better reads.

this is a fold. there is too much out there (including 2 pairs) thats ahead of you, and he waited till the river to get it in. If he was bluffing he would bluff the flop or turn, not wait till the river when you are leading out a double barrel.

?? Hero has a full house, so 2 pair isn't ahead here...

I'd really love to know the outcome of this hand. Contrary to most other replies to this post, I'm leaning toward calling. Probably not the right call, but I have a hard time believing V has the case 8 or TT in his hand. Wow, what a tough spot.

Fold.
I had a similar situation yesterday and with such a big bet I don't see him doing that with all of his jacks. He could still have AA-QQ

I'm not good enough to fold... If he's got an 8 it's jbl but it don't see him calling w an 8 otf

Calling for a chop is a huge losing play with bb betting close to pot. You have to be right almost 100% of the time calling 425 to win 450 (900/2). If you count in the odd 8x and AA, you would have to add quite a few pure bluffs in his range to make this a call.

Why would villain not x/r the flop with TT or x/r the turn with an 8? The most likely hand he has that beats us is QQ IMO, as AA-KK is always 3-betting pre, but he still probably 3-bets with at least half his QQ combos if not more or all of them. I guess he could have T8s and filled up on the turn too, but unlikely.

Even with no reads I still think I'm calling here.

I would definitely fold.

If we were deeper shoving would be kind of cool as I don't think he's polarized here often

However I do think weirdly played tens or queens make up a decent part of a young Asian in the sb cold calling range here.

Really sick spot in that he can be drawing at a nasty combo draw with 89/Q/7 and now be sitting on the nuts. I wonder how much FE he thinks he has in this spot to be bluffing?

Just for reference, this is what I tally the pot sizes to be:
PF: 30*3+10=100
Flop: Bet 60 (into 100)+60(call) = 220
Turn: Bet 150 (into 220)+150(call) = 520
River: V donks 425 (into 520)

So you're looking at calling $425 to win $945

I'm not really very good a the math from this point on, so someone should correct me where I screw up from here on out.

Let's hypothetically assign these percentages:
15% - He has an 8 and you lose.
5% - He has TT+ and you lose.
20% - He is bluffing with 99/Tx or worse and you win.
60% - He has a J and you split.

Seem fair? In that scenario, a call is warranted because your equity is 50%. Your hand is worth $685 (1370*.2+685*.6). It's pretty close though because you're being offered 45% on the call (425 to win 945), right? So folding and calling are pretty close. If you assume the percentages above are exactly correct (spoiler: they're probably not), it's a very close call. If you think there's a much lower chance he's bluffing/you're winning, it's probably a fold.

I'm sure I've screwed up this math somewhere. At least I gave it a shot though, right?Help?

I wish I were good enough to fold, but I don't think I am. Calling in spots like this (or because I think they are trying to bluff me -- giving them too much credit when they are just playing their cards) is my biggest leak. My win rate would be much higher if I could find more good folds.

The math, pot odds, etc. don't matter if he is never bluffing! At best I think it's a chop. An 8x diamond draw makes a lot of sense. Think about it from his shoes.

A realistic hand until the river for most players is a diamond draw. This is the type of hand you will see a lot of players turn into a bluff when they miss. So assuming it doesn't contain an eight, that is the bluff you will beat. (I.E. if we call this is what we hope he has) In his shoes with this type of hand, NEW player takes an aggressive line, most of which will contain big pairs or AJ type hands the occasional multi street bluff with AK. So against that range are you willing to put that chunk o' money in against a new player on this board with air?
Maybe if he is steaming, but you just sat down and have no info on that situation. Most likely, you are beat MAYBE you will split. Either way bad investment. Muck and move on.

I think the idea is right on here, but you don't want to just give him random %'s for hands that you think that he might have.
You are much better of factually giving him certain combinations of cards once we get to the river.

For example:
He can have 1xAA (discounted to 1 combo as he almost always 3! pre flop)
He can have 1xKK (against discounted to 1 combo for same reason)
2x QQ (discounted)
1x JJ
2x AJs
1x KJs
1x KJo (it's possible, but unlikely)
1x TT (discounted as he likely raises before the river)
5x 8dXd (A8s K8s Q8s, 98s, 78s)
And we will give him 3 combos of hands that are actually bluffs (or that he is turning into a bluff such as 66, AT, KQdd)

Then you want to calculate your odds to win. It gives you are more reasonable estimate of the probability that he holds each type of hand instead of 15% 60% & whatever else we sort of haphazardly assign.

Side note: Could be a really good way for him to play KQ as its a good river card for him to bluff at.

Without prior hand histories with V I think his bet sizing OTR looks awfully bluffy. Have you seen V value bet nutted hands OTR prior to this?

true. I was thinking 8J/810 on the flop that quadded up.

I hate calling hoping for a chop. I would think the villian is also affraid we have a jack or an 8 with our line, but still shoves.

No way I could fold here without more background on villain. looks like a busted draw to me

srsly, this whole hand history just looks like button clicking to me. all those concepts about FE, combination counting, bluff range, value range, range merging etc could easily not be applied by him. to me it doesn´t look like he knows what he is doing here, and he got me confused enough to call.

I'm personally checking the turn. The SPR here is > 16 so I don't really want to go to war with TPTK. I know the board is super wet and we'll miss out on value often but I like a pot control line IP.

As played I think we need to fold. Against a range of TT, AJs, Ad8d, KJs, QJs, JTs, Td8d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 8d6d, AJo, KJo we have ~36% equity. Calling $425 to win $935 we only need 31%. However, often times we're only going to win half the pot so our equity would need to be much higher.

I doubt he would make this move with missed diamonds because opponents who can fold full houses are rare at this level. He especially can't expect you to fold one without any history.