Villain is and an old man, obviously just a recreational player, been card racking it and has gotten his stack over 4k(mbn). He plays very straight forward and is a level 1 thinker.

Iv got right around 2k.

UTG+1 with ~600 opens to 30, folds to me I call on the CO with T9 and Villain 3b's to 130 in the sb...

It's like 5% of my stack to call here but i don't know if i have the correct implied odds because Im not sure how often i stack this villain 400bb's effective in a 3b pot. But If i flop like 2 pair+ I know im getting way more out of this guy than the typical 2/5 moron.

Comments and/or math (if possible) are appreciated.

You overlooked some very important information. Even this "could" be a deep stacked hand, it still belongs to small stakes live.

I like to have at least 20-1 stack odds to make calls with suited connectors preflop and position. And do I think villain is likely to stack off with overpr? So to call 100$ I would like to be able to win at least 2000$, just the same as set mining...

I think villains range is super uber strong usually so this answer should carry you pretty well. (Especially if you have seen villain bet and barrel hard sort of regardless of semi-scare cards falling)

We flop:
3 of a kind 1.4%
2p 2%
OESD 20%
FD 10%

In total, we hit some kind of draw or combo 27.5%, excluding naked gutshots but including gutshots + pairs.

How do we weight our reverse implied odds based on how deep we are? For instance there is no way in hell I'm stacking off 400bb without the nut flush.

Fold pre the first time unless our opponent is the type that plays fit/fold postflop.

Second time, even if UTG+1 folds, there is 95 in the pot and you have to call 100, so calling 100 to win 195, you're near getting 2 to 1 and you have 19:1 implied... and villain's range should be like QQ+ (if not tighter.. )

The question is:

What happens when the flop/turn board is TTxx/99xx... Will our opponent still stack off with QQ+?

What about a T98 flop?

Are you comfortable stacking off on JT9 flops?

How will our opponent react on 876 flop?

KQJ ?(obviously if he has QQ/KK, he's gonna stack off, but will he stack off with AA?)

All heart flop and our opponent has non hearts overpairs?

2 heart flop and then we turn a heart?

Axx flops? Will he check/fold with QQ/KK? How can we win the hand if we have to bluff?



idk, i wouldn't say im nitty, but folding pre the first time is probably correct.

Unless the board runs out 4 cards to a flush, you rarely have to worry about not having the nut flush, because

3bet out of the SB from a older straight forward rec player is mostly AA, KK. there is even a higher chance of running into QQ here than AK

We don't need the nut flush if our opponent never 3bets a hand like AJs/AQs/AKs. If we flop a flush, our flush is essentially the nuts because our opponents range is overpairs.

And if flop comes with the A we essentially have the nut flush.

What's your image/villain's perception of you?

That's going to affect how much value you get when make 2p/flush/straight.

grunch

I use 10-15 bet to stack size for PPs and 15-20 times for SCs (depending on V). The most likely flop that hits SCs are str8 and FDs (about 4:1 for either). So.............. if V1 plays well, he will never give you the proper odds to see the turn unless he flops and slow plays a set (gives him 10 outs to boat). This looks like a very expensive investment for the ROI potential. I would fold PF here.
Most likely outcome - you whiff the flop and fold to his c-bet. The most likely positive outcome - you flop either a str8 or FD and V1 bets the pot with his overpair - are you shoving or calling - if you shove you really need to know the vilian very well to have enough FE (at least 25% for this investment). If you call then you still have to be really confident that the V will pay you off when your draw comes in. Most 2/5 players will not with single pair hands, especially when the FD hits. Your only chance of getting most or all of his stack is V flopping a set vs your combo draw which comes in.
Bottom line is stack sizes are big enough for the implied odds to play, but most 2/5 players will not stack off with single pair hands. I would cut effective stack to a size that V would pay off with single pair and use that for your implied odds. Consider a 100 BB for a tag/nit and 200 BB for a Lag A 100 bet is 20 BB so vs effective stacks you fold as you are not getting the 15-20 bet:stack odds.