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2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? 2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn?

03-05-2015 , 11:04 AM
V(BTN): Successful middle aged lawyer. Currently on 3rd bullet in for 3k, buying in full each time. He is doing a ton of 3betting otb and check raising otf. In an earlier hand he opened T7hh to $50 utg, cbet $200 into $250 on K84hhh, then jammed over $1k eff on a 4x turn and somehow got called by AKo. He is triple barreling a ton and even when he rivers significant showdown value he loves to turn his hand into a bluff/go for extremely thin value.

Preflop: Hero is HJ with JJ
1 limp. Hero (3300) raises 30. V(1800) calls. 2 other calls.

Flop(120): J54
Hero bets 80. Only V flats.

Turn(280):7
Hero bets 180. V raises 480. Hero flats.

River(1240):6
Hero tank checks. V instantly shoves. Hero folds.

I think jamming turn is a mistake this deep and because he is so aggro-fishy I need to keep all his air in range which is bombing the river 100% of the time. Although he is extremely aggressive I have seen him back down to opponents coming over the top multiple times so I want to give him action on any non 4 straight river.

In hindsight I think my sizing can be a lot bigger, very close to pot. In a multiway pot I believe they either have something they want to continue with or not, and if they will call 2/3 then they will most definitely call psb.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 11:12 AM
I think that we have to call the river here if he has a history of turning made hands into a bluff.

He can show up here with a lot more paid+fd hands that whiffed the river, rivered two pair+fd, oesd that went runner runner two pair.
All of which is sounds like he will be shipping the river.

As far as jamming the turn, while we do want him to bluff into us on the river, there is still ~17 cards that we don't love on the river including any non pairing diamond, any 6, 8, or 3.
I think that while we can get extra value from him on good rivers we can end up folding the best hand too often when we get scared on half the deck.

I'm going to raise the turn. I just can't decided if I want to shove or raise to 1.2k

Last edited by iraisetoomuch; 03-05-2015 at 11:18 AM.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 11:22 AM
What do you think he is raising the turn with?
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 11:22 AM
Bet a little more on the flop. I think the turn is a mandatory 3bet. He's not raising with pure air, which means he's drawing to win a huge pot. He has a lot of big hands that can pay off (all smaller sets, maybe even two pair or combo draws).

As played and given your read, this seems like a call. The only hands that realistically beat us are 86s, 63s, 32s, Ad9d, Ad3d, Kd8d, and maybe Qd8d. You don't mention whether which of those are in his range, but I have to assume a lot of those hands are at least discounted preflop. The biggest reason to fold is if he will check behind two pair hoping it might be good, but you say the opposite, that he is likely to (correctly) view those hands as bluffs.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 11:23 AM
i´d call, we´re getting 2 to 1, and it seems somewhat hard for villain to have an 8 in this spot although possible, and i´d think he would think about everything but an 8 a little longer, even although he most likely would also shove the bottom end of the str8 here, he might just take a little longer to do it.

given his history as extremely bluff happy, we know he will have some bluffs on this runout, and getting 2 to 1 seems fine with me to call.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 11:38 AM
I don't think this kind of villain is ever checking back the flop on his button. I would likely c/r flop. Probably 3! shipping turn. You have to think V is super aggro to call river, it's very rare that I see someone shipping in this spot without an 8 (maybe a 3). It's really just a gut check spot. Are you good here at least a third of the time?
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 11:59 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IbelieveinChipKelly
What do you think he is raising the turn with?
If you are asking me:
Pair + fd, pair + sd, pair + sd/fd, two pair, sets, straights, sd+fd, 5% wtf bluff factor
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 12:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iraisetoomuch
If you are asking me:
Pair + fd, pair + sd, pair + sd/fd, two pair, sets, straights, sd+fd, 5% wtf bluff factor
No, it was just a general question.

I don't see a lot of villains taking the line of raising the turn with pair/draws here. That's why I am having a very hard time finding a fold.

He'd have to raise the turn with something like 78dd. IDK.

I think it's more likely he has a made hand on the turn. Two pair, lower set, straights.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 02:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by pocketzeroes
I don't think this kind of villain is ever checking back the flop on his button. I would likely c/r flop. Probably 3! shipping turn. You have to think V is super aggro to call river, it's very rare that I see someone shipping in this spot without an 8 (maybe a 3). It's really just a gut check spot. Are you good here at least a third of the time?
to end it i guess? or to take it down right here?
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 04:33 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by TheJusticeBringer
In hindsight I think my sizing can be a lot bigger, very close to pot. In a multiway pot I believe they either have something they want to continue with or not, and if they will call 2/3 then they will most definitely call psb.
I think your sizing is fine. I think the real issue is that if you're ever planning on folding the river you should raise the turn. When you tank check the river that's a Green Light to bluff.

I think it's very unlikely he has an eight or three. If you think he's shoving the river very often you need to call.

What hand are we supposed to think he has something like 8d7d? Why would he bluff the turn and not the flop?

Since you wouldn't check the river with an eight, not only is he likely bluffing, but he could even be value-betting worse hands.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 05:52 PM
Thing is, if he had an 8, why would he ship it here?
Wouldn't he want to get a hand that he beats to call?

I think this is the ultimate scare card, if he has a flush draw or a scared 2 pair or something this is the absolute best card to bluff
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 06:08 PM
Vs an unpredictable player like this I see no reason why we shouldnt be 3 betting turn. It's really hard for him to be reraising here super light and who knows, that spazz factor could come into play. His continuing range in the turn is likely wider than most. I honestly really like shoving, we get max value the times he just can't let go of 2 pair plus.

When we don't 3 bet turn and fold to this river I feel like it's a mistake vs this guy. He is known to turn all sorts of hands with show down value into bluffs. Couldn't his shoving range be incredibly wide? Just seems like we missed our spot to get max value in the turn.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by au4all
I think your sizing is fine. I think the real issue is that if you're ever planning on folding the river you should raise the turn. When you tank check the river that's a Green Light to bluff.

I think it's very unlikely he has an eight or three. If you think he's shoving the river very often you need to call.

What hand are we supposed to think he has something like 8d7d? Why would he bluff the turn and not the flop?

Since you wouldn't check the river with an eight, not only is he likely bluffing, but he could even be value-betting worse hands.
Wow we actually agree on something.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 07:00 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by sauhund
to end it i guess? or to take it down right here?
To get him to spaz out and get all the money in asap.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 07:20 PM
call ainec
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-05-2015 , 08:26 PM
What are other examples of him going for very thin value/turning his hands into bluffs? Does he call with a wide range preflop or only raise wide?

I see why some are saying that his hand does look bluffy and we are losing to so few hands and I agree. But x/c a psb deep like this is pretty hard to do even if villains line doesnt make sense. As played, I agree if we arent raising the turn which I think we should, calling the psb shove on the river does make sense.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-06-2015 , 12:04 AM
What is villains image of you?

I'm confused. I assumed hero checked to call off OTR. Was your check b/c you are afraid of the straight? He should have relatively few (8Xdd or non 88 that tried to bluff you when he picked up a gutter,) and based on reads I expect him to bet 2p (67) and sets big for value since he has a merged river betting range (and it sounds more merged than polarized with this villain).

I don't really see any problem with sizing. I do however think a turn ship over top shouldn't be rulked out. He does have draws in his range (although I'd expect a flop raise more commonly) that we won't get river value from. If he has a set he's not folding ott anyway. He might dump 2p to a ship but he can still put us on the NFD and call sometimes.

So I think I agree that if we are considering folding this river we prob should consider shipping the turn.

If he has 34 or som rando 8 I thinker just gets paid.

Last edited by cAmmAndo; 03-06-2015 at 12:14 AM.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-06-2015 , 10:35 AM
I offered to pay him to see his cards after the hand was over and he refused. I also asked him to tell me what he had after he racked up and he told me he had 2p which flopped open ended but based on all my history with him this really doesn't make any sense. He should pretty much always be raising flop with that hand. Whenever I ask someone this question I of course do not believe them, I am just trying to see how FOS they are. It is amazing how bad of a liar players are, including decent regs.

I am surprised that the overwhelming consensus is to just stick it in on the turn. It really can't be that clear cut this deep in a single raised pot.
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7weeks2days
What are other examples of him going for very thin value/turning his hands into bluffs? Does he call with a wide range preflop or only raise wide?

I see why some are saying that his hand does look bluffy and we are losing to so few hands and I agree. But x/c a psb deep like this is pretty hard to do even if villains line doesnt make sense. As played, I agree if we arent raising the turn which I think we should, calling the psb shove on the river does make sense.
In an earlier hand I raised QQ from the BB over a bunch of limps to $40. 3way T65r I cbet $75 he raises to $175 only I flat. Turn 2x he bets $150 I flat. Riv 9x he ends up checking back with A7o but this is the only time I can ever recall him checking back after showing aggression on earlier streets.

I don't recall the action on this hand but basically he flops bot2 oop with JTo on QJT then donks the flop into 2 other players. Turn 8x he still bets and both call. Riv blanks and he still decides to go for a 3rd bet. His sizing was significantly bigger in this one.

His 1st bullet was a bunch of spewy maniac play but he has played significantly better on the 2nd and 3rd bullet. He busted the 2nd bullet at 1.1k eff after stacking off with 65o on 743 vs a solid regs 77 which filled up immediately. However in this hand he COLD CALLED A 3BET TO $65 IN THE SB.

One big sizing tell I have picked up on him is that he bets 2/3 to pot when he has a value hand, but closer to 1/3 when he is on complete air or turning some hand with small showdown value into a suicide bluff.
Quote:
Originally Posted by cAmmAndo
What is villains image of you?
V knows I am very active so he is 3betting my opens and attacking my cbets a very high percentage of of the time.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-06-2015 , 10:40 AM
It makes me sad that you folded.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-06-2015 , 12:31 PM
Gotta call here or u shouldn't play this deep! 1.2k is never a value bet...
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote
03-06-2015 , 06:22 PM
Op I believe your villain. I thought 67 was consistent with this line. He raises turn as a semi-bluff/equity protection bet then over-bets for value vs heroing over pairs. Your hand prob looks a lot like QQ+ to him.
2/5 Ultra deep top set facing river shove. Too deep to shove turn? Quote

      
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