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2/5 - TPTK raise/call vs raise/fold 2/5 - TPTK raise/call vs raise/fold

05-17-2012 , 01:01 PM
^^ I personally do not feel comfortable calling it off here. What range are we mostly ahead of? I see a range of 33,77, KsQs, AsQs, AsJs maybe. And villain is probably more likely to fast play a set in a 3way pot as opposed to a HU pot. Villain likely slowplayed his set before in a HU situation so to assume he "always slow plays sets" is probably a misconception. in a 3way pot I would personally be more inclined to shove a set in this spot as opposed to slow playing it. SPR otf is too high to get it in with 1 pair vs a 60 yr old reg. Usually flop 3bets are the nuts every time. We need to remember that villain lead out into a 3way pot while he was not even the pfr. And then 3bets our raise. SUPER STRONG IMO. FOLD
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05-17-2012 , 01:02 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Is the consensus that without seeing villain slowplay the set this is an easy fold? And possibly not even a raise?

Furthermore, if villain check/raises us are we snap folding? He has check/raised the river 2x (one of which was with a boat on the slowplayed set).
Old men check/raises, you bet I will fold, especially this guys history
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05-17-2012 , 01:06 PM
Another theory might be that he didn't want to slow play his buddy.

Anyhow, you have any other HH?
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05-17-2012 , 01:08 PM
Nah, I mean I was watching him play but he was definitely more aggressive than your typical ABC old man coffee. I would say he was pretty LAG for being an old guy and tricky.

Again we weren't playing together for very long, an hour is like 2 or 3 orbits but him check/raising the river 2x was a huge alarm in my mind that this guy was very much a non standard player.
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05-17-2012 , 01:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Is the consensus that without seeing villain slowplay the set this is an easy fold? And possibly not even a raise?

Furthermore, if villain check/raises us are we snap folding? He has check/raised the river 2x (one of which was with a boat on the slowplayed set).
Do you remember the action in the hand with 66 on an 8-6-5 board?
HU or multiway? Preflop raise or limp? What position was he in relative to the player betting?

I ask because we might be able to work out why that set was a slowplay, and why he might fast play one here.

1.) Depending on the preflop action or number of players in the pot, he could have been playing scared with his set more than slow playing it.

2.) Older guys hate flushes. I mean really hate them. They also assume other players hate them as well. He could easily be jamming with 77/33 (QQ would not shock me at all) here trying to get it in before any scare cards show up.

The only reasonable hands I see the villain showing up with here are 77, 33, QQ, AQss, and AKss. I am with you that AA and KK seem unlikely. It is a crap shoot figuring out how some of these guys deal with AKs and QQ pre, but him not 3betting with those hands wouldn't be unusual.
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05-17-2012 , 01:21 PM
I snap here. The types of players that slowplay a set on a wet board and then b/3b on this board are often going to be either spewing with a draw, or trying to protect a TPGK/bottom 2 type of hand.
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05-17-2012 , 01:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 1ns71nct
Given us 360 to win 1020 a little over 2.8 to call, it's a crying call.
it's not to win 1020. It's to win ~670
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05-17-2012 , 01:37 PM
You need >35% equity in the hand for this to be a good call. I don't see it.

The only way you can be good is if he has a ton of draws in his range, since you don't beat anything else when it plays out this way.

Based on a range of:
A8-AK, KQs, 77, 33

it's nearly a ~0EV situation so it could go either way. I personally don't like to make a call in a spot like this. I'm not really sure I like the raise on the flop either, I would just call.
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05-17-2012 , 02:08 PM
Damn, I doubt AA/KK is in his range tho... You really think he'd just flat those??
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05-17-2012 , 02:18 PM
I mean I am never surprised if he shows up with AA/KK but I might have like 1 combo between the 12 combos for your average player.
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05-17-2012 , 02:56 PM
Anyway, I tanked for about a minute and him slow playing a set and his check/river raising basically convinced me he didn't have a big hand here and I called.

Turn

A

River

Qs

He flips over A4s and my boat is good.
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05-17-2012 , 02:59 PM
A4 as in naked flush draw?
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05-17-2012 , 03:03 PM
yeah, with the over card obv
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05-17-2012 , 03:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
yeah, with the over card obv
Wow.
Nice read. I was posting before your comment about him being more LAG than the usual old guy type.
I still probably lay it down, but I am a fish like that.
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05-17-2012 , 03:18 PM
Nah I think folding here is fine and it is a snap fold without the read. In reality without the read I probably don't raise here but like I didn't think he had any set/2 pair combos in his range so I stacked off.
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05-17-2012 , 03:21 PM
I actually don't think there's enough read still.

Anyhow, money would have gone in on turn.
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05-17-2012 , 03:24 PM
Poker is a game of limited information sometimes you gotta go with your gut!
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05-17-2012 , 03:26 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Nah I think folding here is fine and it is a snap fold without the read. In reality without the read I probably don't raise here but like I didn't think he had any set/2 pair combos in his range so I stacked off.
That's why I was asking about exactly how the hand with the set played out.

Thinking back about this, I can think of one guy I play with from time to time in Tunica who fits this style perfectly.
Terrible player - great donator to the game. Slow plays every set, and will often call with KK/AA pre.
If he is shoving a flop/turn, he is weak/on a draw. If he is betting/raising a river, he has you in the rim ram (or thinks he does).

I once snapped him off on an overbet turn shove on on a board something like A-x-x-x with me holding A9x where he showed up with 22. Had played with him the day before and watched him shove nuts on the river, slow play sets, straights, and flushes until the river, and the only big bets he made before the river were bluffs. Patterns ftw!
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05-17-2012 , 03:40 PM
Nobody sees that raising here is a mistake? You are forcing yourself into marginal situations at best.

You guys are good!
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05-17-2012 , 03:47 PM
Value raise homie
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05-17-2012 , 03:58 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Value raise homie
If I'm analyzing the board and your game correctly, I would say you were betting to protect. Signs of a weak player.
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05-17-2012 , 04:00 PM
Half your posts are signs you are a weak player, please at some point offer actual advice or post a hand
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05-17-2012 , 04:14 PM
I give advice people just ignore it. I told you why raising was the wrong play. Its on you to listen or not to listen.
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05-17-2012 , 04:16 PM
If you think the majority of his range is FD's and big queens then you should raise here.

DUCY?
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05-17-2012 , 04:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 11t
Value raise homie
you are an experienced player, so i wonder why you tanked so long before calling...
i always read here that u gotta have a plan when raise, and you obv are not the kind of player who raises for info or "because i had the best hand". your raise in that spot seems to me that you liked to get it in here. did you get second thoughts? or slowroll the old dude
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