Effective stacks 500. Villian just bought in for 500 a few hands ago, after asking the floor what the most he could buy in for was and being taken aback when he was told 1000. He's late 40's early 50's, and he limped every hand previous to this one then c/f the flop on all but one hand where he bet out on the flop and picked up a small pot.

3 limpers to him in the CO, he makes it 30, and I call with AQ, everyone else folds. I have only see him play 5 hands, but he limped every one, so that size raise I'm thiking 10s or better, AK, AQ, possibly AJ

Flop: (pot 77)
q53

Villain makes it 80, I make it 200. My thinking is that his most likely hands at this point are AA,AK,AQ, KK, JJ, 10s I don't think he'd make a PSB with QQ, as most players like him check a set on the flop or make a small bet so they don't lose you.

He calls, fast, like he's reaching for chips before I finish making the bet. oops. if he's any good I can't see him having anything but AA or KK here. If he's terribad I guess he could have AK with the K

Turn: (Pot 477)
8

He checks his hole cards and pushes his last 270 in the pot. Well he definitely has the K, 90% he has KK, but I can't see folding here, I have 14 outs and a slight chance of being good right now. I call.

You actually have 13 outs (3 Aces, 2 Queens and 8 spades).
Calling is correct.

The odds you're getting OTR: (477+270)/270=2.76/1
The odds needed to call if he has kings: 70.455%/29.545%=2.38/1 (see below)



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

44 games 0.005 secs 8,800 games/sec

Board: Qs 5s 3d 8s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.455% 70.45% 00.00% 31 0.00 { KhKs }
Hand 1: 29.545% 29.55% 00.00% 13 0.00 { AsQc }

Why are you raising the flop? It's certainly not for value as you're only getting action off better. He's made a full pot sized bet which just screams protection bet. As played, you have to call the turn.

I don't understand why you keep putting him on a range which beats you and shovelling as much money into the pot as possible.

My thinking was if I call and a scare card comes on the turn, I don't get paid off. If I call and my hand doesn't improve on the turn, I'm probably folding to another PSB. On the flop I didn't know that he had the K, and I had his range as AA, KK, AK, JJ, 10s. The PSB definitely slants that range toward AA, KK, but even so, I couldn't realistically put him on just those 2 hands at this point. I was probably giving him 80% AA,KK, and 20% the rest. So by raising I'm committing our stacks to get AI if I improve on the turn, and getting value/fe from the part of his range I'm ahead of.

You're basically thinking about it completely wrongly and the first sentence doesn't go with the rest of what you wrote. You say you are worried about not getting paid off? By What?????????If you don't believe he'll ever bet the turn with worse then flat the flop and fold the turn.

Try to think like this? What part of his range are you ahead of? Why do we need need/want FE against this.

What part of his range are we behind, why are we committing against this?

What is absolutely crucial is that raising this hand on this flop could be completely fine but given your reads on villain is is totally counter productive in this case.

your hand is far too strong to bluff the flop with.

Then fold pre.

Cmon guys, OP cant get a clue unless u are brutally honest with him.

OP, sorry buddy but you played this hand as bad as it can possibly be done.
Whats worse is your thought process is close to what i would expect a random person off the street to have. I am NOT being personal or mean, im saying that to you to bring it to your attention so that you understand where you are in the game at this time which hopefully will stimulate you to learn and grow.

Fold pre, It isnt close. Flop raise is otrocious. Turn call would be otrocious.
Jesus, what does the guy have to do to convince you he has a gigantua hand?

Are you a random guy off the street?

+1

although I may not be capable of folding pre in this spot (really depends on game dynamic, how deep we are, what the standard raise size is... 30 is biggish for 2/5 in some games but standard in others). On the flop, i am probably calling, then fold turn. I dunno, i kinda just sit and play and try to make the best reads i can. i guess the point of this rant is that i'm probably not getting away from AQ pre like ANL said he would...

wow I thought I was the local nit...

villain has played 5 hands, thats enough to determine he has a monster and we should fold aq preflop?

\



Guy in late 40s limps 5 hands. Now he wants to overbetsize a preflop raise. He will show up with about what he showed up with 90% of the time or better. I have folded KK preflop 8 times this year. 7 of the 8 times the villains cant help themselves but show their AA to the table. Its not being nitty. Its knowing where you are in a hand, who you are up against, and what value your hand has, no matter how big or small.

6bbs is not an overbet. if he's raising 1 in 5 hands that 20% of hands.

how do you know what this guy considers the nuts anyways? Maybe 10s are.

We obviously know that he has KK or AA but if you're at a table and this happens it's a pretty easy call preflop.

It's funny that most all of these situations that come up can be answered with the same simple statement, which is to ask the OP why exactly he did what he did and move from there. I think that's what people are doing. I am not as critical of the pre-flop call and most people here, because in low stakes NLHE live it is easy to stack people with two pairs, straights, etc, because most players, whether fish or nit, get married to top pair and especially to their pocket pair hands.

But, as people have stated on here, your raise on the flop is terrible because it is a raise that can only put you in a worse position, either by putting more money in the flop when you are drawing thin, or by getting rid of a worse hand.

i dont think calling PF is tht bad, vs some Vils with history obv AQ is a fold but after only 5 hands how good of read can someone have?

but raising flop is horrible. With the range u put him on and ur read u have to think maybe there is a slight chance he tries to win it right away with AK or JJ but more then likely a older nitty man doesnt make tht move.

Its surprising to see how many are in love with AQ here. In this spot, we are FAR more likely to be on the **** end of the stick than the other way around. Its just a fact that seems clear to me.

it's not like we're getting ai preflop.

this is such a standard call pre. It's a fact that just seems clear to me.

Hey look, somebody has got to be at each end of the spectrum. Might as well be us Blue.

true story.

I'll keep staying on the correct side of the spectrum and you can stay on the wrong side

Hey Blue, I admire your staunch determination that your thought processes are correct, and i sincerely believe that you think mine are not. Having said that would you care to play me on FTP HU at some little limit like 1/2 just so i can see your thought process in real time? This is not a calling out, i just like it when players are very confident which makes me want to challenge them. I mean, it aint a lot of money so what could it hurt?

I only play pokerstars and I've played heads up maybe 5 times in my life, all against fish.

i love this...

and lol at "**** end of the stick", never heard that before.

hmmm, i might be able to transfer a little dough over to stars. You up for it.
Cmon, little healthy rivalry is good. Let me know and i will get some money over there.

Hell, maybe you will teach me a lesson.


Oh, and i hardly ever play HU myself, seriously, so its not a scam to sucker you in. I wouldnt do that, at least for that small of money.

that's fine, tell me when you have some