Hero is 20s kid Shortstacking a pretty big 2/5 mustmove avg stack is 200+bb and players are pretty splashy, flops are frequently going multiway for a 5-8bb raise. A mixture of 2/5 deep stack (5/10) players who don't want to sit 5/5 PLO, and rec businessman-fish.

Villain seems incompetent lag and action junkie. Opens light in LP, to a table full of loose-passives; not necessarily bad strat, but I'm to his left and have seen him open and cbet 3x in 2 orbits, all on CO/BU. Also saw him open 86hh OTB, flop pair and gutter and bink OTT, then check the straight behind and bet small OTR, so clearly slow playing what he thinks is the nuts, missing value.

History: ES 75bb I flat his CO open to 4x on BU with black 66 planning to flat and let him barrel turn on good boards. 3-ways to flop 942r EP check, V fires 8bb I flat V2 (horrendous player I have history with) flats behind. Turn 8 completes rainbow, V2 ch, V1 barrels 20bb I shove both fold without much thought.

The hand:

ES $570*

Hero dealt AdTs
Limped 3 ways to button, I open $20 folds to CO, calls.

Flop $40 Td 6d 5c

Checks to Hero bets $25, CO c/r $75 Hero flats.*

Turn $190 3s

CO leads $150, Hero shoves $475 total. CO $325 to win $715, about 2.2:1.

Ad seems like a liability, i.e. I block NFD+pair combos like A3/4dd. V's range contains 0 overpairs, likely no dominated T, so it seems polarized to draws, sets.

I b/c on the flop to see a safe turn and jam after my equity improves (I think I'm a slight dog against the above range OTF). However he only needs about 30% to call, and my shove gets him there. Do you account for V's future equity in deciding whether to flat or shove in this spot?

Thoughts on all streets appreciated.

Pre: I either overlimp or raise bigger. You're ahead of their l/c ranges, but you'll usually be playing 4-ways at such a LP table when you open to 4x over 3 limpers. Your hand doesn't play that great multi-way, and you'll have awkward stacks. It worked out this time, but I open to $30 here to look to get it HU and be able to make a non-committing c-bet OTF.

Flop: Against an "incompetent lag and action junkie," I c-bet bigger too. This flop is actually pretty wet given his l/c range. I go 3/4 pot for pure value. AP, I strongly consider 3-betting his raise. Most of his range is draws here, and having him surrender that equity now is preferable to having to GII OTT when there are so few blanks and his range is so wide, that we're likely to have to commit relatively blind. Still, given that he seems to play in reverse, we can likely be sure he didn't hit if he bets turn big, and check it back if he checks, because giving the free card is less of a mistake than not exploiting him for slow playing nutted hands. Therefore, I don't hate the flat.

Turn: This is a good card for us, and his near PSB is a good indication that it didn't give him a straight. Even a player this wild probably doesn't have much 47 or 24 in his range, and if he did, he'd likely slow-play here, though he might bet out fearing the FD. I like the jam. We're denying odds to his 8-9 out draws, but they'll likely call anyway, and we're close on the 15 outers. We have a lot of outs/chop outs against his 2p range. Only thing we hate are sets.

I like this line better than the 66 line that seemed spewy. In that 66 hand you turned your hand into a bluff for no apparent reason. I'm not sure how you can say there are no dominated Ts in his hand when you describe him as a lag. I would say they are absolutely in his range. The question is whether or not they are in his calling range. Bad LAGs tend to overplay top pair, so I am totally comfortable stacking off on the flop or turn here.

Are Ts in his limp/call range Pre? I would think that T7s-ATs are well within his opening range, but I think he "punishes" limpers rather than overlimping.

Thanks for comments on 66 hand too. I sort of thought that SPR being about 1 gave me some FE against weak 8s and 77, as well as gutters+overs like QT and there are a lot of bad cards coming off the river (plus I hate flatting 30% of stack in any situation, but maybe that's incorrect logic).

Interesting hand.

I generally don't consider V's future equity when deciding on a current street's action. I understand the concept, but I feel it's a bit sophisticated for most of the games/situations I find myself in.

I like Garrick's post and think there are some good thoughts there.

Given your history of the V, my interpretation of his current action is either a biggish draw or set. With your description of an action junkie, I think I like the shove, but it's going to be pretty high variance with a small edge considering the board and action. I'm too lazy to look up whether or not he can be calling profitably with hands like 78dd and 45dd.

raise bigger pre

as played it looks fine given reads

what do you mean by accounting for his future equity? you should be thinking about what types of river cards there are, how they affect the strength of hands in both of your ranges (and total range strength), and the frequency with which these cards will come when planning your actions. in this instance, there are a bunch of different cards that complete draws in different ways, or improve hands like 34s. however, it is important to note that if he has all of these draws on the turn, the river is only going to improve so many of them. for example, here if the river was 9s, completing 78 oesd, that would improve a portion of his range, but the rest of his draws would have bricked. because 78 is a small portion of his draws, comparatively, if he were to shove all his draws when 78 comes in, you should still call because he is bluffing too much. obviously, this is more difficult if the river is the 9d, completing many more draws. you really have to make an estimation of what types of draws he is likely to have on the turn, and how he will play them on a number of different runouts. i think that people are often not willing to do this, because it can be difficult/there is uncertainty, but poker is a game of imperfect information.

shove seems fine here though, and getting it in as a 70/30 favorite is pretty nice

I think you overplayed this hand...

By future equity, I meant shoving against a range of sets and draws gives V correct odds to call. Flatting means bluff-catching OTR where any diamond or low card is bad news (3-9, 2d, Jd-Kd), or a little over half the deck.

Not sure if I'm alone here but given history I'm loving a 3bet on the flop here.

Thoughts guys?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums

I like the line more or less

I want to comment on 3-betting the flop. Imo, 3-betting the flop when we are in position is a mistake. Whenever we have a strong hand and are in position vs an aggro opponent and said aggro check raises us on the flop we almost always want to flat. Reason being is because our flat can be interpreted as us not being all that strong and come turn, villain will be compelled to continue his aggression by betting into us and we can THEN raise him on turn and realize a ton more value. Also, our flat will keep the aggro villain's range wider and full of more hands (including air) that we beat.

We have position, lets use it.

Depending on how the board runs out, by flatting the flop 3-bet, we can wait until turn or river to raise and on each street villain will be leading into us

However, if we re-take the initiative on the flop by 4-betting, we run the risk of slowing down an aggro villain and even folding him out. It's better to let him keep the initiative just a little longer, give him just a little more rope to let him hang himself by pot committing himself when he will be compelled to continue his aggression on almost all turns.

But DGI, what about scare cards?

Scare cards are a factor, but since we are just peeling one street, odds are on our side that turn card won't impact the action too much. The more aggro our villain and the wider his range and higher his tendency to barrel off, then the less we should be afraid of scare cards shutting him down or scare cards hurting us (Basically, LAGs gonna LAG). So its worth it to let him retain the initiative since this means he will barrel into us on turn for a fairly sizable bet and then he will be more likely to be pot committed and make the mistake of playing for stacks. Not to mention that since we only flatted the 3-bet on the flop, our hand isn't quite so face up and V can level himself into thinking his weak sauce hand is actually ahead...

this is player dependent. Against a competent TAG or nitty or passive player, I would 100% agree with you,.

But according to the OP

Against this spew monkey, I think playing for stacks here on a wet board is fine since he can/should have a ton of hands that we beat that will feel compelled to make an incorrect call. Pair + FD, Pair + SD, naked FDs, SDs, and even TPGK can all make incorrect calls against us in this spot.

Very nice post DGI! I was thinking about which street would be better pop him and take the initiave, definitely have to leverage him with the position we have now so a flat on the flop makes more sense thinking about it.

Sent from my Nexus 5 using 2+2 Forums