Hero in SB w KJo. My image is aggro. I have been driving the action usually betting and raising when in hands. Have shown down good hands for the most part and won a lot of pots without showdown. My stack is around 1000.
Villain 1 is CO and is an older guy who is pretty ABC and more on the tight passive side. But I have seen him open raise in LP with KTs. Stack around 1200.
Villain 2 is button sitting on stack of 600. Has lost couple of pots but nothing of note. Average 2/5 rec player. Not titling.
On to the hand...
Folded to villain 1 who opens to 20 from CO, button calls and I raise to 75 from Sb w KJo. Both call.
FLOP (220) Ac Kd Jd
Hero?
This seems like a way ahead way behind kind of spot. I want to get value from weak Aces, flush draws and maybe a king but I know if I get raised I'm in a real bad spot.
First off, I'm not sure I like the squeeze from the SB. If we do get called we're OOP with a marginal hand and a bloated pot. I would need a read that they lay down to 3b A LOT to do this, I think.
As played, I think it's pretty much an obligatory lead here, you 3b pre-flop, I'd assume AA and KK will 4 bet a lot pre-flop (no-one's seen you 3b light, right?), you're only crushed by Q 10 and JJ, you're a flip vs Axhh.
Question is are you leading to snap off the shove from one (but not both) villains?
Don't like the squeeze with hands like KJo b/c the calling range for players you described includes a ton of hands that beat you when you hit (AK/AJ/KQ). I prefer this play with 87s (and similar) so that you can get the same folds on the A/K boards you'd get if you actually did hit something and separately have a shot to hit monsters when it looks like you should have whiffed, all without putting yourself in close situations like this one.
Nonetheless, what's done is done. Bet ~$150, fold to raise.
Hmmm...I'd rather squeeze when my image is tight, not aggro. And I'd be more likely to do it with smaller PPs and suited connectors, though I don't know if this thinking is right. I just hate playing these dominated hands OOP; much prefer hands where decisions are easy.
The problem with KJo here is that half of their range dominates us and the other half we dominate. People can and will play AK/QQ+ this way but we should discount QQ+.
I was originally going to advocate bet/folding but as I think more, it doesn't make sense. The only thing we get value from is AQ. If they call, what's our turn action? I guess we check/fold diamond turns. Non-diamond turns, we need to stick it in and pray they have AQ or a flush draw and aren't just letting us hang ourselves with AK/AJ/QT. Our KJ hand is so awkward because of this.
There are 12 combos of AQ and let's say they fold them 25% of the time (putting us on AK). So 9 combos we beat.
9 combos of AK.
6 of AJ.
3 each of AA/KK -- let's discount these to 2 total.
6 combos of JJ.
9 combos that we beat and 23 that beat us. I'm ignoring worse hands which are folding and I'm ignoring AXdd because I'm on my phone and that equity is complicated. But with this result...maybe we should just c/c and evaluate the turn? On non-diamond turns our equity goes up against their range.
I guess if we let them see a free turn they might improve to worse or improve to better. A ten might come and give KT a worse two pair or any queen a straight. I don't know how this factors in.
This is a really complicated spot. I'm at a loss. =\ I hope something is drastically wrong and nitty with my analysis and that b/f is correct. That's what I'd automatically do here.
Kind of a meh spot for a squeeze. KTs isn't really that wide and BTN will sometimes have stronger hands than he should have like AK/AQ/TT/JJ and will also call with hands that shouldn't call a 3bet like AJ/AT/KQ ect.
HATE the squeeze...button is tight passive nit...yes he opened K10 from co earlier but as a nit he likely isn't flatting much worse than KJ to the open.
