Villian is a TAG/Winning reg. I think he thinks hes one of the best regs in the room, which could be true, but either way I think hes very tight pre.

He probably views me as one of the run of the mill regs that come through once a year and are never seen again after not being able to handle the swings etc. Probably a bit TAG as well but I've shown some single cards that dont fit a TAG players preflop range.

He recently lost a big pot when his overpair was outflopped, he payed the guy off and couldve been tilted, but he should be able to overcome it

Effective stacks are $550 with me covering comfortably.

Villian is UTG and raises to $25
Folds to Hero (CO) with 7 7, Hero calls $25, the rest fold.

Is flatting here ok with no other dead money in the pot against a decent reg who is cbetting A LOT and going to put me in tough spots. I I wasnt sure if flatting was good here.

Flop Heads Up ($57) 7 Q J
Villian bets $35 in rythm, Hero....

I think raising is a must for both protection against a lot of bad turn cards (broadway completing etc) and value against overpairs. We are probably folding out all Q/J though with a raise.

So thoughts on sizing or whether flatting is actually possible for value later. What can we rep with a raise that Villian thinks he can bluff me off later/beat is what I'm really wondering because I fear the answer is nothing and any raise is killing the pot instantly unless hes got the AA/KK.

I think flatting is fine here PF. Stacks are deep enough and you are IP.

I would raise for value. Most turns are going to be scarier for him than you if you just flat. I doubt he's double barreling anyways if he doesn't have much so I wouldn't be too concerned about folding out his weaker holdings.

Plus there are alot of hands he would still call a raise with. I doubt most people are folding AQ or even KQ here, he could have QJ, and some people don't even like to let go of AK when they are steaming. I would make it 85-100.

I'm guessing the only semibluffing hand you can have is T9s, so raising might allow him off the hook earlier than we would like. Calling the flop under reps your hand (obviously), so he might barrel with AK hoping to get you off a pair < TT. It also gives him a chance to spike an ace or king on the turn.

With a rainbow board, I would go ahead a take a chance with a flat on the flop. That makes the pot $127, and gives you a chance to get most of the effective money in on the turn, though you rep a monster there, and he probably b/f if you show serious strength.

What about a fishy raise on the flop to $70-75? Gets the pot close to $200, then you can bet something weird on the turn like $95 and get him to c/r, or bet $180ish if he calls confidently/quickly on the flop. If you build the pot early, you have a better chance of getting stacks in, but you have a better chance of getting some of his chips on the turn if he has AK/TT/AJ, etc. which he would fold to aggression.

If he's very tight pre and continues on this flop, I would consider a donk raise on the flop as your best chance to get it in. He doesn't have air here, and will call for odds w/ AK.

Edit: I know I contradicted myself in this post. Just thinking it through. Final answer: smallish raise

The flat preflop is fine even if you are solely set mining. But we could set mine/outplay if we can get a solid read. Once we flop the set I actually don't like a raise. This is a way ahead way behind spot. He either has AQ, AK for a gutter. or JJ+. Against AA/KK villain has 2 outs, against AK villain has gutter, against AQ we are in heaven, against JJ/QQ we are sad. Raising here would only alarm AA/KK, make QQ/JJ very happy, and maybe fold out AK. I like flatting flop and deciding what to do on the turn. I would like to see villains reaction and bet size on turn before I start raising.

I agree with the above range and analysis unless villain likes to randomize UTG. Why not let villain bet for us? If he doesn't fire a second or third barrel on the turn, our first bet will look a bit weaker since it might have been induced by villain's check.

I don't see why flatting the flop will look overly strong - it is consistent with TPGK. If villain has TPTK (AQ) or an overpair (AA or KK), he will be firing more barrels unless we scare him off.

AK has 4 outs to beat us and 8 outs to a strong second best hand. QQ and JJ already have us beat. Thus, there is not much harm in letting villain draw another card anyway and much (one, posssibly two bets) to be gained through deception.

u know reg means regular right? If u only once a year u r not a regular. I dont hate folding preflop if he is a tough reg who'll put u in hard spots. If it going to be HU with the 2 of u very often (table dependant), i might fold but if is likely going to multiway i flat 77 here always.

Yes I know what reg means, but what I was trying to say was he sees me as someone who will hang around for a extended period of time before eventually moving on (enjoys poker but not making it full time). As if to say he thinks I know what I'm doing but he has an edge on me

IMO it depends on his view of you. If you raise what is he likely to put you on? I like flatting the flop here.

Preflop is good. I'm never folding or 3-betting in that spot.

On the flop, I'm flatting. Obv, I don't know what his aggression level is, but a good winning 2/5 reg generally plays a bet, bet, fold style. Where he keeps betting for value/ semibluff/ occasional bluff, and folds when gets raised. We have position, and don't wanna shut him down. If he thinks you are somewhat afraid of the swings he is likely to keep firing wider.

You should raise most turns, to get the stacks in.

PF is standard, especially if you can win some post w/o flopping a set. OTF, if he would ever play KK+ like QQ or JJ, then I don't think you are getting away from set over set. So, I would ignore those hands and focus on getting value vs the rest of his range. Against AK, TT, and 99, you might get one more bet if you flat and they don't improve, but that is optmistic.

So, I think we focus only on KK+, AQ, KQ, and QJ. If you flat and the turn blanks, he will likely fire again $80-120. You would then have to raise about $400 more to get stacks in. As described, this TAG seems very capable of a fold after such a strong line from you.

Thus, I prefer raising this flop to 85-100. Few players are folding TP or an overpair to a small raise like this, and you may induce him to shove rather than play the rest of the hand oop. If he calls, then you can value bet the turn and river with betsizing such that he will have trouble folding with the large pot. You get more value this way rather than slowplaying the flop.

If you flat, you basically have to flat all turn cards, so you need a pretty good run out for villain to bet/bet/shove with one pair.

Raising flop all day long. First question--are you committed to this hand? Yes, if he has a bigger set congrats and merry Christmas. Second question--how do you manipulate the pot to get stacks in. Think about pot size if you don't raise. After the flop there's 127 in the pot and you both have 490 behind. Turn he bets 90 and you flat, pot is 307 and you still have 400 behind. River he bets 150, you have to raise to 400 which will fold out any TP type hands.

You have to raise at some point, and the flop is the easiest place. Flop raises are much less "serious" than raises on later streets. Make it 100, pot is 257 and you have 335 behind. You can bet half pot on turn and easily get it in on the river. If he had AK and folds to the flop raise, so be it.

I'm not too concerned about balancing this with flop bluff raises against most LLSNL players. If you are, I would also raise stuff like 98, AT, etc here, hands that you probably don't want to call with but have some equity.

What do you think tag reg EP raise reps?
lets give V a pf/utg range:
99+, AQs+, AK, KQs
from this range he probably c-bets 100% of it with what flopped
we dont need to but lets goto the stove anyway:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 78.106% 78.11% 00.00% 120627 0.00 { 77 }
Hand 1: 21.894% 21.89% 00.00% 33813 0.00 { 99+, AQs+, KQs, AKo }

ok as we knew, we crush his range. So how do we maximize. C/C is unlikey to get it all so what street is best to raise on. A turn raise screams set. I really like a small flop raise here.
Lets goto flopzilla:

absolute
set: 11.54%
two pair: 0%
overpair: 23.08%
top pair: 11.54%
middle pair: 0%
weak pair: 23.08%
ace high: 30.77%
no made hand: 0%
OESD: 0%
gutshot: 30.77%
overcards: 30.77%
bckdr fd.(2crd): 13.46%
oesd+pair: 0%
gutshot+pair: 0%
gutshot+overc.: 30.77%

cummulative
set: 11.54%
two pair: 11.54%
overpair: 34.62%
top pair: 46.15%
middle pair: 46.15%
weak pair: 69.23%
ace high: 100%
no made hand: 100%
OESD: 0%
gutshot: 30.77%
overcards: 30.77%
bckdr fd.(2crd): 38.46%
oesd+pair: 0%
gutshot+pair: 0%
gutshot+overc.: 30.77%

As you can see, this flop hits the range we assigned to V pretty hard. (TP or better 46% of the time).
The flop is the easiest street to inflate the pot. Don't miss the opportunity. Raise the flop then bet size the turn and river to get it all in. If V flopped a set you will get stacked. But the sets are only a small part of V;s range the he will continue with ott and otr.

Replying after only reading the OP:

I think if your tight pre read is right, his UTG range here is something like 77+, AQ+, AJs, KQs, QJs, JTs. Maybe sometimes without the suited Broadway below AQ. Maybe sometimes with some SCs built in for defense.

So when he cbets he has:
- 6 combos of higher sets
- 2 combos of QJ
- 12 combos of KK+
- 15 combos of TP
- 12 combos of Overs + gutshot
- he sometimes cbets 88-TT, sometimes checks them

I don't think you need to raise to protect. Too few combos are drawing, and the ones that are are drawing to at most 4 outs.

Some of his air can improve to 2nd best hands - AK.

Some of his 1 pair hands can improve to 2 pair hands.

So just flat. You are keeping your range wide, encouraging him to continue with betting his 1 pair hands, and allow some of his bluffs to barrel. If the turn is a dry brick, you should flat again, or bet 2/3 pot if he checks. If the turn makes the board wet, you should raise his bet small, so if he bets $75 into $125, make it $200. You want to pot-commit him to stack off by the river.

By raising, you are polarizing your range. Most of his cbet range becomes a bluff catcher. So think about a hand like AQ. Say you make it $120. He will likely call. He will probably c/f most turns. If he readily stacks off with TP against a reg then he is not a winning reg you think he is. So lets say you make $80 from him extra if he has AQ if you raise. You should be able to make at least that even if he just c/c turn if you flat. Then on the river, he will have a hard time folding to a 60% pot bet. Sometimes he folds, sometimes he calls. On average he loses more than if you raise flop.