2/5 SB Middle Set 200BB - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

SB Hero $1000
UTG $700 - prototypical OMC, very very narrow preflop raising range
CO $1000 - just sat down. I don't recognize him. Young asian guy, not decked out in expensive accessories, bought in for $1k (BI is $300-$1500 here), knows a couple of the good regs at the table. So I'm assuming he's somewhat of a reg.

UTG raises $35, CO calls, BTN calls, Hero calls with 9

Flop ($140) 8

UTG bets $75, CO raises $225, BTN folds, Hero?

My thoughts

Spoiler:

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02-12-2015 , 08:27 PM

PhillyEagles9

grinder

Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 628

Brutal spot because you could be losing already right now. UTG is not raising 35 pre with QJs or he isnt really an OMC, so he probably has TT-AA.

Sucks you don't have any more reads on the newbie guy. flush draws are in his range. is an already made straight? AJ of clubs?

too deep to shove. calling kind of makes you look like you are on a flush draw, which could help you. i think im raising to $500

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02-12-2015 , 09:48 PM

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Shove. You're crushing all overpairs and have plenty of outs against made straights. You're also still well ahead of most draws. Bad luck if V has TT. You don't want to see another card so get it in now.

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02-12-2015 , 09:54 PM

cxy123

adept

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 786

Ugh just lost a response from my phone cliffs tough spot. Raising may fold worse call by better etc. Or gives v odds to draw unless you basically shove. Does omc fold/call/shove if we call? I need to think about that bc frankly I'm pumped if he shoves. If he calls which I doubt I think that may slow down V and he would play more straightforward imo. But omc probably folds a lot of op which leaves us hating a lot of turn cards with 1psb left oop against competent v. So calling isn't great unless we can figure out omc. I'm not sure. Waiting on some better players to chime in.

Why didn't you lead flop btw?

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02-12-2015 , 10:45 PM

akjohn1

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 60

OMC: I think we can fairly confidently put him on TT+ here. Regardless of what we do, I expect OMC to fold everything by TT.

CO: This is tough. I think his range consists of made hands and big combo draws. 2 pair, sets, 76, QJ, and other combo draws like pair+FD, pair+SD, FD+SD.

We're well ahead of this range, but shoving folds out many of the worse hands.

I think you call and re-evaluate after seeing OMC's action and the turn card.

Don't really like any of the choices though. In thinking about this hand, I went back and forth between pushing and folding before finally landing on calling.

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02-12-2015 , 11:08 PM

BaconMaker

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 555

Flat calling here from the SB looks SUPER strong to any decent player. If CO is paying attention, he has to put you on a monster when you flat here. I'd expect OMC to fold everything but TT, or maybe AcKc if you flat, and CO to get super nervous. I'd flat and evaluate OMCs decision and bet/fold any non club, non Q,J turn for around 300-350$. You can still get called by worse, the FDs, SDs, pair plus draw, and made straights will probably raise which should almost always be the effective nuts.

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02-12-2015 , 11:27 PM

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,254

Grunching …

Ranging UTG on JJ+ / AKs.

No reads on CO, so aside from the nutty hands like QJ/76s/TT/88/T9s/98s, there are FD/pr combo draws in his range. Set over set very unlikely.

If we raise, UTG folds most of range, save AcKc perhaps JcJx. CO may or may not continue with worse. We also commit ourselves with a raise.

Our equity vs. CO equity is pretty close considering an ample range for them. Without that equity edge, I’d call and evaluate OMC action. If he calls and a blank turn falls, I may commit depending on action in front.

Will read OP thoughts and other posts in a bit.

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02-13-2015 , 12:21 AM

p566

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jan 2008 Posts: 3,736

Grunch - before the spoiler

Ok - OMC's narrow PFR range is what, TT+ & sometimes AK? So his only hand of concern is TT and I'm not sure OMCs even have that in their range. I think it's mostly overpairs for him.

UTG is definitely the concern. Does he know OMC? Could he be exploiting OMC's cbet tendencies knowing this is a scary board for an overpair? Or is OMC sticky post-flop?

UTG's range can also include various FD hands A

+, his own pp (88-JJ?), JT+ (especially

but any J).

If neither has TT you have 10 outs twice for 40% equity and there are a lot of draws I could see CO doing this with.

Stack sizes vs. Pot - pot is $440 to you, $665 if you call so any raise or additional bet could be getting AI or very close.

So do we want to shove ourselves and charge all the draws but likely fold almost everything else we beat (except 88?). I think other than overpairs, everything is such a draw.

The question for this decision is whether OMC will call $225 where he would fold to a raise. It's nice to have that additional dead money if we can get it.

I think I call and if a horrible card like 7

or Q

comes on the turn, we have to reevaluate.
After spoiler:
I forgot 2 pair hands so that makes me even more inclined to stay in the hand. Your concerns that OMC might fold make me inclined to GII now.

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02-13-2015 , 05:18 AM

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Pros to flatting:

-Get him to value own himself on turn blanks with hands that might fold to a shove(2 pair, bottom set)
-Unlikely scenario but could get him off a straight if it comes runner runner clubs and he checks behind on turn or just get to see a river for free if flush comes in on turn and he checks behind
-He might even ship combo draws on turn blanks when our equity is a lot higher

Pros to shoving:
-Get value out of/don't have to play OOP against combo draws

Seems like there's more merit to flatting.

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02-13-2015 , 05:31 AM

#10

Bluegrassplayer

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 40,246

gross spot, id fold. in position id call

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 02-13-2015 at 05:55 AM.

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02-13-2015 , 05:38 AM

#11

tolis

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2013 Posts: 1,465

I consider myself pretty bad in deep games but would u guys really expect him to raise a made str8 and chase out the 2 players left to act?

Sent from my GT-I8190 using 2+2 Forums

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02-13-2015 , 05:39 AM

#12

Gilmour

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2013 Posts: 3,930

As usual there is pros and cons for both flatting, raising and even folding in this spot.

When i started doing some reflections last night when DK posted this hand- i remembered something a very good swedish cashgamepro told me during a session in Gothenburgs casino last summer. It was after i made barrell number three on a river that was bringing 4 to a straight on the board, i had a set and a big whale paid me off with 2 pair. As i stacked the chips the very skilled swedish pro striked a big smile and said to me: "Nice bet, you cant be put on a bluff unless you bet".

So in this scenario, does 3 bet shoving right here have any merit? The more i think about, the more i believe so.

1) Its already lots of "dead" money in the pot,do we mind at all if we gets villain to fold combos that have equity against us like pair+ flushdraw or pair+ straightdraw by applying maximum pressure?

2)If we raise or shove here, i feel like we actually are widening our range with the aggressive line instead of the oposite due to the story i started this post with. We cant be put on a bluff/semibluff unless we bet or in this case raise. Especially because villain doesent know heros game, the line can look pretty full of fancy play syndrome and semibluffing hands that want to end the hand right here-for example the nut flush draw.

I would not be surprised if villain can level himself into stacking off with 2 pair hands if we take this line, wich we have absolutely crushed.

3) How many turn cards are bricks to us if we do choose to flat? I mean,the deck is loaded with scare cards for our hand and we are risking being outplayed on later streets with a bloated pot OOP and without the betting lead.

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02-13-2015 , 09:03 AM

#13

Nice_Guy_Eddie

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2010 Posts: 2,135

Quote:

Originally Posted by Gilmour

1) Its already lots of "dead" money in the pot,do we mind at all if we gets villain to fold combos that have equity against us like pair+ flushdraw or pair+ straightdraw by applying maximum pressure?

2)If we raise or shove here, i feel like we actually are widening our range with the aggressive line instead of the oposite due to the story i started this post with. We cant be put on a bluff/semibluff unless we bet or in this case raise. Especially because villain doesent know heros game, the line can look pretty full of fancy play syndrome and semibluffing hands that want to end the hand right here-for example the nut flush draw.

I would not be surprised if villain can level himself into stacking off with 2 pair hands if we take this line, wich we have absolutely crushed.

3) How many turn cards are bricks to us if we do choose to flat? I mean,the deck is loaded with scare cards for our hand and we are risking being outplayed on later streets with a bloated pot OOP and without the betting lead.

+1. Great analysis

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02-13-2015 , 09:17 AM

#14

akjohn1

enthusiast

Join Date: Jan 2015 Posts: 60

Quote:

Originally Posted by tolis

I consider myself pretty bad in deep games but would u guys really expect him to raise a made str8 and chase out the 2 players left to act?

Sent from my GT-I8190 using 2+2 Forums

I believe so, yes. Were I in the CO with a flopped straight (especially the low end) I would absolutely raise the flop. Too much risk of (1) flush draw hitting (2) board pairing on a very wet board for 2 pair and sets, and (3) straight getting counterfit by a 4 straight hitting the turn.

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02-13-2015 , 10:07 AM

#15

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,254

Just the read the spoiler and other posts. Realized we are oop

nasty!

Raising certainly makes playing the rest of the hand easier. It may also widen our perceived range to include non-nut hands.

Still think flatting is best given the lack of an equity edge.

Anyone like leading the flop? B/C, evaluate turn?

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02-13-2015 , 11:30 AM

#16

bshu

newbie

Join Date: Dec 2014 Posts: 27

hands that call (47 hands)
32 straight combos
6 TT
6 JJ
3 88

Rest (~30+ hands)
10-12 random Acx and maybe Kcx 1p with high club etc.
6 JJ combos
3 T9
3 98
9 T8
x JT combos?
x 87 combos?

basically he has to call with his entire 2p range. And because we block a lot T9 and 98, T8 is the 2p hand we need V to call with. Or a lot of JT hands which i dont think he raises much so he cant have a complement of those but maybe I am wrong. 87 - ehh i doubt it.

Assume we shove
60% of time he calls and we are mostly dominated - 65/35. So 2100 pot we have $735 equity

40% of time he folds and we win 420.

really close. if people think he calls with those 2p hands then I think we can shove.

I am not saying i didnt make a mistake above or this is definitive. please let me know if i am off.

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02-13-2015 , 12:02 PM

#17

nwolfe

adept

Join Date: Mar 2012 Posts: 850

We're 30% against QJcc, so he's almost setting the right price for us to draw if he only has the nuts with redraw. I think we can be slightly more optimistic than that, so I'm in the 'call' camp. UTG should have an overpair that he's folding, we can play poker ott.

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02-13-2015 , 12:30 PM

#18

beauvanlaanen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 12,487

I think Hero should raise. I find it hard to believe a true OMC would raise QJ to 7x pre flop, I think OMC has QQ KK AA here almost always. The new guy could have all sorts of combo draws that we are ahead of right now. I think I would raise, but I don't know if I would make a small raise to $500ish or shove...

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02-13-2015 , 01:48 PM

#19

Dubey

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2006 Posts: 1,844

If we had position I like flatting. Unfortunately though, from the SB, our flat is going to look really strong, and if these guys are paying attention, we could see some strong hands check the turn through, which would be a disaster.

I think I like a shove. Any raise is going to look strong. May as well make it look like you want some folds. May get a crying call from 2-pair or 88, or even JJ or QQ.

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02-13-2015 , 03:23 PM

#20

DK Barrel

Concept of the Week author

Join Date: Aug 2011 Posts: 6,797

Results

Spoiler:

I actually ended up folding. I reasoned that I was probably, equity-wise, flipping against CO's range. I wasn't sure exactly what that range was but thought something like

most likely {QJ, TT, 88, T9}
perhaps {AJcc+, KJcc, JT}
maybe?? {JJ, T8, 76s (76o?)}

Note that my equity doesn't change much no matter how "optimistic" I am about his range. I'm 40%-45% in each scenario overall (when giving UTG a range of JJ+ too)

Ordinarily flipping with dead money would be great but I also reasoned that I would be getting more money in more often against the part of his range I was behind in this spot, due to being OOP and having to act after a raise. If I had $500 effective it'd be a trivial jam. I think it could also be a shove if UTG was more committed (had he bet bigger on the flop and had a bit smaller stack) since we'd be much more likely to have his dead money play in that case. I also figured it was more likely CO would be raising for fat value as opposed to a semi-bluff (not having a read, virtually all players are gonna raise QJ in this spot at least for "protection", but not all of them play combo draws aggressively. some would just call a hand like JT. so if there's only a 50% chance he raises JT I can only count half the combos)

It was a tricky spot because I had to consider a lot of stuff I didn't have any info on
- what is CO's preflop range exactly?
- what is CO's raising range?
- is UTG still paying off after a raise and cold-call/3b?
- can I get value from CO's worse, how much, and what's the best way to do it?

and you know, the whole being OOP with a face-up hand.

I think folding is sub-optimal, but think it was the best choice for me in that spot. If it was a mistake it wasn't too large and I kept out of trouble.

Turn was a brick, UTG check/called all-in with KK and lost to CO's AA. Which I never expected him to have of course, and I'm not sure if I get any value... Or maybe they both can't fold an overpair and I missed out on a boatload of value. It was an odd spot.

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02-13-2015 , 03:32 PM

#21

cxy123

adept

Join Date: Oct 2011 Posts: 786

thanks for results and commentary.

wow - did not put AA in CO range at all.

dont hate the fold at all.

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02-13-2015 , 04:28 PM

#22

beauvanlaanen

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 12,487

Quote:

Originally Posted by DK Barrel

Results

Spoiler:

This result is why I wouldn't fold. You don't know enough about V to give him credit for a huge hand and at 2/5 most people don't fold over pairs no matter how scary the board is. In game, and with you explanation I understand why you folded though.

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02-13-2015 , 04:52 PM

#23

mikko

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2012 Posts: 2,863

DK, nice post.

Gross spot. (I could never find a fold there.) Nice analysis. Did your bankroll or your current state of mind (running bad) play a factor in decision?

I do think you are giving villains way to much credit there. I think generally this whole forum does. In return, I catch myself doing it too.

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02-13-2015 , 04:57 PM

#24

samo

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 4,254

Quote:

Originally Posted by DK Barrel

Results

Nice spot to post. 3 key challenges:
1) Position
2) No reads on CO
3) Deep

Tricky to model accurately how to go about getting a fair return on a $225 call. Some outs to improve our hand may even be taken.