2/5

villain 1-UTG-($1000) is a LAG, white in his 30s on the waiting list for 5/10. I've been playing with him for about an hour up to this point. He's been raising a lot preflop. He seems to peel a lot on the flop but will usually give up on the turn. One hand that he showed down is that he called a nit down with pocket 2s who opened UTG and bet all three streets on a 765 T8. He was good.

villain 2-UTG+1($800)-loose passive preflop, weak tight postflop, black in his 50s.

hero-MP1-($1300) is asian in his 30s. I've been fairly active and have been getting good cards all day. Did not show down a hand all night.

villain 1 opens to $20, villain 2 calls, I call with TT. rest fold.

pot $67
flop-J36
villain 1 checks, I bet $45, villain 1 calls, villain 2 folds

pot $157
turn-Q
villain 1 checks, I bet $90, villain 1 calls

pot $337
river-T
villain 1 open shoves $845, hero?

Yuck, and I think it's a fold. It's difficult to imagine Villain being at the river with and then shoving any Bdwy PP. The only non-bluffy hands that might make some sort of sense for a LAG, aside from AK, would be a weird, Bdwy two-pair.

Consequently, although in the heat of the moment I might call, I think the best play is to fold.

without reads this is tough, as we dont know whether he balances his open shoving range with the nuts / air or if he's subconsciously preferential toward one

unfortantely tho, your hand is only a bluffcatcher (even tho its super underrepped) as dont think he's bombing this with AQ/JQ for value considering his other hand where he understands hands with sdv

if you havent seen him do this before, i would fold

also, why did you bet the turn?

So far in my experience, most live over bet shoves are for value and rarely for bluffs. However, you have to consider if he thinks that J10 or QJ is a value hand. He might have AK and decided to peel the flop and stick around since the turn improved his hand and he seems to peel light. The fact that he stuck around after the turn should say that he likes his hand.

By the way, what were you planning to do if the river was 2c and he checks it to you instead?

Instafold. From what you've posted this guy has shown passive tendancies, including in this hand and then suddenly shoves for like 2.5x pot. We know that he could have called you with a very wide range of hands including a gutshot draw. AK is very likely here. If for some reason he just decided to be a spewtard here, then nice hand sir, your bluff worked.

My plan was to check behind any river since I felt that he was either calling me down with an underpair or overs-hands which he would not call a river bet anyway. I thought there was a slight possibility that he could have flopped and set and decided to be tricky.

When he bet the river, it confused me because most villains in my games would only bet a straight in this scenario. However, this guy usually plays 5/10 and might be capable of betting here with less for value or as a bluff. Also, his bet was so big in relation to the pot size.

I never said he was passive. I just said that he peels light. He's actually pretty aggressive.

I think both betting or checking OTT has it merits. At the time, my thinking was that perhaps I can get value from 77,88,99 as well as charge overs. I tend to bet fold when unsure.

He's repping pretty much AK only.

If he's a $5/10 reg and the money here seems insignificant to him, I think I close my eyes and call.

I agree that V is repping AK, but cant this also be a set?

JJ, 66 definitely, and possibly also 33 are all in V's range given he was the preflop raiser and is clearly competent. Maybe unorthodox play, but definitely needs to be factored in.

his hand doesn't make sense.

he has 66, 33 never and jj like 1%. Good lags don't play sets like dumbo fish who slowplay till they are beat and then shovel money in.

I agree with this. Unless you have a read that indicates he's messing with you fold, fold, fold.

In real life, I could see myself calling and hating myself for it.

I would expect a good lag to take advantage of their image and cbet the flop with a set. He probably does not have a set of jacks, 6's or 3's because a) he didn't cbet, b) he didn't raise the turn, c)he shoved when a somewhat scary river came in. All these things combined tell me it's unlikely that he has a set. At the same time, however, he seems like someone that is capable of merging his value range and playing tricky.

It's highly unlikely he has a set of queens because I would expect him to cbet the flop with an overpair.

All 3 flopped sets are likely in his range... Not sure on 2pair hands--if that's in his value-overbet range, then a call is easily in order.

Really effed up spot.

Pretty easy call imo, he never has ak or qq, jj is a cooler

see your observation about him peeling the flop a lot supports the argument for exactly AK diamonds. Only other hand I see him playing like this is JJ but wow not even sure what I'd do-i think i have to fold

I don't get how a lag ch calls the flip with akdd

You're never getting 3 streets of value on the flop. Betting the turn is basically turning your hand into a bluff while you have plenty of SD value.

Check back turn and then you can go into bluff catching mode on brick rivers. Or in this case not betting turn and having the T hit allows you to snap off his bet while winning the max and losing the min.

What does he have then? Bluff or value?

So...it would be ******ed for him to not c/r turn with QQ, JJ, QJ, 66, 33. AK is just so weird, but that's what he's repping. Could also have like A6dd. Plus you're saying he raises a lot PF, so im not thinking an EP range heavily weighted to AK...

**** it, just call. This line makes no sense, and you definitely are underrepped; it looks like your whole range has to fold.

It depends if you think he can show up with worse value hands imo. I don't think he takes this line as a bluff close to ever.

In practice I call. I DO think he can have AK sometimes though.

if he peels light I have to keep AK in his range.

such a crappy spot, I think I have to make this call otherwise i won't sleep well that night. He's repping only AK and from his perspective, we will have to fold the majority of our range.

I am on my phone and tbh op's reads left a lot to be desired but I think 55/66 shipping the river because of your two pair combos in your range are just as likely as akdd or jj. Tbh shipping with 66 makes more sense than jj. I'm not fist pumping but like without a serious read I can't fold here.

+1

What happened?