2-5 River value betting with top set on scaryish board - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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2-5 River value betting with top set on scaryish board

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12-15-2012 , 04:39 PM

Nitty by Nature

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 347

Hero MP ($525): Just sat down from a must move table an orbit ago. No real action of note. I am in my twenties, so might be viewed as more aggro.

Villain BB ($1200): Older gentleman, probably late 50s. Hasn't played any hands thus far.

Pre: after one limper, hero raises 10

to $25. V calls, EP limper calls.

Flop ($75): 10

V checks, Hero bets $50, V calls.
Turn ($175): 3

V checks in the dark, Hero bets $115, V TANK calls.
River ($405): 6

V checks, Hero??

Who is value betting here? I have $335 left.

And what about sizing? If we bet small and and V shoves, can we find the fold button?

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12-15-2012 , 04:51 PM

Jibber

grinder

Join Date: Oct 2012 Posts: 486

I think I check/fold. It's really hard to come up with worse hands that call us on this river since we block two of the tens, and the other ten can be combod with diamonds. He probably checks back a naked ten, but I don't think he calls us unless we bet really really small on the river. Slowplayed aces call cause they never fold regardless of board runout. We potentially miss value from a set, but I think those raise somewhere before the river. Would need info if he is likely to bluff busted clubs. If you bet and he shoves you are good just about never.

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12-15-2012 , 04:55 PM

rizasutton

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,274

Ship

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12-15-2012 , 04:55 PM

maggler

centurion

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 154

I bet bigger on flop and turn since we are looking to get it in and want to punish draws. The river is a nasty spot. You can't really fold if you get re-raised, might as well jam I guess. V probably would have bet if he hit his flush, he may be dumb enough to call with an overpair or random two pair.

BTW I assume EP limper folded OTF?

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12-15-2012 , 05:00 PM

BenT07891

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,641

I'd put his range as mostly busted flush draws, sometimes JJ, A10/K10/Q10/J10, sometimes 99,88, or A7, and very rarely a completed draw.

I'd shove.

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12-15-2012 , 05:15 PM

Mr Spyutastic

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2012 Posts: 15,531

This is a mandatory all in, given stack sizes and that he's an old man and you're young kid.

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12-15-2012 , 05:17 PM

stevesmith1980

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 308

Hellmuth insta-shove.

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12-15-2012 , 05:22 PM

SABR42

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 23,304

I'd bet like $225 or something.

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12-15-2012 , 05:24 PM

stevesmith1980

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 308

Quote:

Originally Posted by SABR42

I'd bet like $225 or something.

Depends. To me that screams super strong. I'm more likely to call an insta shove then a ridiculous river bet that leaves my opponent a middling amount left behind.

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12-15-2012 , 06:53 PM

#10

Nitty by Nature

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2012 Posts: 347

Quote:

BTW I assume EP limper folded OTF?

Yes, EP limper folded flop.

I should have bet more on flop/turn to get an easier shoving stack on the river for sure.

I made a tiny value bet of $125 with intention of soul reading a shove from V.

Two questions:
1.) I think a shove get's called less frequently by worse but to what extent?

2.) Is it bad to fold to a shove? The small bet on the river might induce a shove-bluff from worse or from his missed draw, but I don't think too many 2-5 villains are capable of check raise shoving on the river as a bluff...

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