800 eff, 2/5 at the v, I am new to game- villian is young reg creative/good player that I've seen before


I open AQ utg +1 to 20, villian calls in hj, sb calls, bb calls


Flop 10 88 rainbow


I bet 55, v calls, blinds fold


Turn Kx

I bet 120, v thinks and calls

River Qx


We?


Based on his flop call I thought he was most likely floating, turn is a good barreling card but he knows this as well


River I'm not sure whether to ck/call or bet/call... J9 got home, this guys capable of bruff raises etc


If we bet what size? Or is ck call better?

doubt he's floating flop with two players left to act behind. cbet is spewy into three opponents on this texture as well.

without some crazy dynamic I doubt he is bluff raising if you bet otr, or calling with worse, so I would lean towards a c/eval, and possibly call if you really think he is capable of bluffing in a terrible spot where it looks like you are never folding.

You raised pre in early position, cbet into 3 people on a bad c-betting texture, and fired again OTT. If I'm villain, your line is looking pretty strong. I doubt he's floating the turn. My first instinct is to c/f the river.

Once he calls you on the turn, I'm done with this hand.

That K hits square in your preflop raising range and I seriously doubt he continues with Tx type hands. So if he calls the turn bet his range is most likely 8x, KT, Kx, J9, 97, TT

out of that range we are only ahead of 97.

River is a c/f imo.

If we feel V is capable of bluffing a lot then I guess we can c/c but overall this a crappy spot to be against a competent villain.

As for the flop c-bet... I think its meh, not great not terrible. Both blinds did check to us so we only have one more player to fade so c-betting here imo isn't terrible providing most players fold. If we c-bet here and V calls and the either of the blinds c/c us then warning sirens need to go off because that is almost exclusively 8x.

As played, our flop c-bet allows us to rep a K when we double barrel on the turn and Tx has to more or less fold. The only way Tx calls is if it picked up an additional draw on the turn like a FD. But since you don't indicate that, then V's hand looks pretty strong as KT, J9, 97, or 8x or a near nutted TT

so yeah, I'm probably c/f river

Bet call would be horrible. Please don't do that.

Dgi idk why you say we only need to fade one person on the cbet..

The blinds are both uncapped despite the check because they'd check 8x and Tx to the PFR. They are also not folding JJ and 99 so I doubt we get folds often enough to make cbetting +EV

There is also not many hands that will call that will also fold the turn often enough to a 2-barrel to make that profitable.

Flop is a clear ch/f. We can re-eval turn if it gets checked back to us

As played, river is also a ch/f. We don't get value from anything, and villain shouldn't be bluffing any hands. A lot of his floats got there OTT (but he's not floating OTF when you're flop betting range SHOULD be pretty tight and two players are left behind him), J9 got there, a lot of his Tx now have 2p.

Duke is spoton

To be clear, my view on the flop c-bet is that its meh. I should have said it is slightly -EV and very very close to 0 EV vs 3 players.

When we c-bet this flop and if either blind c/c us we are just screwed and should absolutely surrender since their ranges will often be wider and contain 8x, however the remaining player's range should be weighted more to Tx and draws and under pairs along with 8x...

The turn double barrel to me is also meh, but in the context of our overall game I don't mind since the turn bet should fold out almost all Tx hands and underpairs. However, once V calls the turn we need to wave the white flag unless we bink a J on the river. Q on the river is like the worst card for us because now our hand is just good enough to pay off V's entire range that beats us...

So to be clear, I'm not dancing a jig on our flop c-bet. But imo, its not terrible when viewed against the whole of our overall game. Or put another way, if we had JJ+ would we still c-bet or would we c/f or c/c flop?

EDIT: when I said we needed to fade one person, that was just taking into account both blinds checked. Obviously they are still in the hand but they turn their hands face up if they check/call us. I don't mind making my decision based on the information I currently have then reevaluating my decision if/when new information surfaces. And so far, the info I have is that both blinds checked and I'm left with one more player. So I have no qualms betting and THEN reevaluating...

as far as you should be concerned you have zero info on the strength of the blinds hands when checked too otf. It is a big mistake to treat your flop cbet as if it were a HU situation because both blinds are still uncapped since they are likely checking their entire range to the PFR on this board texture.

not sure why how we would play a value hand like JJs+ has anything to do with how we should play a total air ball on this flop. why would you have to c/f or c/c with JJs if you are c/f with AQ here?

we c/f AQ because we get get value from nothing and never get better to fold

We bet JJ because we get value from many hands

If you're thinking about balance, its unnecessary. Our bluffing range OTF should be hands that have some kind of equity such as J9, Q9, and 97. This will negate our low FE and also balance out our range so villains cannot exploit us by folding QT and JT and 99. (But lol at them even doing that ever, and lol at us doing anything for balance)

AQ has almost no equity if called so its a pretty big mistake to cbet it here. I wouldn't say its close to 0ev.

Results: I choose the worst of all options... I bet 120... He thinks and makes it 350.... I fold and he shows QJ... I run into the <5% of 2/5 players who turn their hand into a bruff here- my gut said call since he was capable but I'm doing a research project on the number of times bet/calling a river is successful and so far it's 0/5 this year... But my pathetic sizing and lack of a plan induced this


I wish I had ck called or bet even smaller and stuffed over the top to fold out random ks in his range and possibly KQ- I really think if I can 4bet shove on river he might dump toppest 2 pairs

x/f flop, x/f turn, x/c river. He can easily be doing this with a suited 8x hand. 89 87 86 and just not want to bloat the pot. When you calls you otf when you cbet into 3 people he shouldn't be floating.

Beau most of your advice is pretty good but this is far from a check/call on the river. What hands is he betting that we beat except (optimistically) 97o?

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