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2/5 river bluff opportunity 2/5 river bluff opportunity

02-02-2017 , 11:49 PM
2/5 NL cash game

V1 - 320 stack in middle position. I have not observed any notable hands with him. So far he does not seem particularly aggressive but not super passive either.

V2 - Largest stack on button. He seems to call too many raises, but I have not seen him get out of line yet. He might be considered an ABC player.

Hero - 384 stack in the small blind with the tightest image at the table. I have been folding almost 90% of my hands.

I am dealt Qh, 10d in the small blind.

V1 and V2 both limp, I complete, and big blind checks. (20 in the pot)

Flop comes Ah, Js, 8c. Me and big blind check, V1 bets 20, V2 and I call. Big blind folds. (80)

Turn comes 3h. I check, V1 bets 40, V2 and I call. (200)

River comes 7h. I check, V1 bets 60, V2 folds. Hero? Comments on other decisions also welcome.
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02-03-2017 , 12:17 AM
First, I'm not thrilled with QTo from any position, even less from the SB. However, for $3 into a $15 pot (not $20, you don't get to keep the drop), sometimes.

The flop gives you a double gutter and the odds are basically 2:1, so I suppose, but can you get paid if you connect? Still, if you want to bluff, I think the flop is the spot.

I don't like the turn call and without better reads a river bluff seems like spew to me.

In fact, without a better feel for the table dynamics, I don't like the flop call either.
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02-03-2017 , 12:25 AM
I don't mind a raise here trying to rep 2p, or straight if you were deeper. Villain only has $200 left with $260 in the pot, i can't imagine our fold equity is high enough to make this play profitable even though his small bets seem crazy weak.


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02-03-2017 , 12:25 AM
you're trying to get a half-stacked rando to three-barrel/fold with only 40bb behind, I absolutely hate this. It's literally the worst thing you could do here (it's worse than calling with Q high, I'm not even kidding).

if you think it's close, help me understand:
- what combinations of hands do you think he three barrels into two players?
- of those hands, which combinations fold?

I would never check/raise the flop or turn either, not three-way and not without a read.
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02-03-2017 , 12:31 AM
I'd raise flop to 80. Dry flop so hard for people to continue especially since they both limped pre and shouldn't have big aces. We have 8 outs to the nuts and QT and T9 are the only drawing hands we have to bluff with.

The way you played was ok too, since your implied odds are good, but fold to River bet. V1 has put almost half his stack and you haven't shown any aggression. If you hit the straight or BD flush presumably you'd lead River.
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02-03-2017 , 01:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MIB211
I'd raise flop to 80. Dry flop so hard for people to continue especially since they both limped pre and shouldn't have big aces. We have 8 outs to the nuts and QT and T9 are the only drawing hands we have to bluff with.

The way you played was ok too, since your implied odds are good, but fold to River bet. V1 has put almost half his stack and you haven't shown any aggression. If you hit the straight or BD flush presumably you'd lead River.


I don't consider this dry, and wouldn't check raise into two V's after V just potted the flop with less than 100bbs


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02-03-2017 , 11:39 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by WhskyRiv
I don't consider this dry, and wouldn't check raise into two V's after V just potted the flop with less than 100bbs


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V limped pre, so he almost certainly doesn't have AA, JJ or AJ, or even AK or AQ. The only other hands that love this flop are 88, J8 and A8. Compare that to all his weak Ax (where x is T or less) or Jx that would bet here, but can't a lot of heat, and I think this is a great spot to semi-bluff.
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02-03-2017 , 12:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SameRiverTwice
you're trying to get a half-stacked rando to three-barrel/fold with only 40bb behind, I absolutely hate this. It's literally the worst thing you could do here (it's worse than calling with Q high, I'm not even kidding).

if you think it's close, help me understand:
- what combinations of hands do you think he three barrels into two players?
- of those hands, which combinations fold?

I would never check/raise the flop or turn either, not three-way and not without a read.
This analysis seems reasonable. For any strong hand on this board, villain can have any of them given his line.
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02-03-2017 , 12:40 PM
Lead flop
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02-03-2017 , 02:14 PM
Maybe if you all had more behind and you'd observed V1 sigh-fold previously then I wouldn't mind this line. I'd also like it better if the flush was a front door one so we had more credible bluff outs.

With an info deficit and small stacks, I'd just let it go. I'm sure our image helps us though.
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02-04-2017 , 07:19 AM
I folded. He did not show but said that he had a set and was scared of a flush. That comment made me wonder if I missed an opportunity, but it seems like folding was the best play after all.
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02-04-2017 , 01:08 PM
Never bluffing here. He limped then 3 barreled. I'd put him on A8 or some random two pair. I guess a set is possible but that's pretty timid sizing.

You also rep absolutely nothing. What story are you selling? You limped 9-10 and rivered a straight? You limped and slowplayed pockst 8s and then bet them once the flush hit? I'm calling that down with any hand I felt good enough to 3 barrel. If we were deep maybe I'd give you credit for backdoor hearts but not with these stacks.
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