Hi all,

V has been VPIPing a decent amount, 50 y/o recreational, certainly no nit. We are $900 eff. with him. He opens the co to $15 and we are otb with QJo and 3! to $50. He calls after thinking a while.

996r. ($100) he checks we bet $60, he calls. Targeting his A-highs here.

Turn ($220): 2. He checks, we bet $150, he calls. Trying to get his mid and small pairs to fold.

River ($520): J. He checks. We bet $225 for value.

Thanks,
DT

Recs are generally non-believers on paired boards, ime, especially in 3-bet pots. He doesn't think you have any 9s in your range, and thinks his 77/88/TT is often good. I give up OTT when a blank like that hits.

AP, I don't mind the river bet. You might get value, and if you don't, at least you don't have to show. Obv you value cut yourself occasionally, but I think it's pretty rare.

Yeh fully agree with the guy above. The river is actually really close imo - what's his range by the river that also call your 3b? 66,98s,97s,22,33-TT? Not sure what he does with AA/KK/QQ as well. The problem is it's not just what range calls your river bet but at what frequency. 66 is obviously never folding yet 88 might fold 50% of the time. 33-77 I think rarely if ever calls, so factoring in the better hands he can have here I think the river is a check.

Of course, QJo is too weak unless he folds a ton to 3!. If he does fold a ton to 3! we should be more worried when he calls.

You can stab at the flop a little smaller if you're targeting A high.

Probably just take a free card OTT. Your line is starting to get a bit maniacal. i.e. you're 3 betting pretty light, then just blasting away trying to get V to fold his whole range on a board where he shouldn't.

River seems fine.

QJo is fine to mix a 3bet or fold pre from these positions, like 1/3 3bet 2/3 fold

River maybe is okay as an exploitative bet fold. In theory we shouldn't be betting in position for such small sizing here. If a hand isn't worth betting like 60% pot or more on the river, then it's probably not worth opening back up the betting action. BUT as an exploit if we believe villain is only jamming river when we are beat and never bluffing, we can go for disrespectful value here.

Every once in a blue moon I have found a spot like this to check raise massive on the river to induce a fold when it looks like villain is going for thin value and is never planning on bet calling. But there really isn't enough of an effective stack behind here, and honestly most players are just not doing this, so I can probably get on board with an exploitative very thin value bet.

Flop bet size is too large imo. What do you accomplish here that 33% or 50% doesn't accomplish? We can get some better to fold by betting smaller, and we deny equity by some random hands. Turn range is now stronger and it is harder to get him to fold. 33% flop and 67%/75% turn is overall more efficient imo.

You bet the turn to get his mid and small pairs to fold. Once he calls turn by your logic 1010 is the only hand he should get to the river with that you beat that may call a value bet. Checking river seems much better if you are looking to put more money in the pot. Maybe he blasts off with a fush draw or 78. Or maybe he checks back something like QQ. Just not sure what hand your river bet is targeting that gets here other than as mentioned 1010?

Really targeting mid pairs that got sticky on the turn, that’s about it on the river. Including TT.

No 4! pre so discounted big pairs.

50 yr old rec. discount AA to near zero, maybe 1/4 of a combo. Maybe you can discount a combo or two of KK from 6 to 4 or 5. Im not discounting QQ or JJ at all.

Thats about 12 combos you are behind. 1010 is 6 combos. This is not even counting the suited connectors or gappers that give him trips. You think 77 or 88 is going to call three streets? Not where I play. Seems to me like its a pretty clear check and evaluate river. Think you are beat well over half the time you get your bet called.

Larry, it seems like hero is in position and vil has already checked the river. So now it's a question of value bet or take the free showdown.
Only 1 combo of JJ, and our hand blocks half the QQs...meanwhile all 6 TT combos remain.

I forgot that we hold a Q. So 1 combo JJ we can discount by 1/2 for not betting. 3 combos of QQ. Im discounting 1010 to 4.5 combos as I think he folds 1 or 2 on the turn or river bet. 4.5 combos of KK. 1/4 combo of AA I think he bets at some point discounted to 0 combos. Still is 8 combos to 4.5 we lose to.

By the turn, we have compressed the hell out of V's range. He has no air left.

But it's possible to compress a V's range without really defining it precisely. I think that's what we've done here. V could easily play AA the same way. Is V really capped having closed the action preflop and letting possibly wide BTN Hero blast away on flop and turn?

AP river: I'd rather take my showdown value than make a value bet. We offer V 3-1 on his call. What is V folding here getting 3-1 on his call? So minimal FE while targeting a very narrow range for value seems suboptimal.

So I'd rather jam river as played. H has as many JJ as Villain. In fact, H has repped something like JJ/QQ the whole way, given our protective bet sizing. With ~640 behind, H gives V under 2-1 to call and makes it very hard for V to call with QQ and maybe V can even fold KK.

So jam>check-showdown>value bet for me.

Never really gave this much thought and I agree its better than value betting this hand. It would make it really hard for a decent V to call with QQ. The problem is he is a 50 year old rec, so Im inclined to believe he will have a hard time folding QQ. I also may have discounted AA too much, maybe it should be a combo or two in the analysis.

I still think taking showdown value vs the compressed range of a recreational player is the way to go. Recs hate folding big pocket pairs, even to jams, and 1010 is really the only hand you beat on the river that may call a reasonable amount. And we have not even really spoke about the possibility that this is a rec slow playing his trips. There are some combos of that in there. 98s, 109s, A9s. Again recs don’t like folding to 3bets